The Fourth Turning Is Here by Neil Howe

It's interesting what one picks up on social media. The post in the feed

impressed on me nothing except for the book it quoted one line from. Two days

later, I even forgot the line when I looked up the book. I liked history but

didn't remember ever reading the work of a demographer.

 

That's only one hat Neil Howe wears. He's also a fund manager, which reminds me

of Peter Lynch who was a history major. And as I studied Lynch 20 years ago, I

had to read Howe.

 

The author organizes history and demography under the idea of the saeculum, a

80 to 100-year cycle observed in the ancient past and throughout modern Western

history. A saeculum consists of four generations, each of 20 to 25 years, likened

to one natural season, and corresponds to one pair of solidarity/High,

idealism/Awakening, freedom/Unraveling, and materialism/Crisis. For example, the

most recent four U.S. generations are the Boomers, Xers, Millennials, and

Homelanders(Gen Z).

 

The writing is not exactly scientific but just as a complex system defies precise

prediction and yet exhibits an unmistakable pattern, lists and connects 

observations to build a thesis that appeals strongly to intuition. Here, for

example, is a quote explaining the cycle of war and peace (p34):

      Peace makes plenty, plenty makes pride,

      Pride breeds quarrel, and quarrel brings war;

      War brings spoil, and spoil poverty,

      Poverty patience, and patience peace,

      So peace brings war, and war brings peace. - Jean de Meun

 

I appreciate the history lessons. My readings have often exposed me to isolated

historical events and over time have become at once engaging and frustrating

because they are not organized and easily forgotten. The idea of the saeculum

serves to sort them and connect the scattered dots in my mind to conform to

80/100 year cycles. The American saecula, for example, trace back to the

happenings in Europe, and consist the following list of Crises (p57)

      The War of the Roses 1455-1481

      The Armada 1569-1597

      The Glorious Revolution 1675-1706

      The American Revolution 1773-1794

      The Civil War 1860-1865

      The Great Depression - WWII 1929-1946

      The Millennial Crisis 2008-2033?

 

These provide pegs to hang things. When I see the dates of someone or something,

let's say Shakespeare's 1564-1616, I now can place him near the second item on the

above list and therefore understand where he came from when I read him.

 

The author argues convincingly that we are in a Crisis heading toward the climax

and it helps to learn what happened in the past Crises, which, for one thing,

would be useful to Xers trying to preserve their wealth. Howe says we are to

expect taxation, inflation, government debt(new bonds), and confiscation. After

the book, I listened to a few podcasts the author had been on and learned about

his fund and investment philosphy.

 

And it's more about wisdom than money. The cyclic model helps explain many

things because an event is only part of its setting that gets noticed. Timing is

just as, if not more, important. For example, the book "Democracy in America"

was based on a study in 1831 and the conclusion was "democracy was an inevitable,

global progression" from Wikipedia. How many of us still stick to that faith?

"One cannot imagine Tocqueville writing the same book in 1855," Howe opined.

 

Another acclaimed book arrived on the same day in the library, Raising Hare by

Chloe Halton. The next week, I continued with Howe and returned Raising Hare

unread. It had a waiting list and I wouldn't come back from "The Fourth Turning"

soon enough. Howe could be a little repetitive, the reading sometimes felt

long-winded and stuffy, but it talks about some of the most important things I

would like to know.