金融評論: 收益率曲線的預測力

知道什麽叫Yield Flattening, Dead Flat？

來源: IAM3Down4Up 於 2018-04-01 09:16:15

 

 

天朝玉：

Flat yield curve 不可怕，an inverted yield curve has more predicting power of an economic recession.

A flatter yield curve could mean investors are worried about the macroeconomic outlook. It could also be due to other reasons, long-term growth prospects now lower for the US than before because of the aging of the population, and interest rates are already historically low, yield curves will necessarily be flatter than in the past.

如果是inverted yield curve, 倒轉收益率，那就要注意了，usually the economy falls into a recession within 7 to 24 months.

現在隻是剛剛變平些 ～

 

 

大千股壇 04/01/2018

 

 

 

 

下圖右邊是今天（四月三十）的國庫卷收益率曲線，總體還是上升趨勢，雖然末端變平了些。