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PARIS (Dow Jones)--Monetary policy in the U.S. will remain highly accommodative for quite some time, and possibly beyond 2010, because of a weak inflation outlook and high unemployment, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said Friday.
Inflation is underrunning and the economy is underperforming, so an accommodative policy is likely to continue to be appropriate, I would say well into 2010, most likely beyond, Charles Evans told media on the sidelines of a central-banking conference in Paris.
Evans said the U.S. inflation outlook is in the order of 1.5% core for the next few years--the next two years at least, and unemployment in the U.S. will edge up further in the next two quarters.
I think that policy is going to be highly accommodative--as it is now--for quite some period of time, Evans said.
Evans specified that U.S. joblessness will stay above the natural rate, or a rate consistent with an effective use of capacity.
U.S. unemployment stood at 10.2% in October--the highest rate in more than 26 years.
It\'s likely to be in the 9% area in 2010 and hopefully around 7% by the end of 2011, he estimated.
Turning to growth, Evans said that the U.S. economy is likely to grow by roughly 3% over the next 18 months.
That\'s positive but modest, he added.
Evans hinted that the Federal Reserve will only gradually shift to a more restrictive monetary-policy stance.
Interest on excess reserve is one way to inject additional restrictive policies, Evans said.
We could do it right away, if that was appropriate, Evans said, adding it\'s not [right now].
Another way for the Fed to withdraw stimulus would be to undertake reverse repurchases, he said.
I am pretty confident we can shift to a more restrictive policy when the time is appropriate--presumably that\'s an extended period beyond where we are now, Evans said.
-By Nina Koeppen, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 171 569 4340; nina.koeppen@dowjones.com
Inflation is underrunning and the economy is underperforming, so an accommodative policy is likely to continue to be appropriate, I would say well into 2010, most likely beyond, Charles Evans told media on the sidelines of a central-banking conference in Paris.
Evans said the U.S. inflation outlook is in the order of 1.5% core for the next few years--the next two years at least, and unemployment in the U.S. will edge up further in the next two quarters.
I think that policy is going to be highly accommodative--as it is now--for quite some period of time, Evans said.
Evans specified that U.S. joblessness will stay above the natural rate, or a rate consistent with an effective use of capacity.
U.S. unemployment stood at 10.2% in October--the highest rate in more than 26 years.
It\'s likely to be in the 9% area in 2010 and hopefully around 7% by the end of 2011, he estimated.
Turning to growth, Evans said that the U.S. economy is likely to grow by roughly 3% over the next 18 months.
That\'s positive but modest, he added.
Evans hinted that the Federal Reserve will only gradually shift to a more restrictive monetary-policy stance.
Interest on excess reserve is one way to inject additional restrictive policies, Evans said.
We could do it right away, if that was appropriate, Evans said, adding it\'s not [right now].
Another way for the Fed to withdraw stimulus would be to undertake reverse repurchases, he said.
I am pretty confident we can shift to a more restrictive policy when the time is appropriate--presumably that\'s an extended period beyond where we are now, Evans said.
-By Nina Koeppen, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 171 569 4340; nina.koeppen@dowjones.com
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