財經報告之二 --- 是G8改變的時候了（一）

《高盛經濟報告》, Jim O’Neill，Robert Hormats

 

[摘要] 在增長前景不明朗、通貨膨脹上升、石油價格達到創紀錄高水平的時代，誰能引導世界經濟呢？現有的國際組織能夠勝任這一工作嗎？或者，現在是否應改革全球經濟結構，給新興經濟體以更大的發言權？未來幾年這些國家將在世界經濟中發揮越來越重要的作用。 我們的著名觀點是現有的國際機構，特別是七國集團，已經過時了，應該被徹底改革。5月七國集團財長發表聲明，呼籲產油國擴大生產，以平抑上漲的原油價格，是該觀點的進一步證據。對我們來說最有趣的是，這是七國集團連續第四次對其無法直接控製的事情發表聲明。之前三次七國集團會議令人注意的是，七國集團呼籲非該集團的亞洲國家采取更加富有彈性的貨幣製度。

　　（海外論壇·北京）誰會聽從七國集團呢？
　　
　　在增長前景不明朗、通貨膨脹上升、石油價格達到創紀錄高水平的時代，誰能引導世界經濟呢？現有的國際組織能夠勝任這一工作嗎？或者，現在是否應改革全球經濟結構，給新興經濟體以更大的發言權？未來幾年這些國家將在世界經濟中發揮越來越重要的作用。
　　
　　我們的著名觀點是現有的國際機構，特別是七國集團，已經過時了，應該被徹底改革。5月七國集團財長發表聲明，呼籲產油國擴大生產，以平抑上漲的原油價格，是該觀點的進一步證據。對我們來說最有趣的是，這是七國集團連續第四次對其無法直接控製的事情發表聲明。之前三次七國集團會議令人注意的是，七國集團呼籲非該集團的亞洲國家采取更加富有彈性的貨幣製度。
　　
　　七國集團意在采取政策行動以使世界經濟發展更加持久，這樣做是對的。然而，七國集團不可能對這些問題產生任何直接影響。而且七國集團的成員國們也不清楚它們準備給目標國什麽激勵，以說服這些國家采取對全球有利的政策。所有這些公告都表明七國集團在當今世界的影響力日益降低。
　　
　　現在是領導世界經濟的國際組織進行機構改革的時候了。具體的，我們建議七國集團吸納中國擴展為八國集團，提升20國集團的地位，並建立新組織F8（Financial Eight），以取代七國集團財長和央行行長會議。
　　
　　
　　八國集團首腦會議：改變的時間
　　
　　下周八國集團的領導人將在佐治亞州舉行年度首腦會議，與1975年發起該會議的他們的前任相比，這些領導人麵對著迥然不同的世界。那時美國、日本和一些歐洲國家主導國際經濟，它們占據著世界GDP、金融和商業活動的相當大部分。這些國家控製著貿易談判、貨幣聯盟及其他大部分國際經濟問題----除了石油之外。石油推動了首腦會議的進程。1975年六個歐洲國家舉行會談，希望研究對策以克服1973年阿以戰爭之後阿拉伯國家石油禁運所造成的經濟衰退。具有諷刺意味的是，石油又將成為一個主要議題，因為召開會議的國家在隨後的時間裏為減少對石油的依賴做的太少。
　　
　　
　　上世紀70年代，中國剛剛開始參與世界貿易，激烈的市場化改革甚至還沒有開始。印度的技術繁榮是20年之後的事情。歐盟隻有9個成員國。蘇聯作為一個共產主義國家仍然存在，試圖破壞西方市場經濟體係。伊拉克是美國的盟友。主要的核問題是確保能互相破壞，而不是核擴散。
　　
　　
　　最初的首腦會議與之前舉行的任何會議都不相同。它不是由協議或正式外交會議確定舉辦的，如同世界貿易組織或世界銀行那樣。相反的，它被計劃成是一次性的事件----一個非正式聚會----是德國總理赫爾穆特·施密特和法國總統瓦拉利·吉斯卡·德斯坦（他們以前都是財政部長）的主意。吉斯卡邀請施密特以及美國、日本、英國和意大利的首腦舉行會談，試圖找到一些辦法來恢複世界經濟增長，並使國際貨幣體係有序。1971年固定匯率的布雷頓森林體係崩潰之後，國際貨幣體係陷入混亂狀態。
　　

