AAPL up 10% AH, can the market rally from here?

2009-01-21 Wednesday.

Wow, what a difference a half day can make. Just after I put my original post out shortly before noon EST, market rallied and rallied hard, even without AAPL’s earning help.

And guess what? After hour, AAPL came through and delivered again. It just did what it always has done before and beat the earning estimate. Big deal! (yawn). Only that this time around, expectation is so low that this quarter’s number is really a shot in the arm for the bull. AAPL is up some 10% AH, not bad for a day’s work. :-)

So, market should take the cue from AAPL and follow through tomorrow to the upside. Happy day is here again! I wish it were that easy.

This rally looks like a typical violent bear market rally. It should top out in the next day or two (after GOOG’s earning) after the short term oversold condition worked off.

Several things worth noting: 1) After this week, earning season is winding down, i.e. earning support is gone. 2) Obama has sworn in, i.e. no inauguration support. 3) sentiment is still too complacent to make a significant market bottom. 4) wild card: another big shoe could fall from all these landmine: financial, commercial real estate, hedge fund world, auto (remember GM?), retail...