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【華爾街信貸危機】我們是怎樣走到這一步的(上)

(2008-10-01 22:48:54) 下一個
當你手裏握著十萬美金,在經濟蕭條股市徘徊房市低落時,你大概不會有太多選擇,除了將現金存入銀行。但是,當經濟蓬勃,通貨膨脹,股市或房市牛氣衝天的時候,你又會怎麽做呢?不管你怎麽做,我敢保證,你一定會覺得你手裏的十萬美金是一隻很燙手的 "山芋"。

今天在華爾街發生的信貸危機 (Credit crunch),對美國經濟的影響是巨大的,以至於財政部長 Paulson,聯儲局主席 Bernanke 提出價值高達七千億 (700 Billion) 美金的 "救贖 (bailout)" 方案。

700 Billion 是個什麽樣的概念呢?如果你以為伊拉克戰爭耗資巨大,它每個月的消費是 10 billion。換句話說,700 billion 可以支持伊拉克戰爭打六年!

仔細觀察我們是怎樣一步一步走入這一危機的,是一件非常有意思的事情。

背景一:Regulation and Deregulation

中國建國初期一位國家領導人曾抱怨說,中國經濟是 "一抓就死,一放就亂",那還是社會主義中國。可是,資本主義的美國何嚐不是這樣呢?Deregulation 前的美國經濟,也是 "死氣沉沉"。

資本主義自由競爭的歸宿是吞並和壟斷 (Monopoly)。壟斷導致非法價格控製 (Illegal price fixing),損害消費者的權益。在反托拉斯法案 (Sherman Antitrust Act) 簽署通過前後,各類旨在保護和規範企業的法案也逐步建立。在此背景下聯邦政府分門別類設立了各種管理部門,被授權管理各類工商業 (所謂大政府概念)。

這些政府部門隨之建立起各種規章製度和管理措施用來規範企業界。但是到後來,這些條款竟逐漸淪為私營企業的 "保護傘"。這是因為規章製度和管理措施象是 "層層關卡",不利於新公司進入 (Entrance bars were set very high),由此不利於同行企業間的競爭。最典型的就是汽車工業,經過劇烈的競爭和吞並,隻有幾家大公司生存下來。這樣的結果不僅損傷了消費者的權益,更不利於新產品的推出 (試想一下,假如沒有日本車進入美國市場,我們會開什麽樣的車子)。

Deregulation 是從一九七零年開始到兩千年告一段落。在本質上它是不同於 Liberalization 的。Deregulation 主張一併消除政府對各類工商業的管理和限製,而 Liberalization 僅主張減少和簡化政府對經濟活動的管理和限製。

由於 Deregulation,entrance bars were lowed,新來的投資者可以加入競爭。比如美國航空業,到七零年代,僅由幾家大舊航空公司包攬,機票價格昂貴。這樣的結果不利於消費者的權益,也限製了航空業的發展。隨著航空業的 Deregulation,新出現的航空公司有的價格低廉,有的服務優良,有的快速捷便。與之相比,一些老的航空公司,如 Pan American World Airways (Pan Am) 等,在競爭中因經營不善而宣告破產。同時也出現了一批新的航空業巨頭,如西北航空,聯合航空等。

另舉一例是通訊業的 MCI (後成為 WorldCom,因經營不善而破產),MCI 的建立,打破了 AT&T 的壟斷,極大地壓低了 AT&T 控製的長途電話費用。記得好多年以前,北加州 101 高速公路旁,曾設立過一張電子牌,上麵寫著 "Because of MCI, consumers have saved $XXXX" (天文數字)。

可見,Deregulation 對三十多年來美國經濟的成長及消費者權益的保護都起到了促進作用,它對美國經濟發展的貢獻是不可抹殺的。而在 Deregulation 的過程中,共和黨和民主黨兩黨都曾經積極的參與和推動過。裏根總統是共和黨內的重要推手之一。

