關於北約東擴，我說幾句。。。

一，下麵這個鏈接是網友提供的（George Washington University 圖書館裏的 Archives):

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

提要大概就是這幾點：

The first concrete assurances by Western leaders on NATO began on January 31, 1990, West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher, “NATO should rule out an ‘expansion of its territory towards the east, i.e. moving it closer to the Soviet borders.”

February 10, 1990, meeting in Moscow between Kohl and Gorbachev when the West German leader achieved Soviet assent in principle to German unification in NATO, as long as NATO did not expand to the east.

On February 6, 1990, when Genscher met with British Foreign Minister Douglas Hurd, the British record showed Genscher saying, “The Russians must have some assurance that if, for example, the Polish Government left the Warsaw Pact one day, they would not join NATO the next.”

Baker tried out the “not one inch eastward” formula with Gorbachev in the February 9, 1990, meeting. He agreed with Gorbachev’s statement in response to the assurances that “NATO expansion is unacceptable.” Baker assured Gorbachev that “neither the President nor I intend to extract any unilateral advantages from the processes that are taking place,”

上述大致是西德總理科爾和外長，美國時任國務卿貝克等，均向前蘇聯總統戈爾巴喬夫表達過北約不會單方麵行動向東擴張。

二，北約擴張（https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Membership_Action_Plan)首先是要所有簽約國都同意才行。它是一個開放性的集體安全防衛組織。從成立起（1949年），就有不少國家加入。比如，希臘和土耳其，然後還有西德等。

三，1994年，北約成立了所謂“合作夥伴計劃”，這個計劃涵蓋所有前蘇聯包括獨聯體國家：

The Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme was established in 1994 and is based on individual bilateral relations between each partner country and NATO: each country may choose the extent of its participation.[168] Members include all current and former members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (From Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO)

一度，俄羅斯也表示過加入北約的意願。以此，北約的向東擴張，應該是沒有問題了。

四，1999年，前華沙成員國波蘭、捷克，斯洛伐克和匈牙利等國加入北約。2004年，立陶宛，拉脫維亞和愛沙尼亞等前蘇聯國家加入北約。對此，俄羅斯沒有提出異議。有兩點很重要：（1）立陶宛，拉脫維亞和愛沙尼亞是前蘇聯國家，它們的地位應該和烏克蘭是一樣的（雖然烏克蘭被俄羅斯吞並的曆史更久遠）；（2）因為俄羅斯對上述國家加入北約沒有異議，因此它就永久失去對其他前華沙成員國和前蘇聯國家（獨聯體）加入北約的反對權力。

結論：

某國以北約東擴，為俄羅斯普丁丁入侵烏克蘭開脫的理由不能成立。