invest2win
invest 2 win
11/12/2009
你或許會問，＂我隻是投資美國國內的股市（DOMESTIC），隻有少量的國際基金（INTERNATIONAL），美元的匯率和我有什麽關係？＂
其實，關係很大。這都是源於＂carry trade＂。
所為的＂carry trade＂就是借貸（borrow／short）低利息的貨幣而投資到風險大的資產（risky asset），如股票，黃金，石油等，以尋求更大的收益。因為日本實施零利息的政策已經很久了，所以很長時間以來，日元一直是國際炒家用來作＂carry trade＂的貨幣。在２００８年中油價達到＄１４７時，日元的匯率一度達到新低。但自從美聯儲把利息降到零後，美元已取代日元而作為＂carry trade＂的貨幣。
美國的失業率居高不下，１１月的勞工部統計的失業率更是達到了兩位數。所以美聯儲在最新的會議通告中強調超低（exceptionally low）利息還會持續很長一段時間（extended period of time）。這無疑是給炒家繼續＂短＂（short）美元一個定心丸。直接的結果就是美元匯率的下跌。
所以最近的風險資產的價格不斷的上漲，很大的原因是美元的匯率持續下滑的結果。（DXY just made a new low since March 2009 at 74.77）。這也可以解釋為什麽股市不怕高失業率而創出了自三月以來的新高。
這個情況會持續多久呢？很難說。因為左右匯率的因素太多，＂carry trade＂隻是其一。但當炒家反向操作（unwind）時，美元匯率就會回調，其後果就是風險資產的價格下跌。這就是所謂的風險回避交易（risk averse trade）。
其實，２００８年中就是一個很好的例子。其後發生的事相信大家還記得。所以，I２W認為市場風險比較大。
I don't know about the politics, since politician have a differnt agenda. But when politic and economy entangled together, like they did in the aftermath of Leahman bankrupcy in Sep 2008, that is not a good sign. So, if the next bail out bill passed in the congress, it is time to go short the market. :-)
thank you so much for the info! I would say that the status of those current bills on the Congress floor would be a good indicator for downfall to begin, do you agree?
As said in the article, it is hard to predict when the risky/reflation trade will be over. There is a saying, "picking a market top or bottom is an exercise of futility." But the scary thing is I don't remember a time in recent history where so many risky asset’s fate are tied to single currency's move. Not even middle of 2008 come close, when only oil and other commodities were making new high, while stock is already into the correction for over half year (since Oct 2007). If we take a look at separate risky asset's recent price move, there is already some crack showings:
1) gold is making all-time high
2) oil is consolidating after the low 80s recovery high.
3) stock just made recovery high in DOW and SP500, but NDX has not made recovery high.
This is non-confirmation in technical term. If the non-confirmation persist, all the risky asset's prices will be resolved to the downside,
Seasonally, stock is in the benign Nov-Dec period. So, it might take some time for it to roll over. My hunch is when the calendar turn (to 1/1/2010), so is the price of stock. I remembered when 1/1/2008 rolled in, stock made a quick dive in the first calendar week.
disclaimer: this is my personal opinion.
魯比尼已經預警這個carry trade 將造成資產泡沫。你估計這個泡沫什麽時候會爆？