[source image]
Dow Jones NewsApr 3, 11:27 PM UTC
DJ JPMorgan Raises Recession Risk to 60% -- WSJ
By Heather Gillers
A global recession is more likely than not this year, thanks to Wednesday's tariff broadside from the U.S.
That's the opinion of JP Morgan analysts who raised their forecast to 60% Thursday. That's up from 40% before President Trump's Wednesday afternoon announcements sent markets tumbling.
The administration's plans will likely amount to a 20 percentage point increase in U.S. tariff rates, the firm said. The last increase that large, in 1968, was followed by recession, economists led by Bruce Kasman said.
Analysts said retaliatory tariffs by other countries, weakening business sentiment in the U.S. and supply chain disruptions will make things worse. Jeep maker Stellantis has already halted production at its auto assembly factories in Mexico and Canada.
A scenario where the U.S. enters a recession but the rest of the world is spared is also possible, the firm said, but less likely.
This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 03, 2025 19:27 ET (23:27 GMT)
Copyright © 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
