The War of Drones the World Still Doesnt Know How to Fight. Except Ukraine.
By:Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Lozova The Russian air force has once again overwhelmed this city of the Kharkiv Oblast with 14 highly-explosive, long-range drones. Using them withan operational logic similar to that of cruise missiles, they once again targeted the train station (already heavily damaged) and local energy infrastructure, leaving the city in darkness and cold.
As the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyj,observed,Russia flies these drones at very low altitudes(50100 meters) to hide their radar signatures by using serpentine routes and terrain curvature.
Since 2024, the Russians have used these tactics to flood Ukrainian defenses, making the use of interceptor drones crucial; so much so thattheyneutralizedover 70% of Russian air threats in February alone.
Precisely because cities like Lozova have become a true laboratory for drone warfare dominated by Iranian-designed systems like the Shahed several of Ukraines partners havesoughtPresident Volodymyr Zelenskys insights on how the experience gained there can help prevent similar attacks elsewhere, especially those carried out by Iran. This is particularly true since as some journalistic reportsconfirm fragments marked with the Russian label Герань-2 (Geran-2) werefoundamong drone debris intercepted in Dubai: that designation is used by Moscow for its version of those Iranian Shaheds, against which accordingto CNN Pentagon sources have secretly admitted even the United States would struggle to defend itself.
So far, Patriot interceptors are available, butwasting millions of dollars on them to shoot down drones worth just a few thousand is simply not practical. As President Zelensky pointed out,Middle Eastern countries launched 800 PAC-3 missiles in three days, while Ukraine has never had so many in the entire war.
This approach is unsustainable even for the US.
Additionally, Russia often uses Geran drones not only to attack but also to map Ukrainian radar defenses before launching Iskander or Kh-101 missiles.
No Ukrainian partner is ready to respond to attacks like those that recently hit Lozova and Dubai, which are clearly not just bombings butpart of a broader operational strategy in Russian warfare.
There is therefore some credibility to the rumorspreadby the Financial Times thatthe US and at least one Persian Gulf country are negotiating to buy the valuable interceptor drones made in Ukraine.
For comparison: a Shahed/Geran dronecostsaround $30,000, while each PAC-3 missile for the Patriot systemcostsabout $5 million to the US andtwicethat for export. A Ukrainian-made interceptorcostsjust a few thousand euros.
After over four years of full-scale war, Ukraine has become the worlds leading laboratory for drone warfare.
Dedicated interceptor drones and distributed detection systems have been developed here, amd are now already perfectly integrated into traditional air defense.Countering one drone with another drone is much cheaper and more versatile than using traditional anti-aircraft systems. These are multi-rotor devices, usually quadcopters or hexacopters, capable of accelerating from 0 to over 150 km/h in less than 2 seconds, with a range of about 20 kilometers and at altitudes of up to 2,000 meters. Ukrainian defenders primarily use them in three ways: as kamikazes, by directly impacting and hitting Shahed/Geran from the front or side, flying at roughly 180 km/h; as loitering proximity explosive charges, remotely triggering directional detonations capable of overwhelming Russian drones with fragments; and as net or rotating cable vectors, ejected to block the targets propeller. The interception begins with localization, achieved through a combination of factors: radar, acoustic sensors placed at elevated positions such as buildings and pylons, and both human and electro-optical visual observers. Once the course and altitude are identified, the closest interceptor drones reach the threat, guided either manually via FPV or autonomously.
Interceptor drones representa revolution in air defensebecause they allow swarms of inexpensive launchers to be countered with even cheaper systems, breaking an economic asymmetry that favored the attacker.
In this regard, cities like Lozova serve not only as targets but also aslaboratories for 21st-century air warfare.
Its somewhat surprising (to a degree) how superficially the United States and Israel have launched a war that our colleagues at The Economist rightlydescribeas without a strategy
After abusing the word peace byclaimingto have ended eight wars noneof which actually existed and seeking a Nobel Prize that Europeans who he believes are hostile denied him,Donald Trump has actually triggered a real conflict that could spiral into chaos. He has neither theunderstandingnor thetoolsto resolve it long-term, especially when it comes to subtle threats like those Iran has in abundance.
So much so that in Ukraine, theres already a joke that in the end it will be Kyiv to defend Washington.
The ongoing blackouts severely damaged our houses heating system in Western Ukraine while we were in the Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldnt circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesnt work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Allas parents live there, but theres still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
Were renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. Well keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends ????????
無人機戰爭：世界仍不知如何應對，除了烏克蘭
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻譯：旺財球球
烏克蘭前線報道????????