當然,一味的 Deregulation,不加管束也會造成災難,比如我們目前麵臨的信貸危機。


背景二:金融業的鬆綁與違規

一九二九年開始的經濟大蕭條 (Great Depression) 起始於股市暴跌,經過四年的調整,在羅斯福總統主持下,美國國會同過了 "Glass-Steagall Act (法案)"。對銀行的服務業務做規範同時,將商業銀行和投資銀行進行了區隔。該法案奠定了以後幾十年美國金融業的相對穩定。

筆者在八十年代中期來到美國,還記得那時候美國的銀行是不跨州的。同時,商業銀行提供的服務項目以儲蓄和借貸,以及支票帳戶管理為主。商業銀行不從事股票買賣,客戶保險以及債卷發放等業務。

銀行界 Deregulation 的推行,在八十年代中曾發生過 S&L Crisis (Small Saving and Loan Association Crisis。另文詳述,金筆注)。直接原因是裏根政府對 Saving and Loan (小型的儲蓄借貸銀行) deregulation,允許它們可以對個體小戶的小額存款進行無約束的投資。無約束的投資導致很多銀行主付出了慘重的代價,有的是誤投,有的是被欺詐,也有的是自己欺詐。總之,最後由於經濟的下滑,很多投資到最後顆粒無收,導致很多儲蓄借貸銀行債台高築。由於儲蓄借貸銀行不象是正規的商業銀行有 FDIC 的存款擔保,每一家儲蓄借貸銀行破產就意味這個體儲戶的錢收不回來。這造成民間極大的恐慌和騷動。

到後來由國會出麵,將 S&L 虧損的錢全部承擔下來,而納稅人為此付出了1250 億美金的天價 (在今天,這個價錢很可能是 2000 億)。

當然,聯邦對商業銀行的規範一直還是有的。這些規範中還包括規定銀行在投放貸款時,高擋風險,中擋風險和低擋風險的貸款需要有一定的比例。聯儲局,地方政府會定期檢查銀行的貸款記錄,如果銀行的高檔風險貸款超出一定比例就是違規。

時間到了九十年代中,世界進入 "全球化" 的進程中。歐洲諸國,包括瑞士,的一些集金融保險投資於一身的巨大商業公司,如 UBS,進入美國市場。美國的金融業巨頭,如 Citicorp,Chase 等商業銀行在跟這些歐洲公司的競爭中發現,因為它們隻能從事商業或個體借貸,不能涉入投資和保險業務,在與外國公司的競爭中處於不利地位。

當 Citicorp 在試圖收購 Traveller's Group 受阻後,他們開始在國會遊說,試圖改變立法。終於,一九九九年在共和黨人的推動下,克林頓總統簽署了 "Gramm-Leach-Blikey Act"。該法案除了允許商業銀行從事投資銀行 (股票買賣) 的活動外,還允許銀行向客戶銷售 Mortgage 衍生產品,收買保險,發行債卷,當做期貨 (或期權) 進行買賣 (Under NO regulation!!!)。同時,由於克林頓總統的堅持,法案還 "要求銀行向少數族裔和農業人士等提供貸款" 等指導性詞語。

Gramm-Leach-Blikey 法案的實施,可以說為此次信貸危機埋下了禍種。

(在 Gramm-Leach-Blikey 法案簽署前夕,克林頓的財政部長 Robert Rubin 辭職,一年後轉任 Citigroup 的 Chairman of the Executive Committee。而在法案簽署後,共和黨的參議員 Phil Gramm 離開了華盛頓,擔任 UBS Investment Bank 的 Vice Chairman)

所以,所謂 Deregulation,並不僅僅是共和黨人在推動,民主黨的克林頓總統同樣起了作用。

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閱讀 ()評論 (5)
評論
want_try 回複 悄悄話 修了高速公路, 必有慘烈車禍? 問題可能是駕駛者和警察. 這都發生在布屎任內.
武勝 回複 悄悄話 金融危機走到這一步兩黨都有責任,但共和黨是主要推動者. Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act就是共和黨提出的,它鬆綁商業銀行投資,令它們做得更大,鼓動風險投資. 克林頓向共和黨做過很多妥協,所謂比較靠中間的路線,現在共和黨人又拿這種妥協為例來推卸責任,似乎不大地道.
gq 回複 悄悄話 231名美國經濟學家致信國會,反對政府救市
作者:231名經濟學家
2008-10-02 02:16:54
發表評論 [0] 推薦本文 正體

