隻有想不到，沒有做不到
投資，股票，計算機
(注：本文大部分來源於一位老師的博文，覺得有用，特此炒來與大家共賞，不喜歡的飄過）
What is the point of making predictions?
Peter Drucker — 'Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.
Anyone who has traded long enough knows that price action usually happens before an event. The old 'buy the rumor - sell the news' axiom.
Crude oil, the US Dollar, commodities, bonds, precious metals, gold miners... my perspective on all of them in 2015 were rather accurate. Just a lucky guess? Perhaps. Here are my 2016 predictions. Let's see how lucky I get this coming year.
(1) Bonds of all shapes and sizes will have a dramatic sell-off.
在2015年開始我看到了一個強勁反彈的債券市場，$ TLT的20年期國債有一個尖銳的舉動直衝近$140，$ TLT此後回落至$120元。我想$ TLT可以在第一2016年上半年在$100附近。債券泡沫將最終破滅。我們會看到放氣的垃圾債券泡沫。將蔓延至債券市場的其他部分，包括10年，這飄搖坐鎮缺乏長期的支持。當它崩潰，將帶來海量的賣點。在$ TLT20年期債圖表已壓縮和看起來蓄勢大幅走低。
The 10 year bond looks on the brink with a support break likely to wet the sellers appetite.
(2) Interest Rates Will Begin to Normalize in 2016 As Defaults Bring 'Raise the Risk'.
Bottom Line: It will cost more to borrow money in 2016.
美聯儲上調聯邦基金利率0.25個基點，至2016年底，在可預見的未來, 我不認為他們會做的遠不止於此。但是，這並不意味著處於曆史低位的利率不會上升，在美國，美聯儲的零利率政策和量化寬鬆政策的方案一直保持利率在低水平。隨著擱置兩項政策，信貸趨於穩定的供應量，利率將開始恢複其自然風險定價狀態 -- '正常化'。在這個中央計劃的世界，新標準是利率嚐試價格風險，而不是中央銀行的承諾。
風險風險風險。更多的違約在整個能源行業裏的風險是沒有什麽可以幫助的東西。波多黎各已經拖欠其部分債務。問題是，誰是下一個，以及金融市場如何避險？債務利率的定價應該在違約風險不會對美聯儲的零利率政策構成危險的時候實施。
人為的低利率使我們又回到另一個巨大的危機。企業已習慣異常低利率，在2016年企業會依靠額外債務，Corporations relying upon additional debt to make their current debt payments will go belly up in 2016. Countless loans handed out at the peak of the FED's 'easy money policies' will default。債務違約是通貨緊縮。噗。這筆錢也沒有了。
(3) The US Dollar Index will rally to a new 14 year high... and then some.
雖然美聯儲已下調其最大的利空美元的政策，其他央行依然準備並願意提高自己。
As debt defaults become more prevalent amid higher interest rates and funding issues, the demand for the US Dollar increases at a time when supply is drying up.
After breaking into triple digits for the first time in 12 years in 2015, the US Dollar recent consolidation has set the stage for a massive rally in 2016.
(4) The historic bull market in stocks and housing that started in March 2009 will come to an end.
如果當前的市場是房子, 如果你在2007年買了一個破爛不堪的房子：油漆開裂，地板吱吱，壁板會被扭曲，屋頂瓦丟失，充滿坑洞，一個生鏽的信箱車道....you would just take out a giant home equity loan and fix the place up. If it was 2008 the home owner would just stop paying the home equity loan and talk nice to the mortgage company. If it was 2015, one of the best years for housing since the housing bubble, the homeowner would sell and buy something else. Mortgage rates have never been lower.
Which has helped fuel a 5% rise in home prices this year.
Low interest rates make that fixer upper with peeling paint and a crappy 1980's style green tiled bathroom cheaper to buy. That green tiled 80's bathroom doesn't look as nice when interest rates rise. Those buying a house in 2015 are going to be underwater in 2016.
and the stock market isn't going to like the higher costs of borrowing. A stronger US Dollar will make corporate exports more expensive. A stronger dollar will make Dollar denominated assets aka the US Stock market, more expensive to own.
The market will come back to test the August 2015 lows.
And when that happens I think there is a good chance they will not hold.
(5) The corporate share buyback bubble POPs -
有多少公司已回購自己的股票，通過發行債券在過去的幾年裏。 為什麽？因為高管薪酬是基於股票。
The higher the stock price the higher their compensation AND corporations view stock buybacks as an efficient use of company capital, excess or otherwise attained. I wrote about it a year ago:
While corporate buybacks could be viewed as a sign that all is well... just think for a second what the opposite means. A company like $FCX recently suspended its dividend for the first time since.... drumroll.... 2008. Look where they decided to suspend the dividend ----- after the stock declined some 75%. .. not before. Corporations are not the smartest investors.
A company like Home Deport looks brilliant buying back its own stock when it keeps surging to record highs. If Home Depot continues to increase its share buyback scheme at some point it will own all of its stock..... but of course there will always be dilution from executive compensation... so we've got that going for us... which is nice....
At the lows during the financial crisis Home Depot was a $14 stock. It recently surged over $135 a share. You could argue the Home Depot share buyback machine is the smartest investor of our generation.
$14 to $135 in five years? Who is that masked investor? It's a bird, its a plane, noooo... why its the corporation itself. It will be tougher , if not impossible in 2016 for corporations to finance and continue their robust share buyback schemes. On top of that, the buybacks have masked dilution from executive compensation. The slow steady, relentless bid of yesterday year could easily turn into a nasty sell-off. The old stairs to the top and elevator to the basement.
This will take most of 2016 to materialize fully. But as the market is forward looking, the selling could start earlier rather than later. 'BUY' the time these buyback machines are put on pause the trade for downside will already be in full swing.
Conclusion:
Since the March lows in 2009 every Central Bank in the world has instituted untested, uncharted, and unprecedented policies. Here we are 6+ years later and we are going to start seeing the consequences of these policy's. Ultimately, no matter what the FED, ECB, Japanese, Chinese, Australians do the World is headed toward deflation. You are already seeing it via the commodity and crude oil collapse. While I mused previously that crude oil is 2015's landline telephone, the rout in prices has yet to hit a nadir. The commodity meltdown is even more telling. World Population is growing, yet demand is shrinking... prices will have to come down to meet demand. Yet Central Banks are trying to keep prices higher to avert another collapse and financial crisis. Perhaps they will succeed for another few years. Perhaps, just perhaps, all those crash callers will finally be right in 2016.
