spx 的三角形整理的最後結局？ ZT

下麵是我看到一篇關於spx的TA文章。我個人看後感到受到啟發，分享在此次，供股友參考。

周三收盤，spx已經越過了50天均線，spx自一月末大調整以來，已經四次越過了50天均線，前三次被證實是假突破。這最後一次命運如何，還有待觀察。

 

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5月6日收盤後的分析  

TRIANGLES HAVE FIVE WAVES ... My Thursday message included a technical footnote which stated that triangles usually have five waves, which include three pullbacks. I further suggested that the last week's pullback may have been the third one. The two converging trendlines in Chart 2 are applied to the S&P 500. The five numbers overlaid on the chart show my interpretation of the five-wave triangular consolidation pattern (three pullbacks with two intervening bounces). The first two bottoms (waves 1 and 3) are pretty clear. Both of those two earlier pullbacks also represented successful tests of the 200-day average (red arrows). Here's where it gets interesting. It looks to me like the past week's pullback may represent the third one (wave 5?). Prices didn't quite reach the lower trendline, but did bounce off their 200-day average (for the third time). That's important because in a normal triangle, the third pullback should be the final one. It's interesting to note that the SPX is also trending between two converging moving averages -- a rising 200-day average (red arrows) and a falling 50-day line (blue arrow). The only way we'll know for sure if this past week's pullback was the final one in the three month consolidation is for the SPX to clear its 50-day average and its mid-April high. And, of course, the falling trendline drawn over its February/March highs. That's necessary to signal that the triangular consolidation pattern has been completed. Until that happens, the outcome remains in question. Which is why I placed a question mark (?) after Wave 5.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 2