沒人能知道股市什麽時候漲或跌，你也不能！

We have always heard the people talking about the stock market.  Some will say when the market will crash, or when the market will reach a level, or when you should buy this, or when you should sell that, etc.  But in reality, no one knows when the market will go up or come down.  If someone is telling you that he/she knows, they are lying. 

Investment is a long-term process.  You should be consistent and steady.  The following two examples demonstrate why you should never time the market.  We will use Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF symbol VTI prices.

1^st example shows that the investor does not time the market whether the stock market is up or down.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF (VTI) without buying / selling
Date	No. of Shares	VTI Price	Total	Notes
10/9/2007	12,862	77.75	1,000,020	The portfolio reached $1M
1/17/2018	12,862	141.35	1,818,043

2^nd example shows that the investor going in to and out of the stock market twice in the past 10 years.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF (VTI) with buying / selling
Date	No. of Shares	VTI Price	Total	Notes
10/9/2007	12,862	77.75	1,000,020	The portfolio reached $1M
9/15/2008	12,862	33.70	433,449	Sold when Lehman Brother filing for bankruptcy
3/9/2011	6,342	68.35	433,449	Going into the market again
11/8/2016	6,342	109.62	695,210	Sold when Trump was elected
5/8/2017	5,645	123.14	695,210	Bought when the market kept going up
1/17/2018	5,645	141.35	798,018

You can see the results which is very significant, the difference is about over $1M.  Of course, I might use an extreme example, but there are a lot of people who time the market without knowing the consequence.

[hhtt]

回複 'hz82000' 的評論 : 謝謝杭州姐姐來訪!

[hz82000]

True