解讀今日 GDP (zt)

U.S. Economy Grew 2.4% in Second Quarter, Below Forecast

By Timothy R. Homan - Jul 30, 2010

Growth in the U.S. slowed to a 2.4percent annual rate in the second quarter, less than forecast,reflecting a larger trade deficit and an easing in consumerspending.

The increase in gross domestic product compared with amedian forecast of 2.6 percent of economists surveyed byBloomberg News and follows an upwardly revised 3.7 percent pacein the first quarter that showed a jump in inventories,according to figures from the Commerce Department today inWashington. Business investment climbed at the fastest ratesince 1997.

A slower pace of growth means employers may be reluctantto hire workers and more likely to keep a lid on prices inorder to boost sales. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernankelast week said the central bank is prepared to take furtherpolicy actions if the world’s largest economy “doesn’t continueto improve.”

“The economy is muddling through,” Ethan Harris, head ofNorth America economics at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch GlobalResearch in New York, said in an interview after the report.“We’re probably not going to see a really strong number for awhile. We need to see some pickup in job growth.”

Stock-index futures extended earlier losses after thereport. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell1.2 percent to 1,084.2 at 8:55 a.m. in New York. Treasurysecurities climbed, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-yearnote down to 2.92 percent from 2.98 percent late yesterday.

Median Forecast

The projected gain in GDP was based on the median estimateof 81 economists surveyed. Forecasts ranged from gains of 1percent to 4 percent.

The worst U.S. recession since the 1930s was even deeperthan previously estimated, reflecting bigger slumps in consumerspending and housing, according to the Commerce Department’sannual revisions also issued today.

The world’s largest economy shrank 4.1 percent from thefourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, comparedwith the 3.7 percent drop previously on the books, the reportshowed. Household spending fell 1.2 percent in 2009, twice asmuch as previously projected and the biggest decline since1942.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent ofthe economy, rose at a 1.6 percent pace last quarter, comparedwith a 1.9 percent rate the previous three months that wassmaller than previously estimated, today’s report showed. Jobgains have been slow to take hold, curbing household purchases.

Lost Jobs

The economy lost 8.4 million jobs during the recessionthat began in December 2007, the biggest employment slump inthe post-World War II era. So far this year, company payrollsgrew by 593,000 workers, according to Labor Department figuresearlier this month.

More than 7 out of 10 Americans say the economy is stillmired in recession, and the country is conflicted over how tobalance concerns over joblessness and the federal budgetdeficit, according to a Bloomberg National Poll.

Just like the experts, Americans are torn about whetherthe federal government should focus on curbing spending orcreating jobs, the poll conducted July 9-12 shows. Seven of 10Americans say reducing unemployment is the priority. At thesame time, the public is skeptical of the President BarackObama’s stimulus program and wary of more spending, with morethan half saying the deficit is “dangerously out of control.”

Government Stimulus

Obama is trying to garner support for his plan to provide$12 billion in tax breaks, ease terms for loans guaranteed bythe Small Business Administration and create a $30 billion fundto help community banks offer loans to small businesses.

The trade gap in the second quarter widened to $425.9billion from $338.4 billion, subtracting 2.8 percentage pointsfrom growth, the biggest reduction since 1982, today’s reportshowed. Imports grew at a 29 percent pace, while exportsclimbed 10 percent.

Manufacturers in the U.S. are reaping the benefits of theglobal recovery. Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker ofconstruction equipment, last week raised its full-year earningsforecast on higher demand in developing countries for mining,energy and rail equipment.

“You’ve got strong growth in India and China thatprovides demand for commodities,” Chief Financial Officer EdRapp said in an interview July 22. “Most of the mining ishappening in the developing parts of the world.”

Manufacturing Shares

Manufacturers are benefiting as companies here and abroadupdate equipment and add to inventories. The S&P SupercompositeMachinery Index, which includes companies such as CaterpillarInc. and Deere & Co., is up 13.5 percent so far this yearthrough yesterday. The broader S&P 500 Index is down 1.2percent.

Gains in business investment are also supporting growth.Corporate spending on equipment and software jumped at a 22percent annual rate, the biggest increase since 1997.

Amazon.com Inc., the world’s largest online retailer,forecast third-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimatesafter it cut prices on the Kindle, its best-selling product,and propelled capital spending to a record.

Under Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos, capital spendingballooned to $196 million last quarter as Amazon.com built morewarehouses to safeguard a growing array of products that rangefrom books to car parts. He’s also adding data centers to beefup a business of providing computing services to companies.

The jump in capital spending was the largest year-over-yearincrease for the second quarter since 2005, Amazon said.

Inflation Stable

The Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is tied to consumerspending and strips out food and energy costs, rose at a 1.1percent annual pace after an upwardly revised 1.2 percent ratein the first quarter, today’s report showed. The revision mayhelp ease concern over deflation, or a projected drop inprices.

Today’s GDP report is the first of three for the quarter,with the other releases scheduled for August and September whenmore information becomes available. Today’s data consists ofJune estimates for trade and inventory figures, which will notbe available until next month.