評論: 裏根前分析師預測:川普4大原因 壓倒性拋離賀錦麗

隻有登錄用戶才能發表評論,點擊此處登錄    返回新聞帖
罵人不好 發表評論於 2024-10-30 13:44:14
拜總已經點了另外一把野火了。有意地把火引到自己身上去。拜總在搞事情,暗助川普。為了兒子看來是拚了。

他當然不是就想幫川普,他是在喧囂民主黨對於他的不公。幫助川普隻是順帶的事,給民主黨添堵,惡心奧巴馬和佩洛西,讓哈裏斯同誌有苦說不出。

混了一輩子的老政客了,幹事情是不行的,搞這種政治小把戲是輕車熟路的。
樹沒皮怎辦 發表評論於 2024-10-30 13:30:38
Trump’s Puerto Rico fallout is ‘spreading like wildfire’ in Pennsylvania
Donald Trump has a serious Puerto Rico problem — in Pennsylvania.

Many Puerto Rican voters in the state are furious about racist and demeaning comments delivered at a Trump rally. Some say their dismay is giving Kamala Harris a new opening to win over the state’s Latino voters, particularlynearly half a million Pennsylvanians of Puerto Rican descent.

Evidence of the backlash was immediate on Monday: A nonpartisan Puerto Rican group drafted a letter urging its members to oppose Trump on election day. Other Puerto Rican voters were lighting up WhatsApp chats with reactions to the vulgar display and raising it in morning conversations at their bodegas. Some are planning to protest Trump’s rally Tuesday in Allentown, a majority-Latino city with one of the largest Puerto Rican populations in the state.

And the arena Trump is speaking at is located in the middle of the city’s Puerto Rican neighborhood.

“It’s spreading like wildfire through the community,” said Norberto Dominguez, a precinct captain with the local Democratic party in Allentown, who noted his own family is half Republican and half Democratic voters.

“This was just like a gift from the gods,” said Victor Martinez, an Allentown resident who owns the Spanish language radio station La Mega, noting some Puerto Rican voters in the area have been on the fence about voting at all.

“If we weren't engaged before, we're all paying attention now,” Martinez said. He added the morning radio show he hosts was chock-full of callers Monday sounding off on the Trump rally comments, including a Puerto Rican Trump supporter who is now telling people not to vote for the former president.

Roberto L. Lugo, President of the Pennsylvania Chapter of the National Puerto Rican Agenda, said the nonpartisan group will be releasing a letter, shared exclusively with POLITICO, condemning the comments and urging Pennsylvania Puerto Ricans not to vote for Trump. Lugo, who was born in Puerto Rico and now lives in Philadelphia, said Pennsylvania Puerto Ricans are “really disturbed” over the comments.

“I’m not a Republican, I’m not a Democrat, I'm independent,” Lugo said. “But at this point, it’s not about political, partisan issues. It is about the respect and honor our Puerto Ricans and Latinos deserved as citizens and legal residents of this country, that’s the issue.”

“We held Trump and his campaign responsible for this disgraceful act,” he added.
樹沒皮怎辦 發表評論於 2024-10-30 13:21:45
民調都不可靠,但卡爾森周一在紐約的麥迪遜廣場聚會就宣布,川普一定贏,如果川普輸了,一定是民主黨作弊。

這是很危險的, 為川普輸了選舉煽動暴力做準備。

樹沒皮怎辦 發表評論於 2024-10-30 13:16:38
最新的民調,哈裏斯領先。不過,這些民調,不論川普領先或賀錦麗領先,一天一個樣,都不可靠。因為所有的民調都有一個局限:無法預測最後有多少人出來投票。2020年,共有1億5千萬人出來投票。你現在找800個人,不超過3000個人,打個電話,發個短信,郵件問一下他們投票意向,你如何能準確預測2024最終會有多少人出來投票?沒錯,那些開卡車的不參加民調,另一方麵,那些年輕的大學生也不參加民調。2022年中期選舉,通貨膨脹最嚴重的時候,民調說會出現紅色浪潮,眾議員共和黨會多贏60多個席位,結果紅色浪潮沒有出現,隻多了5,6個席位,導致議長輕易被罷免。
沒錯, 川普在拉美,黑人男性的支持率上升。 另一方麵,賀錦麗在白人婦女,郊區選民的支持率也上升。 在溫和共和黨員的支持方麵也上升。 今天,前共和黨州長施瓦辛格,也宣布背書賀錦麗。統計顯示注冊為共和黨的選民,今年提前投票的增加了,但無法證明,他們的票都是投給川普的。
在我看來,決定今年大選的關鍵,在於共和黨裏麵,20% 支持黑利的,有多少會投給賀錦麗。

Harris leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters in the latest Economist/YouGov survey out Wednesday, with 2% unsure and roughly 3% backing other candidates (margin of error 3.6)—a slight narrowing from Harris’ 49%-46% edge last week.