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  致眾議院議長與參議院議長:

  作為經濟學家,我們要向國會表達:對於財政部長保爾森所提出的金融危機應對計劃,我們深感憂慮。我們清楚地知道當前金融形勢有多麽困難,我們也認為需要采取果敢行動才能確保金融體係繼續運轉。然而,我們認為目前提出的計劃存在三個致命的缺陷:

  1.不公平。該計劃是在用納稅人的錢補貼投資者。那些為了利益鋌而走險的投資者也必須承受損失才行。並非每一樁投資失敗都會引發係統性風險。即使不救援那些自己決策失誤的投資者和機構,政府也能確保金融業正常運行,向可信的借款者發放新的貸款。

  2.含糊不清。該計劃擬議成立一個新機構,但是其使命和監督機製都不清楚。如果要納稅人從陷入困境的賣家手中購買缺乏流動性和透明度的資產,那麽這些購買交易的條款、時機和操作方法都必須是事先徹底透明、事後得到妥善監督的。

  3.長期效應堪憂。假如該計劃投入實施,其效應將會持續一代人的時間。盡管最近麻煩重重,美國的富有活力和創新精神的私人資本市場畢竟為這個國家創造了前所未有的繁榮。為了平息短期幹擾而從根本上削弱那些市場是極其短視的做法。

  由於這些原因,我們呼籲國會不要匆忙決策,要進行適當的聽證,仔細考慮什麽才是正確的行動路徑,為美國金融業和美國經濟的未來作出明智的決定。

公開信英文版原文:

(This letter was sent to Congress on Wed Sept 24 2008 regarding the Treasury plan as outlined on that date. It does not reflect all signatories views on subesquent plans or modifications of the bill)

To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate:

As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:

1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.

2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.

3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.

For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.



Signed (updated at 9/27/2008 6:00PM CT)

Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Ackerberg Daniel (UCLA)
Adler Michael (Columbia University)
Admati Anat R. (Stanford University)
Ales Laurence (Carnegie Mellon University)
Alexis Marcus (Northwestern University)
Alvarez Fernando (University of Chicago)
Andersen Torben (Northwestern University)
Baliga Sandeep (Northwestern University)
Banerjee Abhijit V. (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Barankay Iwan (University of Pennsylvania)
Barry Brian (University of Chicago)
Bartkus James R. (Xavier University of Louisiana)
Becker Charles M. (Duke University)
Becker Robert A. (Indiana University)
Beim David (Columbia University)
Berk Jonathan (Stanford University)
Bisin Alberto (New York University)
Bittlingmayer George (University of Kansas)
Blank Emily (Howard University)
Boldrin Michele (Washington University)
Bollinger, Christopher R. (University of Kentucky)
Bossi, Luca (University of Miami)
Brooks Taggert J. (University of Wisconsin)
Brynjolfsson Erik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Buera Francisco J.(UCLA)
Cabral Luis (New York University)
Camp Mary Elizabeth (Indiana University)
Carmel Jonathan (University of Michigan)
Carroll Christopher (Johns Hopkins University)
Cassar Gavin (University of Pennsylvania)
Chaney Thomas (University of Chicago)
Chari Varadarajan V. (University of Minnesota)
Chauvin Keith W. (University of Kansas)
Chintagunta Pradeep K. (University of Chicago)
Christiano Lawrence J. (Northwestern University)
Clementi, Gian Luca (New York University)
Cochrane John (University of Chicago)
Coleman John (Duke University)
Constantinides George M. (University of Chicago)
Cooley, Thomas (New York University)
Crain Robert (UC Berkeley)
Culp Christopher (University of Chicago)
Da Zhi (University of Notre Dame)
Darity, William (Duke University)
Davis Morris (University of Wisconsin)
De Marzo Peter (Stanford University)
Dubé Jean-Pierre H. (University of Chicago)
Edlin Aaron (UC Berkeley)
Eichenbaum Martin (Northwestern University)
Ely Jeffrey (Northwestern University)
Eraslan Hülya K. K.(Johns Hopkins University)
Fair Ray (Yale University)
Faulhaber Gerald (University of Pennsylvania)
Feldmann Sven (University of Melbourne)
Fernandez, Raquel (New York University)
Fernandez-Villaverde Jesus (University of Pennsylvania)
Fohlin Caroline (Johns Hopkins University)
Fox Jeremy T. (University of Chicago)
Frank Murray Z.(University of Minnesota)
Frenzen Jonathan (University of Chicago)
Fuchs William (University of Chicago)
Fudenberg Drew (Harvard University)
Gabaix Xavier (New York University)
Gao Paul (Notre Dame University)
Garicano Luis (University of Chicago)
Gerakos Joseph J. (University of Chicago)
Gibbs Michael (University of Chicago)
Glomm Gerhard (Indiana University)
Goettler Ron (University of Chicago)
Goldin Claudia (Harvard University)
Gordon Robert J. (Northwestern University)
Greenstone Michael (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Gregory, Karl D. (Oakland University)
Guadalupe Maria (Columbia University)
Guerrieri Veronica (University of Chicago)
Hagerty Kathleen (Northwestern University)
Hamada Robert S. (University of Chicago)
Hansen Lars (University of Chicago)
Harris Milton (University of Chicago)
Hart Oliver (Harvard University)
Hazlett Thomas W. (George Mason University)
Heaton John (University of Chicago)
Heckman James (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Henderson David R. (Hoover Institution)
Henisz, Witold (University of Pennsylvania)
Hertzberg Andrew (Columbia University)
Hite Gailen (Columbia University)
Hitsch Günter J. (University of Chicago)
Hodrick Robert J. (Columbia University)
Hollifield Burton (Carnegie Mellon University)
Hopenhayn Hugo (UCLA)
Hurst Erik (University of Chicago)
Imrohoroglu Ayse (University of Southern California)
Isakson Hans (University of Northern Iowa)
Israel Ronen (London Business School)
Jaffee Dwight M. (UC Berkeley)
Jagannathan Ravi (Northwestern University)
Jenter Dirk (Stanford University)
Jones Charles M. (Columbia Business School)
Jovanovic Boyan (New York University)
Kaboski Joseph P. (Ohio State University)
Kahn Matthew (UCLA)
Kaplan Ethan (Stockholm University)
Karaivanov Alexander (Simon Fraser University)
Karolyi, Andrew (Ohio State University)
Kashyap Anil (University of Chicago)
Keim Donald B (University of Pennsylvania)
Ketkar Suhas L (Vanderbilt University)
Kiesling Lynne (Northwestern University)
Klenow Pete (Stanford University)
Koch Paul (University of Kansas)
Kocherlakota Narayana (University of Minnesota)
