【隨筆】聊聊零八年總統初選喜萊麗為什麽難贏

奧巴馬這次以黑馬身份跟喜萊麗較勁並暫時處於上風實在是出乎意料之外，當然喜萊麗接下來的選戰如果打好，翻本的機會還是有的，這包括剩下的 delegates, super delegates 以及弗羅裏達州的選票。

喜萊麗，加油!

下麵是我個人觀察到的有關這次選舉的一些事物，總結成幾點，跟大家一起分析討論。

1) 新聞媒體在暗中幫助奧巴馬。這來自兩個方麵。第一是在每個州選前作報道的時候，故意挑選一些白人口音的男女，在那裏激動的鼓吹自己會投奧巴馬一票，以此引導選民。公正的話，新聞媒體至少應當報道兩個人，一個支持奧巴馬，一個支持喜萊麗，因為喜萊麗至少獲得四成民眾的支持；第二是在報道喜萊麗和奧巴馬的競選演說時，highlight 挑選喜萊麗的段落總是顯得那麽有氣無力，軟綿綿的講話，而奧巴馬的講演總是所謂的 "精彩" 部分。除此之外，新聞媒體在選前公開嘲弄喜萊麗的笑聲，並關鍵時刻大肆報道她的眼淚雲雲，這均對喜萊麗的聲望有打擊作用。

2) 喜萊麗本身也是有明顯弱點的，這就是她的競選能力不足。在競選紐約州參議員的兩次選戰中，第一次如 "眾星捧月" 般，她擊敗的對手是魯迪·朱裏亞尼。而後者根本不是什麽玩藝兒。在共和黨本次大選中，魯迪敗得最慘。第二次競選連任，她的對手也是不堪一擊的。因此，喜萊麗當初戰勝的隻是二三流的競選弱手。在本次選舉中，喜萊麗應該很好的利用自己的老公比爾，但是當有媒體報道批評比爾的做法時，喜來麗又雪藏比爾，實際上這是最大的失策。因為喜萊麗到目前為止，實際上都是依靠比爾才上去的。沒有比爾，喜萊麗還隻是一個家庭主婦，職業婦女，孩子的媽媽。不管你同意不同意，喜萊麗今天會出來競選總統，主要還是因為比爾做過八年的總統。可是她卻偏偏聽信媒體，不用比爾作為主將幫她助選，自動放棄一張王牌，不輸才怪呢。

3) 奧巴馬確實也是很能說會道，能夠激勵民眾。同時奧巴馬的競選策略確實很狡猾。比如喜萊麗的競選演說裏總是充滿了具體行動方案和提綱，而奧巴馬什麽都沒有。沒有具體行動方案其實也是一個好的策略，因為一旦有具體的方案，雖然會贏得一部分人支持，但也會因此失去一部分人。不如泛泛而談比較安全。同時，奧巴馬大談改變和希望，又要談什麽結束 partisan politics (實際上是不可能的事)，騙得聽講演的人暈頭轉向，全都飄起來了。

4) 以他們兩個各自贏得的州的情況看，奧巴馬贏得的 democratic calculus 票 (公開投票) 比較多，而喜萊麗贏得的正規選舉票比較多 (個人在保密的情況下投票)。在 calculus 裏投票是要公開站隊的，很多地方的民主黨官員都是兩麵派，他們在公開場合都需要支持奧巴馬，這是出於對他們自己的選舉利益的考量 (因為他們自己在選舉時也需要黑人投票支持)，因此盡管民調顯示喜萊麗的支持度高，但選舉時 (指 calculus) 並不占便宜。原本是喜萊麗的很多票源就這麽流失了。

5) 民主黨內有相當一部分民眾 (至少百分之十到二十左右) 從根本上就反對家族式 Dynasty 統治，即老布什和小布什十二年，現在再來個比爾八年，喜萊麗八年，十六年的克林頓統治，對他們來說無論如何都不能接受。所以，從一開始他們投入約翰·愛德華的帳下，繼而又投入奧巴馬的帳下，在這同時黑人弟兄們幾乎一邊倒的投向奧巴馬，這也大大地打擊了喜賴麗的得票數。

6) 喜萊麗本人對當總統也想得要命，為了使自己的形象比較 "中立"，她在很多場合，特別是在伊戰上的立場，盡量保持 "強硬"，對她自己當年投下的授權票 "死不悔改"，這更激怒了很多激進的民主黨人，喜萊麗成了他們的 "叛徒"，必先誅之為快。這批人很激進，都投在了奧巴馬的帳下，一夫拚命，萬夫難擋。這使奧的力量大增。

最後，很多共和黨人對比爾和喜萊麗夫婦恨得要命，真是成也比爾·克林頓，敗也比爾·克林頓，喜萊麗對很多選票或者反對票是沒有選擇的。

可能還有其他原因，各位可以盡量補充。

那麽喜萊麗怎麽才能扭轉目前的不利局麵呢？

奧巴馬在他的網頁中寫到，他非常厭倦 partisan politics，並且聲稱他能夠打破 gridlock。奧巴馬說他要帶來 "改變"，給他的支持者 "希望"，但他如果不鬥爭，為民眾爭取利益，他怎麽為他的支持者帶來 "希望" 呢？他能改變的除了他自己，還有誰呢？

喜萊麗應該大膽的麵對選民，向選民指出奧巴馬的不誠實。她應當大聲的說："My opponent said that he is going to briing the changes and the hopes, but do you trust him? do you trust him?"

