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颶風過後有晴天,噩夢醒來是早晨

(2011-08-29 14:03:48) 下一個

標題有點誇張,現在還不能說是晴天,但一個月內FAS被腰斬的感覺的確猶如噩夢。好在颶風過後的第一天漲勢讓人又看到了噩夢初醒後的曙光。明天漲跌雖然不能肯定,但是年底收複實地更有信心了。


這次Irene讓俺想起了7年前俺去Florida遭遇的史上第四大颶風Charley的經曆。從Florida回來後還在大千寫了一通股市隨想。今天拿出來看看,有點慚愧。俺在7年多前總結的一條教訓是:mitigate the risks, be prepared for the worst, and get out of harm's way while you can.


7年前俺總結的教訓這次也沒有實踐,大掉前已經有小掉不斷的預兆。設置保護或減少3x多倉應該是當時比較明智的措施。但是俺又一次輕敵了。想想這次東部幾州很重視這個並不上檔次的Irene是絕對有必要的。Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.


http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView_archives.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=150988&yr=2004




















some random thoughts
來源: smartmoney04-08-18 16:28:08[檔案] [博客] [舊帖] [轉至博客] [給我悄悄話]































     

After a 9 day vacation trip that sailed into harm's way, I finally managed to fly back home late Sunday night. My 發財樹 that I planted 3 months ago grew some new branches, and my portfolio also grew a little in the week I was on vacation. More importantly, I survived the hurricane and enjoyed a very memorable vacation. Life is good. I can now chat on daqian again and share some of my travel experience and thoughts.



Hurricane is unpredicatable just as stock markets are difficult to time
I booked the plan tickets and rental car two months ago for this family vacation in Orland and Tempa bay areas, never expected that charley and bonnie would visit the sunshine state in the same week. To make it even worse, Charley changed its course, and its eye striked orlando area on Friday night. I tried to changed the return flights from Saturday to anytime before Friday afternoon. NWA first denied my request when the seats were still available. When they allowed me to change, it's too late, there were no seats available. When I found out all the flights were canceled on Saturday morning after the storm, I already checked out hotel and returned rental car.
Lession learned: mitigate the risks, be prepared for the worst, and get out of harm's way while you can. I should have just paid change fee and flew out of there on Wed or Thursday.



Think possitively, act posstively and possitive results will come
Stranded in the airport, without a car to drive around, without being able to call out using my cellphone, I was a little frusted initially. All the direct return flights til 21st were sold out. I wanted to whine to NWA representatives about their bad services and their refusing changing my flight earlier. Then I realized whining would not help me to deal with adversity. Focusing on negative things would only add frustration and other bad feelings. Frustration and regret would only ruin my vacation. What happened already happened. I explored alternatives with NWA representatives. They then arranged tickets for my family to fly Continental from Miami to Houston then to DTW. I rented another car, drove 3 hours to Miami, toured the beach and flew home on Sunday night. What are the possitive things out of this experience?
first of all, we survived a category 4 hurricane! and we, especially my son, now have first hand knowlege about hurrican. Secondly, we toured one more beautiful city Miami otherwise we would not have seen. Thirdly, I got a free rental upgrade volvo 80 with gps:) the florida turnpike was free too the day after the hurricane. (BTW, megellan gps system is really helpful to drive around in a new city. It's really cool.) The list can go on and on...



Be a calm captain instead of whining baby
4th day into the vacation, my 7 year old heard me talking on the phone with NWA to change flights, he also heard the hurrican on the TV. He wept and kept asking if hurrican would hurt us and when we could get home. Many children have storm anxiety. We just toured Universal studio that day. My son was very scared by the special effect shows "Twister" and "Earth quake". His knowledge about cyclone is all from dramatic scary scenes on TV and movies. I could totally understand his fear for storms. But I am the captain of the family. If I also show my nerviousness, the vacation would be ruined, we would spent rest 4 days in fear in hotel room measerablly. Instead, we continued our vacation outdoor as normal until Friday afternoon. Seeing dad behaving like normal, my son also calmed down and forgot the upcoming storm. We waited out in the hotel room Friday night. Now my son knows that hurricane is powerful, but he is no longer that fearful because he experienced it and survied. We all can survive a powerful storm as long as we protected ourself. I now also understand a little better about some people's anxiety in a downtrend market. But I do hope adults here act better than a child, stop whining about bad luck in the markets. Respect the power of the markets, but don't be overwhelmed by the fear.
Market goes up and down. Life goes one. Don't blame markets or others for your losses. Be a man or at least act like a man!


   

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