Harris is up 51%-47%—with just 3% still undecided—in a very large likely voter poll by the Cooperative Election Study, a survey backed by several universities and conducted by YouGov, which polled around 50,000 people from Oct. 1 to 25.

Trump also trails Harris 44%-43% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday (margin of error 3 points), representing a narrowed lead for Harris since she entered the race in July, with the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll showing her ahead by two points.

Harris is up three points over Trump, 50%-47%, in Morning Consult’s weekly survey, also released Tuesday (margin of error 1 point), after she led by four points, 50%-46%, in the group’s previous two polls.

Harris leads Trump by four points, 51%-47%, in an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters released Sunday, up slightly from her 50%-48% edge in early October, while a CBS/YouGov survey out Sunday shows Harris up 50%-49%, a shift from the vice president’s 51%-48% mid-October lead (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5, and the CBS poll’s margin of error was 2.6).
罵人不好 發表評論於 2024-10-30 12:37:53
刑事起訴不可能自我豁免的,隻能上訴。

但是這些起訴基本上都是出於政治目的的,過了追溯期,又玩遊戲,想辦法政治追殺,而且罰款金額巨大,顯然是違憲的。

所以如果川普當選,上訴法庭大概率會駁回起訴,也就是說民主黨的政治追殺會以失敗告終。

美國是判例法,對於川普的政治追殺是沒有先例的,上訴法庭沒有判例可以遵循。川普案子被上訴法庭駁回以後,那就是判例了。
BDPLX 發表評論於 2024-10-30 11:44:24
lhy86 發表評論於 2024-10-30 10:32:47
看見樓下民主黨棍們急紅了眼的樣子,真讓人高興,哈哈哈……
-------------------------
lol lol
westandingup 發表評論於 2024-10-30 11:21:52
靠譜
Longlivetruth 發表評論於 2024-10-30 11:04:32
過來人分析的比較靠譜.
portfolio 發表評論於 2024-10-30 11:02:39
上次投了川普,這次不投他,但感覺他會贏。
假如川普再當上總統,那些刑事指控都能自我豁免嗎?假如隻能部分被自我豁免掉,那麽,下一個四年任期後,重新被起訴甚至坐牢?

一將功成萬骨枯 發表評論於 2024-10-30 10:52:00
四大原因全是主觀意淫,沒有任何數據支持
lhy86 發表評論於 2024-10-30 10:32:47
看見樓下民主黨棍們急紅了眼的樣子,真讓人高興,哈哈哈……
量子糾結 發表評論於 2024-10-30 10:32:00
2016,2020年,民主黨全國民調領先川普6-10%,搖擺州領先3-8%,賭盤賠率民主黨對共和黨是-200:200。現在民調顯示雙方不相上下,按理賠率該是100:100,而不是現在的-175:175。所以大家都認為這次大選結果會是一邊倒,而不是像民調顯示的處於膠著狀態。
罵人不好 發表評論於 2024-10-30 10:28:22
喜劇演員說波多黎各的事情估計是哈裏斯同誌的最後一根想抓住的救命稻草了。這件事顯然不足以扭轉她的頹勢,哈裏斯現在最大的願望應該是不要被民主黨當成丟掉白宮和兩院的背鍋俠,明年能平安提前退休。
量子糾結 發表評論於 2024-10-30 10:27:00
那些自己開不了車,必須兒女帶著去投票的老人,那些沒有手機過原始生活的Amish人,還有無數農村很少關心政治的農夫,都是民調調查不到的人。還有就是熱情,熱情高的一方投票可能性會比沒熱情的一方高,熱情低的一方跨過黨派鴻溝投另一方候選人的可能性高,就像裏根那時大量的裏根民主黨人。這次大選最後結果不會像民調顯示的這樣接近。
七點三十 發表評論於 2024-10-30 09:56:07
樓下的民主黨黨棍們急了!趕緊找反例。
NFC-RFID 發表評論於 2024-10-30 09:45:29
胡說八道,Trump怎麽能和裏根比?而且通貨膨脹遠沒有當年凶猛,現在已經被遏製
河中石 發表評論於 2024-10-30 09:39:00
賀小三上位難了
fancyorange 發表評論於 2024-10-30 09:37:00
他在做夢呢,嗬嗬
xyz18 發表評論於 2024-10-30 09:36:49
現在也不知發哦哪個民調是準的,各種預測滿天飛,但還是希望美國有一個在國際上比較強勢的總統出現,這樣全世界才能安靜下來,美國國內也不再出現非移天使到處流竄的現象
van1 發表評論於 2024-10-30 09:32:00
川普躺贏了
頁次:1/1 每頁50條記錄, 本頁顯示120, 共20  分頁:  [1]