100% 準確， 但你不要這麽做， 談QQQ的20年曆史。

請看這組數字，這是過去18年納斯達克100指數（QQQ）每六個月的收益率變動。整體平均收益率為6.67%，相當於年化收益率13.34%。這通常被稱為行業（大盤）平均年回報率。

9.381%, 23.143%, 2.398%, 2.237%, 14.532%, -0.254%, -0.284%, 10.956%, 11.362%, 8.648%, 5.333%, 10.72%, 4.678%, -1.401%, -2.796%, 9.841%, 4.489%, 14.269%, 7.533%, 14.187%, 5.387%, -13%, 18.482%, 2.813%, 14.97%, 19.217%, 17.84%, 7.144%, 9.885%, -7.973%, -9.447%, -4.844%, 11.386%, 12.294%, 19.877%, 16.619%, 5.132%, 6.32%

那麽，如果每六個月進行一次買入和賣出操作呢？您的整體回報率仍然是13.34%，但會比僅僅持有QQQ不動更差。這是因為您需要支付交易費用，並且耗費時間。

如果您觀察正收益和負收益的次數，會發現您有73.7%的時間是正確的。那麽，如果在每六個月QQQ出現負收益時進行交易，並且隻持有六個月呢？您的準確率將達到100%。您的回報率將是14.76%，相當於年化29.5%，遠高於行業標準。您的資金會有六個月的閑置期，但可以用於其他股票。

對一個機構來說，跑贏大盤就很了不起了，29.5% 是大盤的2倍。順便說一下，追求跑贏大盤的準確說法是, 阿爾法trading.

所以，簡單來說，這是否意味著可以打敗巴菲特，他的年化平均回報率低於30%？是的，理論上很簡單，但實際上您這樣做並不是好的策略。將來有空我再能討論一下原因和解釋一下為什麽。祝您交易順利！歡迎分享任何想法。

The following is for who people do not speak Chinese:

Please look at this set of numbers, which represents the six-month returns of the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) over the past 18 years. The overall average return is 6.67%, which translates to an annualized return of 13.34%. This is often referred to as the industry (market) average annual return.

9.381%, 23.143%, 2.398%, 2.237%, 14.532%, -0.254%, -0.284%, 10.956%, 11.362%, 8.648%, 5.333%, 10.72%, 4.678%, -1.401%, -2.796%, 9.841%, 4.489%, 14.269%, 7.533%, 14.187%, 5.387%, -13%, 18.482%, 2.813%, 14.97%, 19.217%, 17.84%, 7.144%, 9.885%, -7.973%, -9.447%, -4.844%, 11.386%, 12.294%, 19.877%, 16.619%, 5.132%, 6.32%

Now, what if you buy and sell every six months? Your overall return would still be 13.34%, but it would be worse than simply holding QQQ without any transactions. This is because you have to pay transaction fees and it takes time.

If you look at the number of positive and negative returns, you'll find that you are right 73.7% of the time. So, what if you trade only when the six-month QQQ return is negative and hold for only six months? Your accuracy would reach 100%. Your return would be 14.76%, equivalent to an annualized 29.5%, which is much better than the industry standard. Your funds would be idle for six months, but could be used for other tickers.

For an institution, outperforming the market is already remarkable, and 29.5% is double the market return. By the way, the accurate term for pursuing returns that outperform the market is "alpha trading."

So, simply put, does this mean you can beat Buffett, whose average annual return is less than 30%? Yes, it's theoretically simple, but in practice, doing this is not a good strategy. I can discuss the reasons and explain why when I have time in the future. Good luck with your trading! Any ideas are welcome to share.