洛佐瓦俄羅斯空軍再次用14枚高爆遠程無人機對哈爾科夫州的這座城市實施了壓倒性襲擊。它們以類似巡航導彈的作戰邏輯被使用，再次瞄準了已被嚴重破壞的火車站和當地能源基礎設施，使城市陷入黑暗與寒冷。
正如烏克蘭武裝部隊總司令奧列克桑德爾西爾斯基所指出，俄羅斯以極低高度（50100米）飛行這些無人機，通過曲折航線和地形起伏來隱藏雷達特征。
自2024年以來，俄方利用這些戰術壓垮烏克蘭防禦，使攔截型無人機的使用變得至關重要；僅在二月，它們就攔截了超過70%的俄方空中威脅。
（圖：Alla在一處殺傷區匍匐報道，頭頂天空有無人機滋擾版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
正因為像洛佐瓦這樣的城市已成為無人機戰爭的真實實驗室以伊朗設計的沙赫德係列為主烏克蘭若幹夥伴向總統弗拉基米爾澤連斯基征詢，想了解那裏的經驗能如何幫助防止在別處發生的類似襲擊，尤其是由伊朗發起的襲擊。尤其值得注意的是，正如若幹新聞報道證實的那樣，在迪拜被攔截的無人機殘骸中發現了標有俄方標簽Герань-2（Geran-2）的碎片：莫斯科用該標識指代其改裝版的伊朗沙赫德，而據CNN援引五角大樓消息源稱，即便是美國在防禦這些武器上也曾私下承認會很吃力。
目前，雖然可以用愛國者攔截導彈，但用價值數百萬美元的愛國者導彈去擊落造價僅數千美元的無人機並不現實。正如澤連斯基總統所指出，中東國家在三天內發射了800枚PAC-3彈，而烏克蘭在整個戰爭期間也從未擁有過如此多。
這種做法即便對美國來說也是難以為繼的。
此外，俄羅斯除了經常用格蘭/ Geran無人機實施攻擊，還在發射伊斯坎德爾（Iskander）或Kh-101導彈之前用其繪製烏克蘭雷達防禦圖譜。
沒有哪個烏克蘭的夥伴準備好應對最近襲擊洛佐瓦和迪拜那樣的攻擊這些顯然不僅是轟炸，而是俄羅斯戰法中更廣泛作戰策略的一部分。
因此，《金融時報》散布的謠聞有一定可信度，即美國與至少一個波斯灣國家正商談購買烏克蘭製造的寶貴攔截無人機。
比較一下：一架沙赫德/格蘭無人機造價約3萬美元，而美國每枚愛國者係統的PAC-3導彈造價約500萬美元，出口價格甚至高達兩倍。烏克蘭製造的攔截器成本僅為數千歐元。
（截圖來自《金融時報》網站）
經過四年多的全麵戰爭，烏克蘭已成為世界領先的無人機戰爭試驗場。
這裏已開發出專用攔截無人機與分布式探測係統，並已完美融入傳統防空體係。用一架無人機攔截另一架無人機，在成本和靈活性上都遠比使用傳統防空係統更具優勢。這些攔截器為多旋翼平台，通常為四旋翼或六旋翼，能在不到2秒內從靜止加速到150公裏/小時以上，射程約20公裏，最高作戰高度可達2000米。烏克蘭抵抗者們主要以三種方式使用它們：作為自殺式撞擊器，從正麵或側麵以約180公裏/小時撞擊沙赫德/格蘭；作為滯空近炸裝置，遙控引爆定向炸裂，用彈片壓製俄製無人機；以及作為網或旋轉纜索載體，發射後纏住目標螺旋槳使其失效。攔截始於定位，靠雷達、高處（如建築與電塔）布設的聲學傳感器、以及人工與光電目視觀測相結合。一旦判定航向與高度，最近的攔截機可由FPV人工遙控或自主引導趕赴威脅位置。
（圖：Alla在被俄製無人機襲擊的洛佐瓦火車站現場報道版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
攔截無人機代表了防空領域的一場革命，因為它們使得可以用更便宜的係統對抗成群的廉價發射器，打破了有利於攻擊方的經濟不對稱。在這方麵，像洛佐瓦這樣的城市不僅是目標，也是21世紀空戰的實驗室。
令人多少感到驚訝的是，美國和以色列在這場戰爭中所采取的行動是多麽魯莽正如我們《經濟學人》的同事們恰當地描述為沒有戰略的戰爭。
（圖片來源：《經濟學人》）
在濫用和平一詞、聲稱結束了八場戰爭（實際上這些戰爭根本就不存在）並尋求一個他認為因歐洲對他懷有敵意而拒絕頒發的諾貝爾獎之後，唐納德川普實際上引發了一場可能失控的真實衝突。他既沒有長期解決問題的理解，也缺乏相應工具，尤其在應對伊朗大量持有的那類微妙威脅時更是如此。
以至於在烏克蘭，已經有人開玩笑說最終可能是基輔在保衛華盛頓。
（圖：一個國家的領導人抵抗著一場他從未想要的戰爭；一個教派的頭目宣稱結束了八場不存在的戰爭，卻發動了一場沒有戰略、正走向失控的戰爭）
***
持續的停電嚴重損壞了我們在烏克蘭西部的家中的供暖係統，而我們當時就在頓巴斯。
沒有電，點著的爐火無法通過水泵循環熱水。結果，係統起火，整個房子麵臨著燒毀的風險。幸而未被燒毀，但整個係統需要更換，房子也需要修複。管道都是歪的，牆壁被煙霧熏黑，供暖係統無法正常工作，需要徹底更換。
我們正在盡最大努力，因為Alla的父母住在那裏，但這裏還有許多工作要做，周圍的人處境也好不到哪兒去。
我們正在重啟籌款活動，感謝每一位支持我們修複被俄羅斯摧毀一切的朋友。即使是小額捐款也有幫助。我們會及時更新進展。
感謝大家，朋友們。
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在過去的三年裏，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的各個前線進行報道
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