交易禪
把握市場趨勢；交易在當下；風險第一，盈利第二。
鐵兄做的一支股，今天開始跟蹤。
TA
看著weekly和daily chart， 離開短期底不遠了；就算今天進一部分，也很劃算 （Risk/Reward) ;再保守點，不見K線反轉不撒鷹。
FA
Amgen Falls On Medicare Worries
02.16.11, 6:00 PM ET
Amgen shares sank 1.6% Wednesday after Eric Schmidt, an analyst at S.G. Cowen, wrote that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services might be tough on the company’s anemia drugs, Epogen and Aranesp, in draft guidance expected before March 15.
Schmidt argued that the draft guidance might put a damper on usage of the anemia drugs (known as ESAs, or erythropoietin-stimulating agents) not only before kidney dialysis (a $200 million market, Schmidt says) but also after dialysis (a $2.5 billion market). He suggests CMS might suggest lowering usage across the board.
Schmidt wrote: "We believe certain constituencies within CMS would like to use the low confidence vote from MEDCAC to argue that ESAs are not medically useful or necessary, and that hemoglobin targets should be lowered to the lowest level possible to avoid any safety risks."
But Schmidt kept an outperform rating on the stock, meaning that he thinks that it is a buy, because he expects the company’s core business to continue to grow while its osteoporosis and bone cancer drug, denosumab, represents “a multibillion dollar opportunity.” But Schmidt said via email: “I’m not surprised the stock sold off a bit considering we raised a potential new risk (albeit a short term one) for the first time.”
Mark Schoenebaum at ISI Group mounted a more spirited defense of Amgen shares toward the end of the day. He wrote, in a note to investors, that he had taken his base-case model and “destroyed it,” taking estimates for every drug way down and assuming none of Amgen’s research projects work out and that denosumab is only a modest success.
"Even under this incredibly unlikely scenario," Schoenebaum wrote, "we get to $50/share, which is near the stock’s current ~$52 price. It’s probably time for true DEEP value investors to take a look, in our opinion."
As was previously seen with Dendreon, biotech investors are terrified with CMS. Is that a reason to avoid the stock, or a wall of worry for shares to climb? It’s hard to tell – but that is, as they say, what makes a market.
