市場正在錯誤地解讀中國的意圖

“China has plenty of means for countermeasures, but under the current situation, the question that should be discussed right now is about removing the U.S.′ new tariffs on $550 billion in Chinese goods to prevent escalation of the trade war,” Gao Feng, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce, said Thursday.

Source：https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/29/trump-says-trade-talks-resume-thursday-at-a-different-level.html

中國清晰地地表明了隻有美國解除對中國新加征的關稅，才能避免中國的反擊。美國的主流媒體今天的宣傳卻是中國暫時不會對美國反擊，而絲毫不提中國不反擊的前提條件。

When asked about its ongoing trade war with the U.S., China’s commerce ministry said Thursday that it was opposed to escalating trade tensions, hinting Chinese authorities will not retaliate against the latest round of U.S. tariffs.

Source：https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/29/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-amid-recession-fears.html

因此，如果在明天收盤前沒有美國推遲加稅的消息，可以大膽做空美股。建議做空幾周後到期的期權，給中國的反擊留一點時間，也給自己一點騰挪的餘地。順便說一句，市場對FED七月降息的預期就是一個典型的錯誤解讀。如果你完整地聽過POWELL在國會的證詞，不難得出這個結論。所以，對於重要的新聞，一定要考證出處，看過原文，再做出自己的判斷，不要輕信市場的解讀。