iwm， sml 是判斷spx走勢的先行指標？ ZT

這是昨天看到的TA文章。大意是到昨天收盤，iwm（rut2000），sml（sp600）還在漲。iwm接近新高，sml已經走出新高，spx的後續走勢會跟隨這兩股的走勢繼續上漲。

為了驗證這篇文章內關點的可靠性，我對比了iwm，sml和spx一年內的走勢圖，發現，對於每個調整周期，都是iwm，sml比spx提前幾天開始調整（見下圖），規律非常清晰，原文作者的關點是經得起股市實踐檢驗的。

由此，我們可以把iwm和sml作為判斷大盤是否麵臨調整的先行指標。今天，iwm，sml還在繼續上漲，spx大跌的可能性很·小。多頭可以放心的繼續持股，直到那一天iwm，sml出現回調跡象，再考慮減倉也不晚。當然，突發利空事件出現時，這個規則不再適用。

個人觀點，僅供參考。

 

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5月10收盤後發表

S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX BREAKS OUT TO A NEW HIGH ... Yesterday's message showed the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) nearing the top of a bullish "ascending triangle". Chart 5 shows the SML hitting a new record high today. That's a very bullish breakout. Chart 6 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) rising above its upper trendline drawn over its March/April highs (see circle). A close above that trendline would signal that the RUT has resolved its three-month triangle on the upside. It's normal for the SML to lead the RUT higher during an uptrend and reach a new high first. That's because the SML is made up of a smaller number of more highly rated small cap stocks. And as usually happens, upside breakouts by small caps is pulling large cap stocks up with them. And they're achieving bullish breakouts of their own.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 5

(click to view a live version of this chart)

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