交易禪
把握市場趨勢；交易在當下；風險第一，盈利第二。
Lack of Jobs, Foreclosures May Keep Housing in U.S. Depressed
Pat Lashinsky knows what’spreventing his U.S. real-estate brokerage firm from attractingmore customers. He also knows there is little he can personallydo to make it right.
“There’s a mindset of fear of losing employment,”Lashinsky, chief executive officer of Emeryville, California-based ZipRealty Inc., said in an interview yesterday. Housing“is not in a very good position right now.”
Sales of new homes probably held at a 330,000 annual pacein July, the second lowest on record, according to the medianestimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead ofCommerce Department figures today. Another report may showbusiness investment is one of the few economic bright spots.
New-home purchases, a leading indicator of demand becausethey are calculated when a contract is signed, indicate themarket for existing homes will not rebound much following lastmonth’s record 27 percent drop even after the lingeringinfluences of a government buyer incentive wear off. A prolongedhousing slump may weaken the economic recovery, making it morelikely Federal Reserve policy makers will take additional stepsto spur growth.
“The housing problem is a problem for the broader economy,and until that comes back, we won’t have a robust recovery,”said Nicolas Retsinas, director emeritus of Harvard University’sJoint Center for Housing Studies in Cambridge, Massachusetts.“Jobs are going to be the key factor in the recovery, and wehave a job market that’s sluggish.”
The Commerce Department report on home sales is due at 10a.m. in Washington. Estimates ranged 291,000 to 355,000.
Taking Longer
The houses being offered by ZipRealty are taking about fivemonths to six months to sell, twice as long as in 2008, saidLashinsky.
Sales of previously owned single-family homes plunged to a3.37 million annual rate last month, the fewest since 1995,figures from the National Association of Realtors showedyesterday. At that pace, it would take 11.9 months to sell allthe properties on the market, the most since 1983.
Demand for new houses plummeted 37 percent in May, themonth after a government tax credit worth as much as $8,000expired. Purchases climbed 24 percent in June, leaving them at a330,000 pace, the second-lowest in data going back to 1963.
The inability of sales to snap back more, even with thelowest mortgage rates on record, is testament to the underlyingweakness in demand as unemployment hovers close to 10 percentand Americans are concerned over job prospects.
Unemployment Outlook
Company payrolls rose a less-than-forecast 71,000 in Julyand were revised down for the previous month, the LaborDepartment reported Aug. 6. Economists surveyed by Bloombergforecast unemployment will end the year at 9.5 percent,unchanged from the rate in June and July, and average 9.1percent in 2011.
“Housing’s incapacity to turn around is a very big reasonwhy this recovery is so weak,” said Ellen Zentner, a senioreconomist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York.
Gains in business investment on new equipment may be onearea that is still supporting growth, economists project anotherCommerce Department report at 8:30 a.m. may show.
Orders for durable goods increased 3 percent in July, themost since January, according to the median forecast ofeconomists surveyed. Excluding transportation equipment, ordersrose 0.5 percent, the survey showed.
That may explain why shares of manufacturers shares areoutperforming homebuilders and the broader market. The Standard& Poor’s Supercomposite Machinery Index is up 5.9 percent so farthis year. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilder Index is down 13percent while the S&P 500 Index is down 5.7 percent.
Competing with Foreclosures
Builders have to compete with existing homes on the market,where supply has been swollen by the so-called shadow inventoryof foreclosures and short sales, in which banks accept less thanthe outstanding balance on a mortgage.
“We need resale inventory, namely foreclosure inventory,to come down before we’re going to see any meaningful move inthe housing market,” Richard Dugas, chief executive officer atPulte Group Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Televisionon Aug. 20.
The excess supply is one reason Jan Hatzius, chief U.S.economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, is projectingproperty values will fall over the next one to two years.
Fed policy makers will probably need to resort to“additional monetary stimulus via asset purchases or otherunconventional measures” to shore up the economy, Hatzius saidin an interview with Tom Keene yesterday on Bloomberg Radio.
Federal Reserve
Central bankers on Aug. 10 made their first attempt toshore up the recovery by pledging to maintain their holdings ofsecurities and prevent money from draining out of the bankingsystem.
In a bid to prop up the market, the Obama administrationplans to offer $1 billion in zero-interest loans to helphomeowners who’ve lost income avoid foreclosure as part of $3billion in additional aid targeting economically distressedareas.
