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波段小課堂 --- 何時見底,market capitulation才見底.

(2009-10-30 19:11:29) 下一個
今天股市老師白天講課講累了.波段同學是半瓶子晃蕩,不敢再憂國憂民,咱們自學吧.

這才跌幾天,有同學就耐不住了,心情可以理解,但時間因素不理解,價格因素和成交量因素也不理解.

還是前天那個老問題,當一列火車從山頭上翻下來的時候,會在半山腰自己停下來嗎? 火車會拐彎嗎?

什麽時候火車才能停下來呢, market capitulation! 對了,隻有market capitulation出現,火車才會拐彎地....

什麽是market capitulation呢?

簡單地說,就是八年抗戰勝利,小日本鬼子投降.威武的中國人民解放軍挺進大江南,解放全中國.

有同學說,你又忽悠俺們,要等那老久啊...同學們,一定要對革命充滿信心,革命勝利的那一天一定會到來!

market capitulation那一天,就是偉大領袖毛主席站在雄偉的天安門城樓上莊嚴宣布:中國人民從此站起來了!的那一天.

上麵的確是在忽悠大家.哈哈哈哈.人不忽悠長不大.

真正的market capitulation是什麽呢?

就是散戶們舉手投降,全都割肉割在地板上.

割吧,昭倉也割了...唐塔也割了...你也割了吧....前麵藍天多麽的藍啊..割了吧...


What is market capitulation?


By definition, capitulation means to surrender or give up. In financial circles, this term is used to indicate the point in time when investors have decided to give up on trying to recapture lost gains as a result of falling stock prices. Suppose a stock you own has dropped by 10%. There are two options that can be taken: you can wait it out and hope the stock begins to appreciate, or you can realize the loss by selling the stock. If the majority of investors decides to wait it out, then stock price will likely remain relatively stable. However, if the majority of investors decides to capitulate and give up on the stock, then there will be a sharp decline in its price. When this occurrence is significant across the entire market, it is known as market capitulation.

The significance of capitulation lies in its implications. Many market professionals consider it to be a sign of a bottom in prices and consequently a good time to buy stocks. This is because basic economic factors dictate that large sell volumes will drive prices down, while large buy volumes will drive prices up. Since almost everyone who wanted (or felt forced) to sell stock has already done so, only buyers are left - and they are expected to drive the prices up. (If you are unfamiliar with these principles, check out our Economics Basics Tutorial.)

The problem with capitulation is that it is very difficult to forecast and identify. There is no magical price at which capitulation takes place. Often, investors will only agree in hindsight as to when the market actually capitulated.



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