美國房地產投資最新觀察分析

美國的房地產市場正在進行一代人一次的價格調整. 明智同時持有現金的投資者也許在這裏能找到隻有一輩子才有的機會. 隨著經濟和借貸市場逐漸回暖之際, 這樣的投資回報也會遠遠超出當初的最大的設想.

 以下是我對當前市場的一點觀察:

 

我認為美國房地產的3個部分也正是反映了美國經濟的幾個分層.

A)豪宅或者擁有足夠現錢的屋主.(占市場份額的10%). 這些房產利用了相當數目的首付款, 並且保持管理的完好, 很少出現銀行法拍. 這些房產集中在: 人口集中區域(如曼哈頓), 手持現金的新移民(如法拉盛, 韓國城), 和新興工業發展區(如比佛利山莊和矽穀).

那些熱門區域的房價自從房市高峰期到現在隻下跌了5%-10%, 也許會隨著新移民流入和有限的新房供應而開始複蘇.

B)大量中產階級房子,(約占60%): 大部分這類房子從1997到2007年這十年期間由於過量次級貸款和低首付甚至零首付而價值瘋狂飆升. 殘酷的銀行法拍將這類市場價格調整下降了50%甚至75%.(比如佛羅裏達, 內華德和其他經濟衰敗區.) 而作為投資者, 在這裏卻絕對能在這舉步維艱的市場裏撿到“鑽石”。

C) 小鎮和郊區（占30%）（比如紐約上州等）。這些區域在過去12年也沒有房地產熱潮。但在良好的租賃市場下房價麵臨升溫的利好。

隨著房地產市場泡沫的繼續，租賃市場卻成了曆史新高。在大部分區域，平均租金下落很小。明智和富有現錢的投資者需要能鑒別那些相對便宜和相對租賃強勁的房產作為投資：那些靠近主要人口集中地的區域（比如紐約，芝加哥，洛杉磯）, 並且有合理方便的公共交通,  擁有公平公正的房產民事糾紛法庭(容易趕不良房客), 合理的低房產稅, 超過房產高峰期75%折扣的房價等等.

本文係個人觀點, 僅作參考. 歡迎閱讀討論並且指正. 謝謝!

 

America Real Estate is undergoing once-a-generation price correction. Smart and cash-rich investors may find once in-a-life opportunities. When the economy and lending improve, rewards could be beyond your wildest dreams.

My observation on the state of current markets:

 

I think there are 3 real estate segments, mirroring American's social/economical classifications:

 

 A) Luxury or equity/cash rich home owners (10% of the market). These properties were bought by large down payments, have maintained well, and with very few/non-existent foreclosures. These properties concentrate in: population centers (Manhattan), cash-rich immigrants (Flushing, Korean-town), areas with booming industries: Beverly Hills and Silicon Valley.

Housing prices in those HOT areas have corrected very little since peak (5 to 10%) and may start recovering due to influx of immigrants and limited new supplies.

B) Vast mid-class market (60%): the values of most properties shot up 100% to 200% from 1997 to 2007 largely due to aggressive subprime lending and low-down payments and no-down-payments. Due to relentless foreclosures, this large market has corrected on average 50%, some 75% (FL, NV and other economically depressed areas). There are definitely diamonds in this rough market for investors.

 

C) Small towns and rural areas(30%) (like update NY) which did not have a housing boom in the last decade, are in fact seeing a rise in housing value because of rental markets.

 

Because of this on-going housing bust, the rental market is at a historical high. Average rents have dipped very little in most areas. Smart and cash-rich investors should identify houses with strong rents and dirty cheap prices: Areas close to major population centers (NY, Chicago, LA), Reasonable commute/public transportation, A fair housing court (easy to evict), Reasonable low taxes, and over 75% discount to peak prices.

All above is only my personal comment, please do your own research when investing. I welcome your feed back and input. Thanks!