Bloomberg Survey
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Durables Durables New Home New Home
Orders Ex-Trans Sales Sales
MOM% MOM% ,000’s MOM%
==============================================================
Date of Release 08/25 08/25 08/25 08/25
Observation Period July July July July
--------------------------------------------------------------
Median 3.0% 0.5% 330 0.0%
Average 3.1% 0.4% 331 0.2%
High Forecast 6.8% 2.0% 355 7.6%
Low Forecast 1.2% -1.0% 291 -12.0%
Number of Participants 75 48 74 74
Previous -1.2% -0.9% 330 23.6%
--------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. 4.5% 0.5% 310 -6.1%
ABN Amro Bank 2.5% 0.5% 335 1.5%
Action Economics 3.5% 0.5% 325 -1.5%
Aletti Gestielle SGR 3.0% --- 340 3.0%
Ameriprise Financial Inc 2.0% 0.0% 330 0.0%
Banesto 2.5% --- 340 3.0%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 2.3% --- 326 -1.2%
Bantleon Bank AG 3.2% 0.2% 315 -4.6%
Barclays Capital 2.0% 0.5% 347 5.2%
Bayerische Landesbank 3.2% 0.5% --- ---BBVA
2.0% 0.8% 340 3.0%
BMO Capital Markets 3.0% 0.5% 330 0.0%
BNP Paribas 2.0% --- 325 -1.5%
BofA Merrill Lynch Research 2.0% 0.5% 345 4.6%
Briefing.com 3.2% 0.5% 300 -9.1%
Capital Economics 4.5% -1.0% 350 6.1%
CIBC World Markets 3.2% 1.0% 337 2.1%
Citi 4.2% -0.2% 340 3.0%
ClearView Economics 2.5% --- 350 6.1%
Commerzbank AG 4.0% 0.5% 320 -3.0%
Credit Agricole CIB 2.6% 0.4% 334 1.2%
Credit Suisse 2.5% 0.5% 310 -6.1%
Danske Bank --- --- 327 -0.9%
DekaBank 4.3% --- 340 3.0%
Desjardins Group 2.5% --- 330 0.0%
Deutsche Bank Securities 3.0% 0.0% 340 3.0%
Deutsche Postbank AG 3.0% 0.5% --- ---DZ
Bank 4.2% 0.7% 315 -4.6%
Exane 2.5% 0.8% 300 -9.1%
First Trust Advisors 6.5% 2.0% 340 3.0%
FTN Financial 1.5% 0.5% 325 -1.5%
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 4.0% --- 314 -5.0%
Helaba 2.3% --- 330 0.0%
HSBC Markets 3.8% 0.0% 320 -3.0%
Hugh Johnson Advisors 2.0% --- 320 -3.0%
IDEAglobal 3.0% 1.0% 345 4.6%
IHS Global Insight 5.0% --- 325 -1.5%
Informa Global Markets 4.0% --- 340 3.0%
ING Financial Markets 3.0% 1.0% 325 -1.5%
Insight Economics 1.5% --- 340 3.0%
Intesa-SanPaulo 2.8% 0.5% 330 0.0%
J.P. Morgan Chase 2.5% -0.6% 330 0.0%
Janney Montgomery Scott 3.2% -0.8% 344 4.2%
Jefferies & Co. 2.2% --- 355 7.6%
Landesbank Berlin 6.8% 1.2% 340 3.0%
Landesbank BW 1.5% --- 320 -3.0%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez --- --- 335 1.5%
MF Global 5.0% -0.5% 330 0.0%
MFC Global Investment 3.0% 1.0% 325 -1.5%
Moody’s Economy.com 5.9% 0.6% 317 -3.9%
Morgan Keegan & Co. 1.3% --- 309 -6.4%
Morgan Stanley & Co. 3.5% --- 330 0.0%
National Bank Financial --- --- 330 0.0%
Newedge 2.0% 0.2% --- ---
Nomura Securities Intl. 2.5% --- 330 0.0%
Nord/LB 3.5% 0.8% --- ---
Pierpont Securities LLC 2.7% --- 340 3.0%
PineBridge Investments 3.8% -0.2% 355 7.6%
PNC Bank 1.2% --- 350 6.1%
Raiffeisen Zentralbank 4.0% -1.0% --- ---
Raymond James 1.6% 0.2% 320 -3.0%
RBC Capital Markets 1.8% -0.2% 327 -1.0%
RBS Securities Inc. 2.9% --- 350 6.1%
Scotia Capital 3.5% 0.6% 320 -3.0%
Societe Generale --- 1.0% 340 3.0%
Standard Chartered 3.0% 0.5% 340 3.0%
State Street Global Markets 3.7% 0.7% 322 -2.4%
Stone & McCarthy Research 2.8% --- 340 3.0%
TD Securities 2.6% 0.1% 325 -1.5%
Thomson Reuters/IFR 5.5% 0.6% 338 2.4%
Tullett Prebon 3.0% 0.6% 320 -3.0%
UBS 3.0% --- 330 0.0%
UniCredit Research 2.0% 0.3% 340 3.0%
University of Maryland 1.5% --- 330 0.0%
Wells Fargo & Co. 2.0% 1.0% 338 2.4%
WestLB AG 2.0% --- 320 -3.0%
Westpac Banking Co. 5.0% --- 291 -12.0%
Woodley Park Research 4.3% --- 337 2.1%
Wrightson ICAP 5.0% --- 350 6.1%
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