Encircled Reality
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Kyiv In the past few hours, top Russian and Ukrainian officials have issued diametrically opposed statements regarding the situation at the front.
In a briefstatementreiterated by Russian television and Kremlin-aligned media (including foreign outlets, primarily in Italy)Vladimir Putin called for the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, claiming they are encircled. HeurgedUkrainian and foreign media representatives whom his soldiers continue to barbarously massacre totake advantage of a temporary lull in the bombardment to enter both sectors and see with their own eyes what is happening.
Callingthese claims absurd, the spokesperson for the СХ?Д (East) military group confirmed that several Russian attack groups had managed to infiltrate the southern sector of Pokrovsk in the manner I described yesterday on these pages, reiterating thatthere is no enemy in Myrnohrad.This essentially contradicts the Russian dictators claims because, given the current situation on the ground,the idea of trapping the Ukrainian resistance in the Pokrovsk pocket without capturing Myrnohrad is simply absurd. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces has, however,revealedplans by whichthe Russian generals aim to do something similar pushing far enough north of those Ukrainian cities with a force of 27,000 soldiers, around 100 tanks, at least 260 other armored vehicles, and up to 160 guns and mortars to encircle both.
All reliable sources and those Im in contact with confirm thatthe Russians have managed to infiltrate several dozen saboteurs southwest of Pokrovskand thatfighting is raging among the ruins of that sector with such intensity that even the central portions of the city are crumbling. In about thirty hours, Ukrainian soldiers neutralized roughly a hundred occupants by blasting them with drones, including in the basements of buildings. Other types of drones are being used to supply the Ukrainian resistance, completely bypassing those roads that the Russians have now reduced to grey zones.
The vague idea of ??encirclement that Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov has instead decided to give for sure to Putin consists in the fact that the roads used to transport Ukrainian men and vehicles to Pokrovsk would be at risk of being cut off if his soldiers continued to press and the Ukrainians did not receive further support for their resistance.
Russian officials themselves deny that such a scenario is imminent. The rashist channel За ВДВ explained, through anonymous testimonies from some officers, thatwhat Gerasimov told Putin is falseand a comparison of the maps they drew themselves with those shown by the Russian Chief of Staff to the dictator revealed significant discrepancies.
Risking significant consequences for such assessments, analysts on that same channel also reminded their Russian readers thatbetween Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, there are 31 Ukrainian battalions, and 18 in Kupiansk alone. That means there are roughly 10,000 men in that sector alone. To believe a scenario similar to the one Putin envisioned, the Russians would already have to have surrounded ten thousand Ukrainians, but only on that side, because on the Pokrovsk side, there are at least twice that number.
As Russian officials themselves claim, this is patently false.
As was the case in Kursk, reality still lags behind words, butif the West doesnt decide to provide adequate support to the Ukrainian resistance soon, things could become very bad.
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在過去的三年裏，作為自由撰稿人，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的所有前線進行報道，自從大規模
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包圍下的真想
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
來自烏克蘭的現場報道
基輔在過去的幾個小時裏，俄羅斯和烏克蘭高級官員就前線局勢發表了截然相反的聲明。
在俄羅斯電視台和克裏姆林宮滲透的媒體（包括主要在意大利的外國媒體）發布的一份簡短地聲明中，弗拉基米爾普京再次呼籲在波克羅夫斯克和庫皮揚斯克的烏克蘭士兵投降，聲稱他們已被包圍。他還敦促烏克蘭和外國媒體代表他的士兵一直野蠻地屠殺他們利用暫時的轟炸間隙進入這兩個地區，親眼看看發生了什麽。
СХ?Д（東方）軍事組織發言人稱這些說法是荒謬的，他還確認幾個俄羅斯突擊隊已經設法以我昨天在本刊上描述的方式滲透到波克羅夫斯克的南部地區，並重申米爾諾格勒沒有敵人。這實際上反駁了這位俄羅斯獨裁者的說法，因為鑒於地麵的實際情況，在不拿下米爾諾格勒的情況下，就將烏克蘭抵抗者圍困在波克羅夫斯克口袋裏的想法簡直是荒謬的。然而，烏克蘭空降部隊第7快速反應軍已經披露了俄羅斯將軍計劃采取的類似行動派遣2.7萬名士兵、約100輛坦克、至少260輛其他裝甲車以及多達160門火炮和迫擊炮，向那些烏克蘭城市以北推進，以包圍這兩個城市。
（圖：烏克蘭第7空降旅披露了俄軍計劃）
所有可靠的消息來源以及與我聯係的人都證實，俄羅斯人已經設法在波克羅夫斯克西南部滲透了幾十名破壞分子，戰鬥正在該地區的廢墟中激烈進行，甚至城市的中心部分也在淪陷。在大約30個小時內，烏克蘭士兵通過無人機炸毀了大約100名入侵者，包括建築物地下室裏的。其他類型的無人機被用來為烏克蘭抵抗力量提供補給，完全繞過了那些已經被俄羅斯人變成灰色地帶的道路。
（圖：Alla在烏克蘭波姆羅夫斯基區報道????????版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
俄羅斯總參謀長瓦列裏格拉西莫夫決定向普京報告含糊的包圍戰況，是源於他相信，如果他的士兵繼續施壓並且烏軍反抗得不到進一步的支援，那麽用於向波克羅夫斯克運送烏克蘭士兵和車輛的道路將麵臨被切斷的風險。
（圖：我在這張地圖上用紅色描出了俄軍試圖切斷的波克羅夫斯克和米爾諾格勒的道路地圖來源：OpenStreetMap）
然而，俄羅斯官員自己否認這種情況迫在眉睫。ЗаВДВ頻道通過一些官員的匿名證詞解釋說，格拉西莫夫告訴普京的是錯誤的，將他們自己繪製的地圖與俄羅斯總參謀長向獨裁者展示的地圖的比較，揭示了重大的差異。
（圖：ЗаВДВ展示的地圖）
冒著對此類評估承擔重大後果的風險，該頻道上的分析師還提醒他們的俄羅斯讀者，波克羅夫斯克和米爾諾格勒之間有31個烏克蘭營，庫皮揚斯克有18個。這意味著僅在該地區就有大約1萬烏軍。要相信類似於普京設想的情況，俄軍必須已經包圍了大約一萬名烏軍，而且僅僅是在那一側，因為在波克羅夫斯克一側，烏軍至少是這個數字的兩倍。
正如俄羅斯官員自己所聲稱的那樣，這是公然的謊言。
（圖：ЗаВДВ分析師的評估）
正如發生在庫爾斯克的情況一樣，現實仍然落後於言語，但如果西方不盡快決定為烏克蘭抵抗力量提供充分的支持，情況可能會變得非常糟糕。
（圖：我在意大利報紙La Ragione上的專欄版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
