Ukraine Targets the Core of Russias Terror Regime
By: Giorgio Provinciali
原文鏈接：
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Kyiv As part of Operation Deep Strike,Ukrainian drones hit the Russian Bashnafta-UNPZ refinery in Ufa, located 1,400 kilometers from Ukrainein the Republic of Bashkortostan. This is the third such deep strike carried out recently, and its complete success highlights two key points:with its self-produced weapons, Ukraine can reach any target in enemy territory;attacking the Russian supply chain in this way results in faster and more precise effects than years of broad sanctions.
Drones from the Alpha Special Operations Center of the Ukrainian Special Services have once again targeted and precisely struck the crude oil refining tower, the core of the ELOU-AVT-6 plant, just as they did a few days earlier in theattack on the Afipsky refinery in the Krasnodar Territory of Russiaand again when theyhalted the operation of tower number 1 at the Tingovatovo oil pumping station in Chuvashia, which is another 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine.
This hadimmediate repercussions on oil production capacityand, consequently, on Russias wartime economy. By hitting 19 out of 38 refineries,the Ukrainians not only took half of those facilities offline but also reduced Russian refining capacity by more than 20%. Back in September, when the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimatedRussian refined oil exports to be at their lowest level in the last decade(excluding April 2020), Moscow had imposed a ban on gasoline exports and limits on diesel retailers until the end of 2025. To cover the shortfall caused by the Ukrainian attacks,the Russian Federation is now forced to increase imports from countries like Belarusaround 40,000 tons in September, according to converging estimates byReutersand the newspaper The Kyiv Independent.
The damage is both economic and symbolic. In many Russian regions, the price of red gasoline has now reached 100 rubles a liter, exceeding the capacity of many outdated electronic charging stations: a paradox that highlights the crisis of a wartime economy forced to buy fuel even while sitting on vast oil reserves.
The IEA itselfpredictsthat the cumulative effects of the Ukrainian strikes will continue to depress Russian revenues at least until 2026.While Russian refined petroleum product exports have fallen to a record low, crude oil exports have risen to 5.1 million barrels per day, the highest level since May 2023.
To put a finger on the wound, the Ukrainian strikes have caused disruptions in eight weeks that are equivalent to those resulting from the modest but persistent effects of 12 years of sanctions.A merciless comparison, and the reason is well known: Europe has continued to buy.
The sanctions have reduced growth and fiscal margins, resulting in a decrease of 11.5 points in Russian GDP annually. The price cap slightly lowered those revenues, but they still remained quite substantial throughout 2024 and the first half of 2025.In short, Europes permeability kept energy revenues flowing heavily to the Russian terrorist regime, which continues to be supported by European countries through record purchases of gas and LNG.
For this reason, given that European imports of Russian fossil fuels totaled 21.9 billion and Brussels provided 18.7 billion in net financial aid to Ukraine, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda stated that the European Union is financially on Russias side.
As IEA analysts have highlighted,the Ukrainian strikes caused immediate and widespread effects, slowing Moscows air force operations and ground transportation of troops and war supplies.Until Europe cuts off the gas supplies through which Russian state terrorism flows, the only effective tool to target Putins regime and alter the situation on the battlefield will be Ukrainian strength and resilience.
烏克蘭瞄準俄羅斯恐怖政權的核心
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
原文鏈接：https://medium.com/@giorgioprovinciali/ukraine-targets-the-core-of-russias-terror-regime-59409cc21f8b?sk=b4ea115f900d74127ac5a3faf329d30a
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基輔作為深度打擊行動的一部分，烏克蘭無人機襲擊了位於巴什科爾托斯坦共和國烏法市的俄羅斯巴什石油-UNPZ煉油廠，該地距離烏克蘭1400公裏。這是近期進行的第三次此類深度打擊，其完全成功實施凸顯了兩個關鍵點：烏克蘭憑借其自主生產的武器，可以打擊敵方領土上的任何目標；以這種方式攻擊俄羅斯供應鏈的效果比多年來的廣泛製裁更快、更精確。
烏克蘭特勤局阿爾法特種作戰中心的無人機再次瞄準並精確打擊了原油煉油塔，即ELOU-AVT-6裝置的核心，正如幾天前他們襲擊俄羅斯克拉斯諾達爾邊疆區的阿菲普斯基煉油廠，以及更早之前他們打擊造成位於楚瓦什共和國的廷戈瓦托沃輸油站1號塔停止運行一樣，而該輸油站距離烏克蘭也有1000公裏之遙。
（圖：照片來源：BBC）
這些襲擊對俄羅斯石油生產能力產生即時影響，從而對其的戰時經濟產生了直接影響。通過打擊38家煉油廠中的19家，烏克蘭不僅使一半的設施停止運行，還將俄羅斯的煉油能力降低了20%以上。早在9月份，當國際能源署（IEA）估計俄羅斯的精煉石油出口量處於過去十年來的最低水平（不包括2020年4月）時，莫斯科就已實施汽油出口禁令，並限製柴油零售商直到2025年底。根據路透社和《基輔獨立報》的一致估計，為了彌補烏克蘭襲擊造成的缺口，俄羅斯聯邦現在被迫增加從白俄羅斯等國的進口，9月份的進口量約為4萬噸。
損害既是經濟的，也是象征性的。在俄羅斯許多地區，紅色汽油的價格現在已經達到了每升100盧布，超過了許多過時的電子充電站的容量：這種悖論凸顯了戰時經濟的危機，即使坐擁巨大的石油儲備，也不得不購買燃料。
（圖：圖片來源：Meduza）
國際能源署本身預測，烏克蘭襲擊的累積效應將至少持續到2026年，其抑製俄羅斯的收入。雖然俄羅斯的精煉石油產品出口已降至曆史最低水平，但原油出口已升至每天510萬桶，為2023年5月以來的最高水平。
一針見血的是，烏克蘭的打擊在八周內造成的破壞，相當於12年來溫和但持續的製裁所造成的影響。這是一個無情的比較，原因眾所周知：歐洲一直在購買。
製裁降低了財政增長和盈餘率，導致俄羅斯GDP每年下降1-1.5個百分點。價格上限略微降低了這些收入，但在整個2024年和2025年上半年，這些收入仍然相當可觀。簡而言之，歐洲的滲透性使能源收入大量流入俄羅斯恐怖主義政權，歐洲國家通過創紀錄地天然氣和液化天然氣購買繼續支持該政權。
（圖片來源：歐盟委員會能源總司，SWD(2025) 830，基於LSEG和ENTSOG）
因此，鑒於歐洲從俄羅斯進口的化石燃料總額為219億歐元，而布魯塞爾向烏克蘭提供了187億歐元的淨財政援助，立陶宛總統吉塔納斯瑙塞達表示，歐盟在財政上站在俄羅斯一邊。
正如國際能源署的分析師所強調的那樣，烏克蘭的襲擊產生了直接而廣泛的影響，減緩了莫斯科空軍的行動以及部隊和戰爭物資的地麵運輸。在歐洲切斷俄羅斯國家恐怖主義賴以生存的天然氣供應之前，打擊普京政權並改變戰場局勢的唯一有效工具將是烏克蘭的力量和韌性。
（圖：看看這位烏克蘭作家，Olesia F.！我今天在烏克蘭基輔見到了她版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
