Europeanizing Anti-ballistic Defense
By:Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Ovruch Hours after his indictment of Europe at the Davos meeting, President Volodymyr Zelenskypresentedthe American promise of additional PAC-3 Patriot interceptors as a success:I spoke with President Trump and received I wont say how many PAC-3 missiles for Patriot.
First, it should be noted that it was Kyivs allies (mostly European) who listened to its needs by paying for those missiles, while Donald Trump merely gave his imprimatur, once again dictating (exorbitant) prices and (biblical) timeframes for those deliveries. Far from being a victory, that message instead confirmeda toxic relationship.
Ukrainian defenses against ballistic threats remain strictly dependent on Washingtons whims, as do European ones, even though the EU has the technologies and tools to do without them. As Ive alreadyexplained, using the practical example of the Ukrainian POPO (anti-aircraft missile),the SAMP/T and Patriot share the same conceptual architecture: multifunctional phased array radar, command and control chain, launchers, and hit-to-kill interception. After the intense and productive rewriting of the engagement software by Ukrainian engineers who adapted the parameters for target discrimination, trajectory prediction, and interception time window both Patriot and SAMP/T are capable of neutralizing even so-called hypersonic ballistic threats. Therefore,even without American missiles, the EU and Ukraine could theoretically manage anti-ballistic air defensewith European SAMP/T systems.
Since 2022, MBDA (with Eurosam) hasincreasedproduction of Aster 30 interceptors. This capacity has enabled it todelivermissile volumes approximately five times higher than those planned for 2025. However, to meet the demands of modern warfare in the face of a high-intensity conflict like the one currently underway and to create stockpiles for a potentially more serious conflict against the same enemy,a reconversion of European industry would be necessary, as is alreadyhappeningwith Renault and some German car manufacturers.
Production times have already been reduced and will be further reduced in 2026, but a sensible choice for Ukraine would be to push for joint ventures like the one already underway with Rheinmetall, making its production chain available with a view to full integration with the EU. The SAMP/T is a European pillar, but most of the hundreds of missiles produced each year nowgoto the United Kingdom, France, and Italy.
Kyivs accession to the EU would make it easier for Ukrainian industry to overcome production constraints related to licenses and permits.
Raising awareness of this issue among the Davos audience from a Ukrainian perspective would certainly have been a proactive approach, more compatible with the principles of that meeting. Sustaining American invective against the EU and limiting success to the latest dose of American missiles (sought and financed by the EU) benefits neither Kyiv nor Brussels.
A paradigm shift is needed.
The rest of Ukraines best anti-aircraft defense is already European.
This is by no means a small matter and should be emphasized. The system that works best against cruise missiles and drones is theIris-T, a European product. Its missiles are derived from AAMs and offer extremely high precision at a lower cost than the Asters. This is why Zelenskyagreedjust the day before yesterday to the delivery of 18 complete batteries, including launchers and interceptors.
TheNASAMscan also survive the American withdrawal because it integrates with European radars and has a modular architecture. Crotale and Camm-ER are other highly credible European solutions that free the SAMP/T from uses other than ballistic threats. Not to mention recent laser systems like the DragonFire, which are British.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense is already essentially European and functions without American missiles.
However,when it comes to ballistic threats, a different approach is needed that raises awareness of the importance of alternatives like the SAMP/T.
Withconcrete and constructive proposals, not generic invectives. Only by strengthening these options and avoiding creating further dependence on the United States can a solution be found. While the desire to smooth things over to some extent with the Americans so they can ensure a healthy dose of PAC-3 is understandable,it is imperative to push for options that already exist and must be implemented in the Ukrainian production chain as part of the European one.
Kyiv must not be the end customer but an important element of the industrial chain.
These are issues that should be addressed in the economic sphere, addressing audiences like Davos.
The conclusion is therefore operational, not just ideological: it makes sense to kiss the American slipper, but only by shifting the center of gravity toward the onlystrategic solution: Europeanizing anti-ballistic defense with SAMP/T and Aster, including Ukraine in the industrial chain as part of the solution, not as a passive recipient.
Some time ago, I noted that one of Zelenskys greatest achievements was treating Ukraines European integration as a strategic asset in its own right. It was a decisive choice for his countrys survival and future. Now is the time for Brussels to follow suit, viewing Kyivs accelerated entry into the EU as an opportunity to quickly reduce its dependence on Washington.
The continuous blackouts severely damaged the heating system of our house in Western Ukraine while we were here in Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldnt circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesnt work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Allas parents live there, but theres still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
Were renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins to help us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. Well keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, friends ????????
歐洲化反彈道防禦
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻譯：旺財球球
烏克蘭前線報道????????