　　
　　1976年，當時的美國總統傑拉爾德·福特召集各國領導人舉行首腦會議的時候，七國集團成立了。加拿大被邀請加入，以對原集團中歐洲國家過多的情況進行平衡。福特政府經濟顧問委員會主席（名為艾倫·格林斯潘）是這一倡議的主要推動者；他擔心，如果西方國家都過於激進的刺激經濟，那麽它們將過快的從衰退中恢複，從而觸發新一輪通貨膨脹。福特政府國家安全小組成員亨利·基辛格和布倫特·斯考克羅夫特也把該組織視為北約之外的一種把西方國家團結起來的方式，共同抵擋來自中東的石油壓力，並加強它們針對蘇聯的聯合。這種首腦會議還有一些優點，如包括了非北約成員國的日本，以及關注經濟問題，北約很少討論此類問題。
　　
　　

　　在那次特別會議之後，七國集團首腦會議（1998年俄羅斯加入擴展成為八國集團）已經成為國際外交日程中最重要的事件。該集團的財政部長和央行行長另外召開自己的會議，外交部長也是這樣。首腦會議關注包括艾滋病在內的各種問題，內容十分廣泛，為世界最貧窮國家提供幫助，並打擊恐怖主義。
　　
　　
　　原文：
　　
　　
　　The G7 Speaks, But Who Listens? (1)
　　
　　
　　Who should guide the international economy in this time of uncertain growth prospects, rising inflation and record high oil prices? Are existing international institutions up to the job? Or is it time to reform the global economic architecture and give greater voice to the emerging economies that will play an increasingly important role in the world economy in the years ahead? Our well-known view is that existing institutions, notably the G7, are outdated and should be overhauled. Further evidence of this came in the form of theG7Finance Ministers statement in May, in which they called on oil-producing countries to expand production to restrain the upward rise in crude oil prices. To us the most interesting aspect is that this is the fourth consecutive statement focusing on an issue over which the G7 has little to no direct control. The three previous G7 meetings were notable for the implied calls on non-G7 Asian nations to adopt more flexible currency regimes.
　　
　　
　　The G7 is right to point to policy action that will make for amore sustainable world economy. However, it is unlikely that the G7 can have any direct influence on these issues. Nor was it clear what incentives the G7 countries were ready to offer in order to persuade the target countries to adopt globally beneficial policies. All these communiqués highlight the diminished relevance of the G7 in the modern world.
　　
　　
　　The time has come for institutional reform of organizations that preside over the world economy. We specifically propose an extension of the G8 Heads of State to include China, an elevated role for the G20 and creation of an F8 (Financial Eight) to replace the G7 finance and central bankers meetings.
　　
　　
　　The G8 Summit: Time For a Change
　　
　　
　　As the Group of Eight leaders approach their annual summit next week in Georgia, they face a far different world from the one their predecessors confronted when they initiated these conclaves in 1975. Then the international economy was dominated by the US, Japan and a handful of European nations that together accounted for the vast portion of world GDP, finance and commerce. These countries called the shots on trade negotiations, currency realignments and most other international economic matters--except for oil. It was oil that catalysed the summit process, in 1975, when six western leaders met to forge a strategy to overcome the recession caused by the Arab embargo following the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Ironically, oil will again be a major topic because the assembled countries have done too little to reduce their dependence in the ensuing decades. In the mid-1970s, China barely participated in world trade; its dramatic market reforms had not even begun. India’s technology boom was two decades away. The European Union had only nine members. The USSR still existed as a communist state that sought to undermine the western market economic system. Iraq was an American ally. Mutual assured destruction was the primary nuclear issue, not proliferation.
　　
　　
　　This initial summit differed from anything that had preceded it. It was not established by treaty or by a formal diplomatic conference, as were the IMF or World Bank. Instead, it was planned as a one-time event--an informal get-together--and was the idea of German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and French President Valerie Giscard d’Estaing (both former finance ministers). Giscard invited Schmidt and their American, Japanese, British and Italian counterparts to seek ways to restore world economic growth and bring order to an international monetary system thrown into turmoil after the 1971 collapse of the Bretton Woods System of fixed exchange rates.
　　
　　
　　TheG7was born when then US President Gerald Ford convened a second summit in 1976. Canada was invited to balance the heavy weighting of European countries in the original group. The Chairman of Ford’s Council of Economic Advisors (a man named Alan Greenspan) was the prime mover behind the initiative; he feared that if Western nations collectively applied economic stimulus too aggressively, they would emerge from the recession so rapidly as to trigger a new round of inflation. Ford’s national security team of Henry Kissinger and Brent Scowcroft also saw this as another means, beyond NATO, of bonding the Western allies together to resist oil pressure from the Middle East and to strengthen their unity against the Soviet Union. The summit had the advantages of including non-NATO Japan and of focusing on economics, a subject NATO rarely broached.
　　
　　
　　Since that ad hoc beginning, these G7 summits (expanded to the G8 with the addition of Russia in 1998) have become a mainstay of the international diplomatic calendar. Finance ministers and central bank governors convene their own meetings, as do foreign ministers. Summits have addressed a widening range of issues, including AIDS, help for the poorest nations and