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C is different from AIG and FRE.

(2009-02-22 20:17:28) 下一個

AIG's preferred never converted to common! But that's not the most important difference. If you have any basic financial knowledge, you know the business model is different. C has very stable income: deposits. The steep yield curve basically is giving money to the bank every day. But what C lack is time. The mark-to-market model is killing it.

For a little trader with a small brain, he wouldn't understand why the government will pay $10 for C instead of $2 or lower. The government has to think in long term.

If you think for the long term, the really long-term, like 5 to 10 years. When the financial crisis is over, if C is still standing, don't you think it will be worth $100 billion? (for reference, JPM is worth $80 as of Friday).

Another example is MS. Some Japanese bank is paying over $20 when MS is trading below $10! But the deal still closes at $20, not $10. You know why? Use your brain to think about it.

Basically, two positive for the C deal:

1. billion of preferred dividends don't need to be paid to the government.

2. The government may need to inject more capital in the future. Some estimates with big bear Roubini's model say that C at most need another $22 billion in the future, that's only 20% additional common stock. But even with that much capital, there is still no nationalization. So this is big positive.
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