奧夫魯奇在達沃斯會議上對歐洲提出指責數小時後，澤連斯基總統將美國承諾提供額外PAC-3愛國者攔截導彈視為一項勝利：我與特朗普總統通話並收到了我不說具體數量愛國者的PAC-3導彈。
首先應指出的是，正是基輔的盟友（主要是歐洲國家）傾聽了其需求為這些導彈買了單，而唐納德川普隻不過蓋章表示了許可，同時再次強加（高得離譜的）價格和（極其漫長的）交付時間表。此舉非但不能算作勝利，反而證實了一種有毒的依賴關係。
（圖：SAMP/T圖片來源：Defense Express）
烏克蘭對彈道威脅的防禦依然嚴格依賴華盛頓的突發善心惠，歐洲亦然，盡管歐盟擁有擺脫這種依賴的技術和工具。正如我通過烏克蘭POPO（防空導彈）的實際案例所做的解釋，SAMP/T與愛國者在概念架構上是相同的：多功能相控陣雷達、指揮控製鏈、發射器和撞擊殺傷攔截方式。經過烏克蘭工程師對攔截軟件的密集且富有成效的重寫他們調整了目標判別、軌跡預測和攔截時間窗等參數愛國者和SAMP/T均能對所謂高超音速彈道威脅實施有效攔截。因此，即便沒有美國導彈，歐盟與烏克蘭理論上也能使用歐洲的SAMP/T係統承擔反彈道防空任務。
自2022年以來，MBDA（與Eurosam合作）已提高了Aster 30攔截彈的產量。這一產能使其交付量約為原計劃2025年水平的五倍。然而，為了應對當前這種的高強度衝突的現代戰爭的需求，，並為可能與同一敵人的更嚴重的衝突建立庫存，必須對歐洲工業進行改造，正如雷諾與部分德國汽車製造商已在做的那樣。
生產時間已經被縮短，並將在2026年進一步減少，但對烏克蘭而言，明智的選擇是推動諸如正在與萊茵金屬進行的合資項目，讓其生產鏈參與進來，以期與歐盟實現完全整合。SAMP/T是歐洲的一根支柱，但目前每年生產的數百枚導彈大多流向英國、法國和意大利。
基輔加入歐盟將有助於烏克蘭工業更易解決與許可與審批相關的生產限製。
從烏克蘭角度在達沃斯向與會者提高對此問題的認識，肯定是一種更積極的做法，與該會議的宗旨更為契合。維持針對歐盟的美式指責，並將成果局限於最新一批（由歐盟尋找並資助的）美國導彈，對基輔與布魯塞爾均無益。
需要範式轉變。
（圖：Iris-T圖片來源：Unian）
烏克蘭其餘的最佳防空體係已經是歐洲的。
這絕非小事，值得強調。對巡航導彈和無人機最有效的係統是Iris-T，這是一款歐洲產品。其導彈源自空對空導彈（AAM），在成本低於Aster的同時提供極高精度。這也是澤連斯基前天同意交付18套完整電池（含發射器與攔截彈）的原因。
（圖：NASAM圖片來源：Kongsberg）
NASAM在美國撤離的情況下也能繼續運作，因為它可與歐洲雷達整合並具有模塊化架構。Crotale與CAMM-ER是其他同樣可靠的歐洲解決方案，可將SAMP/T從非彈道威脅任務中解放出來。更不用說近期的像英國激光係統DragonFire之類的。
（圖：Crotale圖片來源：Defense Express）
烏克蘭的防空體係本質上已是歐洲化的，並能在沒有美國導彈的情況下運作。
然而，對於彈道威脅，需要采取不同的方法，要提升對諸如SAMP/T等替代方案重要性的認識。
需提出具體且建設性的建議，而非籠統的指責。隻有強化這些選項並避免進一步依賴美國，才能找到解決之道。盡管為了爭取足夠的PAC-3與美國保持一定的緩和可以理解，但更有必要推動那些已存在且必須把烏克蘭生產鏈被納入歐洲整體一部分的方案。
基輔不應隻是最終客戶，而應成為工業鏈中的重要環節。
這些問題應在經濟層麵上解決，麵向像達沃斯這樣受眾。
（圖：CAMM-ER圖片來源：MBDA）
結論因此是務實的，而不僅僅是意識形態的：親美討好可以有，但必須把重心轉向唯一的戰略解決方案：用SAMP/T與Aster實現反彈道防禦的歐洲化，將烏克蘭納入工業鏈，作為解決方案的一部分，而非被動的接收方。
前些時候，我曾指出澤連斯基的一項重大成就是將烏克蘭的歐洲一體化視為一項獨立的戰略資產。這對其國家的生存與未來是一個決定性的選擇。如今正是布魯塞爾追隨其步伐的時候，應把基輔加速加入歐盟視為快速減少對華盛頓依賴的機會。
（圖：本文作者在烏克蘭奧夫魯奇為此文通訊拍攝的照片版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
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持續的停電嚴重損壞了我們在烏克蘭西部的家中的供暖係統，而我們當時就在頓巴斯。
沒有電，點著的爐火無法通過水泵循環熱水。結果，係統起火，整個房子麵臨著燒毀的風險。幸而未被燒毀，但整個係統需要更換，房子也需要修複。管道都是歪的，牆壁被煙霧熏黑，供暖係統無法正常工作，需要徹底更換。
我們正在盡最大努力，因為Alla的父母住在那裏，但這裏還有許多工作要做，周圍的人處境也好不到哪兒去。
我們正在重啟籌款活動，感謝每一位支持我們修複被俄羅斯摧毀一切的朋友。即使是小額捐款也有幫助。我們會及時更新進展。
感謝大家，朋友們。
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在過去的三年裏，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的各個前線進行報道
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