DO YOU TRUST HIM?

[TotallyAgree]

Obama給我的感覺象"憤青",煽動的也是一群對社會不夠深入了解的"憤青型".要不是現在的經濟環境的確很糟糕, Obama這樣的小醜是不會蹦太久的.
Hillary,堅持到底就是勝利!
我感覺如果不是Hillary勝出民主黨內的總統候選人提名,今年的總統肯定還是共和黨的天下.
不過, 今年可真是曆屆美國總統選舉最鬼異的一年, 都快趕上好萊鎢的電影劇本了.

[colourofwind]

I feel the same. obarma only talked, nothing much.But most of people still elected for him, that only means most of people don't have ability to justify what is right.

Another funny thing is: Every peopel is afraid of race discrimination. So every people is tring to woe black people. But black people only elect black peopel, they don't care what the world is thinking, why would American care what they are thinking.

I should say black people has more criminal and less education people exist,they are the nation which is civilized. Those are the facts, why we can not say it! This is most funny thing in the world.

[noso]

The best lines I ever heard from Obama:

"Hillary is part of Washington Democratic Network, she needs to be knocked out."

"It makes no difference if you change the soda cup, you need to change how the soda is made."

Do I trust him?

Not yet. : )

[michelle0195]

回複金筆的評論:
I am on your side. Can't trust Obama.

[風娉]

Obama的後台是索羅斯,誰鬥的過這瘋子?媒體是什麽東西?還不是利益至上,有奶便是娘.想當年索羅斯一手製造的亞洲金融風暴,要不是中國政府出手,香港乃至亞洲經濟早就完了.希拉裏沒錢如何與奧巴馬鬥.美國是金錢社會,離開了錢你能做什麽,除非華倫.巴非爾跳出來頂希拉裏,那還有希望.不過也許人多力量大,大家要團結起來,用實際行動來表明自己的觀點.輸贏並不重要,關鍵是我已盡力了.如果你真的支持希拉裏,還是去她的網站多捐點錢吧!
本人強烈鄙視那些選毒販,屁精為總統的投票人.我向我周圍所有的親朋好友亮明觀點:誰要是投奧巴馬這個人渣,就永遠不要和我往來,而且我說到做到.
因為物以類聚,人以群分.既然你會選這人渣,想來也不會是什麽好人,故列入黑名單,永不交往.

[SAR]

金筆,
I made up my just as you did. I have no trust to Obama.

[金筆]

Dear Joyce, I see your points, though I may not agree with you.

No doubt that you belong to the category No. 5 in my post, people who are Clinton haters.

Talking about dirty politics, I thought GOP is the one who often play with it, but not Hillary and Bill. You see, when Bill was in the White House, he did end social welfare program. But he said at that time he was going to restore it through presidential decree. Later he did and kept his promise. You know who benefit most through Welfare program? Blacks!

Clintons did so much for the blacks. Now there is someone who is just half black and had done virtually nothing for the blacks. Even more Barack will not attend New Orleans symposium Saturday because of “problem” in schedules. So he even wants to keep the distance from the blacks. You know what? Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton will be in New Orleans Saturday as part of Tavis Smiley's State of the Black Union symposium on education, health, housing and other issues affecting African-Americans.

Just because Barack is halfly black, almost all blacks vote for him, and ignore Clintons, what kind politics is that? And why you get so excited about him? J))

I tell you, I have voted mostly for Dems, but if Hillary loss, me and my few friends will definitely look the other way.

No offense. Thanks you for debating with me.

[joycehuang]

I have watched the presidential election from 1992 to present and casted my vote in 2000 and 2004. It is hard to vote for Hillary because she is not truthworthy and never hide her hungery for power. How can you vote for someone who thinks she is the best and she is entitled to tell you what to do and claims her husband's credit as hers even there is no co-president position in this country. If Hillary dare to release her white house document so I can see what she did or messed up when she was in the white houe, then I will treat her so called 35 years's experience seriously. Opportunitist should never be given power. Otherwise, they end up abusing the power. Change can only happen from bottom to top. This is why Hillary's campaign is falling apart and she is beaten badly in Feb. Remind you, Media only picks the winner! Hillary has name recongnition and the Clinton Machine, big money etc, But she is losing. So you know who is not honest, and who's change is real change. Even white men voted for Obama in Wisconsin. Why cannot we elect the first black president? Yes, I can trust Obama but not the Clintons!. The Clintons are past. We had enough Clinton dirty politics and want a new generation leader like Obama. BTW, I am not paid by Obama campaign.

[wumiao]

DO YOU TRUST HIM?
不能。
反感隻是嘴皮子上工夫的人，喜歡那些立了目標就做的人，即使有幾樣做不到，隻要說明，仍舊是好的。
西拉裏，加油！

[撣子的別院]

Obama即便是贏了民主黨內總統候選人提名,也未必就能成為美國第一個黑人總統,最多也就副的.占大多數的白人的現實是不會以Obama等少數黑人選民的意誌為轉移的.