米國債比股市對經濟預測的更準確

科班學金融和經濟都知道：米國債比股市對經濟預測的更準確。市場最關心的問題是米國是不是會再次衰退，最近出來的經濟數據都增加了幾率。QE2是個失敗的實驗，市場和FED對qe3不會抱太大希望。

PIMCO: Treasury market reflects likelihood of recession

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, said on Friday the rally in Treasury yields to 60-year lows reflect a high probability of recession in the United States.

Gross, the co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $1.2 trillion, also told Reuters Insider television it is apparent that policy options are limited.

"It is increasingly apparent to us that policy options are limited and that economic growth is slowing down," said Gross said. "There's no doubt that growth from the standpoint of employment or unemployment and growth from the standpoint of corporate profits is definitely a risk -- whether or not we see a positive 1 percent real GDP number I think is besides the point."

Gross said low Treasury yields are flashing recessionary conditions.

"They certainly reflect, in terms of their yields, not only a potential for a recession but the almost high probability of recession and the result of lowering inflation."

很罕見的經濟現象，與日本90年代雷同：recession in lowering inflation!!!