交易禪
把握市場趨勢；交易在當下；風險第一，盈利第二。
Bond King Bill Gross: I Prefer Stocks Over Bonds Right Now
The bond king now likes stocks.
Bill Gross, co-CIO at Pimco where he helps manage the world's largest bond fund, said in an interview with CNBC that all things considered, he prefers stocks over bonds in the current investing climate.
"Let's suggest the economy looks good, that risk assets— whether it's high-yield bonds or whether it's stocks—have a decent return relative to the potential of declining bond prices," he said in an interview. "I'll go with the stock market."
Several factors will make things difficult for the bond markets ahead, not the least of which is the recently passed health care law.
Prospects that the health care plan could add to the US deficit would make the nation's debt less attractive to investors because of an increase in supply and less fiscal stability.
While sovereign issuance in countries with stronger economies and lower debt—Gross mentioned Germany and Canada specifically—look better, other countries such as the US and United Kingdom don't offer the same promise.
"That brings up the health care situation and the $40 trillion worth of present value in terms of entitlements we have in the United States," he said. "We just added in my opinion another $500 billion in terms of health care and the markets are beginning to look at that suspiciously."
Gross spoke about an hour after a poorly received Treasury auction of five-year notes sent US debt prices down sharply and yields jumping higher.
With the Federal Reserve exiting its purchases of mortgage-backed securities, that will make the landscape even more challenging as the government looks for the funds to pay for health care and other expensive entitlement programs.
"It will be up to us, to the market...to finance the ongoing deficit," Gross said. "So we're just going to have to be a little more cautious in simply ascribing an A-plus or B-minus to a bond auction," he said.
That could, at the same time, create a friendlier environment for stocks.
"All assets to some extent relate to the same conditions—economic growth, the potential for inflation, central bank policy," he said. "To the extent that stocks are now basking in a growth revival, more than green shoots, there is a chance that stocks keep going."