Koijen Ralph S.J. (University of Chicago)
Kondo Jiro (Northwestern University)
Korteweg Arthur (Stanford University)
Kortum Samuel (University of Chicago)
Krueger Dirk (University of Pennsylvania)
Ledesma Patricia (Northwestern University)
Lee Lung-fei (Ohio State University)
Leeper Eric M. (Indiana University)
Letson David (University of Miami)
Leuz Christian (University of Chicago)
Levine David I.(UC Berkeley)
Levine David K.(Washington University)
Levy David M. (George Mason University)
Linnainmaa Juhani (University of Chicago)
Lott John R. Jr. (University of Maryland)
Lucas Robert (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Ludvigson, Sydney C. (New York University)
Luttmer Erzo G.J. (University of Minnesota)
Manski Charles F. (Northwestern University)
Martin Ian (Stanford University)
Mayer Christopher (Columbia University)
Mazzeo Michael (Northwestern University)
McDonald Robert (Northwestern University)
Meadow Scott F. (University of Chicago)
Meeropol, Michael (Western New England College)
Mehra Rajnish (UC Santa Barbara)
Mian Atif (University of Chicago)
Middlebrook Art (University of Chicago)
Miguel Edward (UC Berkeley)
Miravete Eugenio J. (University of Texas at Austin)
Miron Jeffrey (Harvard University)
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Moretti Enrico (UC Berkeley)
Moriguchi Chiaki (Northwestern University)
Moro Andrea (Vanderbilt University)
Morse Adair (University of Chicago)
Mortensen Dale T. (Northwestern University)
Mortimer Julie Holland (Harvard University)
Moskowitz, Tobias J. (University of Chicago)
Munger Michael C. (Duke University)
Muralidharan Karthik (UC San Diego)
Nair Harikesh (Stanford University)
Nanda Dhananjay (University of Miami)
Nevo Aviv (Northwestern University)
Ohanian Lee (UCLA)
Pagliari Joseph (University of Chicago)
Papanikolaou Dimitris (Northwestern University)
Parker Jonathan (Northwestern University)
Paul Evans (Ohio State University)
Pearce David (New York University)
Pejovich Svetozar (Steve) (Texas A&M University)
Peltzman Sam (University of Chicago)
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Phelan Christopher (University of Minnesota)
Piazzesi Monika (Stanford University)
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Platt Brennan C. (Brigham Young University)
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Reagan Patricia (Ohio State University)
Reich Michael (UC Berkeley)
Reuben Ernesto (Northwestern University)
Rizzo, Mario (New York University)
Roberts Michael (University of Pennsylvania)
Robinson David (Duke University)
Rogers Michele (Northwestern University)
Rotella Elyce (Indiana University)
Roussanov Nikolai (University of Pennsylvania)
Routledge Bryan R. (Carnegie Mellon University)
Ruud Paul (Vassar College)
Safford Sean (University of Chicago)
Samaniego Roberto (George Washington University)
Sandbu Martin E. (University of Pennsylvania)
Sapienza Paola (Northwestern University)
Savor Pavel (University of Pennsylvania)
Schaniel William C. (University of West Georgia)
Scharfstein David (Harvard University)
Seim Katja (University of Pennsylvania)
Seru Amit (University of Chicago)
Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)
Shimer Robert (University of Chicago)
Shore Stephen H. (Johns Hopkins University)
Siegel Ron (Northwestern University)
Smith David C. (University of Virginia)
Smith Vernon L.(Chapman University- Nobel Laureate)
Sorensen Morten (Columbia University)
Spatt Chester (Carnegie Mellon University)
Spear Stephen (Carnegie Mellon University)
Stevenson Betsey (University of Pennsylvania)
Stokey Nancy (University of Chicago)
Strahan Philip (Boston College)
Strebulaev Ilya (Stanford University)
Sufi Amir (University of Chicago)
Tabarrok Alex (George Mason University)
Taylor Alan M. (UC Davis)
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Troske Kenneth (University of Kentucky)
Tschoegl Adrian E. (University of Pennsylvania)
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Wacziarg Romain (UCLA)
Walker Douglas O. (Regent University)
Walker, Todd (Indiana University)
Weill Pierre-Olivier (UCLA)
Williamson Samuel H. (Miami University)
Witte Mark (Northwestern University)
Wolfenzon, Daniel (Columbia University)
Wolfers Justin (University of Pennsylvania)
Woutersen Tiemen (Johns Hopkins University)
Wu Yangru (Rutgers University)
Yue Vivian Z. (New York University)
Zingales Luigi (University of Chicago)
Zitzewitz Eric (Dartmouth College)

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wunderlust 回複 悄悄話 謝掃盲,很有意思
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