Sales of the kinase drugs

Sales of Approved Kinase Drugs

#	Drug	Company	Approval Date	$ millions (2005)	$ millions (2006)	‘05 – ‘06 growth
1	Gleevec*	Novartis	2001	$2,200	$2,600	18%
2	Avastin	Genentech	2004	$1,133	$1,746	54%
3	Herceptin	Genentech	1998	$764	$1,234	62%
4	Erbitux	ImClone/BMS	2004	$698	$1,100	58%
5	Tarceva*	OSI/DNA	2004	$311	$650	109%
6	Lucentis	Genentech	2006	-	$380
7	Iressa*	AstraZ	2003	$273	$237	- 13%
8	Sutent*	Pfizer	2006	-	$219
9	Nexavar*	Onyx/Bayer	2006	-	$165
10	Macugen	OSI/DNA	2004	$180	$103	- 43%
11	Vectibix	Amgen	2006	-	$39
12	Sprycel*	BMS	2006	-	$25
	Total			$5,559	$8,498	53%
New Kinase Drug Introductions in 2007
	Tykerb*	GSK	2007	Arxxant*	Lilly	2007
	Torisel*	Wyeth	2007	Tasignia*	Novartis	2007

* Small molecule drug

With the release of OSI's 4Q and year-end financial statements, the sales results for all 12 kinase-targeting drugs are finally available for the year 2006.

And what a year it was.

Kinase-modulating therapies (KDs, or kinase drugs) generated $8.5B in revenue in 2006, with 53% growth over 2005. Both figures are especially impressive given the fact that five of the drugs have been on the market only since December, 2005, with ex-US approvals for these and others still growing.

A subset of these drugs with anti-angiogenesis effects totaled $4.6B, with 80% year over year growth. Drugs specifically targeting VEGF as cancer therapies totaled $2.1B, representing an 88% growth rate.

A quick glance at the 4th quarter indicates $2.5B in KD sales, equating to an annualized $10B. Assuming a simple organic growth rate of 20%, we're looking at $12B in sales, prior to expanded approvals and new product introductions.

New KD introductions could include, at a minimum, Tykerb (GSK), Torisel (WYE), Arxxant (Lilly), and potentially Tasignia (NVS). (Tykerb and Tasignia could cannibalize some existing sales.)

All told, we might see KDs contributing nearing $15B in annual sales in '07, with greater growth still to come.