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Economists and others weigh in on the 3.5% growth in GDP.
* Big contributors were consumer spending on autos — cash for clunkers — federal government, inventories and housing — tax credit… Core issue: how much of this is sustainable without Fed programs? –John Silvia, Wells Fargo
* We need many quarters of GDP running at this pace (or faster) to make significant inroads into reducing unemployment. –RDQ Economics
* The most important “surprise” was the larger-than expected drop in inventories. That implies that businesses are further along in their drive to realign stocks with current demand and suggests they must soon rely more heavily on current period production to satisfy on-going growth in demand. Score that as a positive for the outlook. But other details look less promising. About 40% of the increase in consumer spending came from motor vehicles, reflecting the transitory boost from the cash-for-clunkers program. As auto sales recede in the fourth quarter, consumer spending is likely to grow much less rapidly. Similarly, state and local governments seem likely to face tougher cutbacks with no further boost from the fiscal stimulus while defense spending is likely to cool. Meanwhile, residential investment looks likely to keep growing but at a less vigorous pace while business investment spending growth looks unlikely to improve much more until a clearer picture on consumer demand emerges. However, net exports seem likely to resume an improving trend as the weak dollar and nascent Asian recovery boosts exports while import growth slows. –Nomura Global Economics
* While Cash for Clunkers was a big help, outlays for nondurable goods and for services both picked up as well… We expect growth to remain solid over the next two quarters. Even though final demand (most notably, consumption) will probably decelerate noticeably in the fourth quarter, the inventory liquidation phase should be coming to a gradual end over the next six months. As a result, GDP growth should be boosted materially in the fourth and first quarters, as businesses bring their output back up to match their sales. –Stephen Stanley, RBS
* The fact that the economy exceeded expectations of a 3% rise means that the growth bulls will maintain their 3.5% fourth quarter growth assumptions; however, the stress line in the economy showing through in the latest data still keeps my double dip scenario alive. Now the focus shifts to the labor market and the upcoming auto sales numbers to assess the sustained ability of the rebound. –Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities
* Today’s GDP report saw government spending rise by another 2.3% after increasing 6.7% in the second quarter. While this number fell, it largely reflected national defense, which rose just 8.4% after gaining 14% in the second quarter. Nondefense spending by the federal government rose 6.8%, more than the 6.1% growth in the second quarter. Given that this category of government spending has risen 3.57% on average this decade, this can be viewed as direct evidence of the stimulus package having a positive effect on economic output. –Dan Greenhaus, Miller Tabak
* The biggest upside surprise in the report was a sharp jump in defense spending, but there should be significant moderation in this component going forward. There is no way to make a precise determination of the impact of the $787 billion fiscal stimulus package that was enacted in February, but we suspect that the impact was quite modest — perhaps a percentage point or so. Note that state and local government spending was -1.1% in the quarter (very close to our expectation) and consistent with our view that the infrastructure spending component of the stimulus has not yet had any impact. In sum, we continue to believe the impact of the fiscal stimulus legislation enacted back in February is quite modest — and very stretched out. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley
* The final handful of dirt on the Great Recession’s grave: today’s data provides a needed psychological end to seven quarters of shrinking economic output. While there’s a great deal of uncertainty as to conditions for the coming few quarters and years, at least we can say the last few months have been good ones for output. We remain very much concerned, however, that the pace of consumer activity will slow sharply now that government spending incentives are expiring. Our overall impression on today’s data was positive, however. –Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott
* We expect economic growth to continue at about the same pace for the next few quarters, as pent up investment demand is released, inventories are restocked and the boost from the fiscal stimulus continues. Our concern, however, is that all those positive factors will fade badly in the second half of next year. If consumption growth remains unusually lacklustre, then GDP growth would slow to a crawl again. –Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics
* All things considered, this was a very good report, and suggests that the U.S. economy has finally shaken off the shackles of the deep economic recession and is beginning the economic recovery process. However, with the significant fiscal and monetary stimulus providing the main impetus for this sharp rebound, we expect GDP growth in the coming quarters to be less robust as their impact wanes, though we do expected the recovery process to remain intact. –Millan L. B. Mulraine, TD Securities
* The most important factor limiting growth will be households continuing to struggle with ravaged balance sheets and lingering labor market weakness. Moreover, many negatives related to sour commercial real estate loans, consumer lending, commercial & industrial loans, non-subprime mortgage lending, etc. are yet to be felt as far as banks and other creditors are concerned, while soft demand and substantial spare capacity will weigh on any recovery in capital spending. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.
* Big contributors were consumer spending on autos — cash for clunkers — federal government, inventories and housing — tax credit… Core issue: how much of this is sustainable without Fed programs? –John Silvia, Wells Fargo
* We need many quarters of GDP running at this pace (or faster) to make significant inroads into reducing unemployment. –RDQ Economics
* The most important “surprise” was the larger-than expected drop in inventories. That implies that businesses are further along in their drive to realign stocks with current demand and suggests they must soon rely more heavily on current period production to satisfy on-going growth in demand. Score that as a positive for the outlook. But other details look less promising. About 40% of the increase in consumer spending came from motor vehicles, reflecting the transitory boost from the cash-for-clunkers program. As auto sales recede in the fourth quarter, consumer spending is likely to grow much less rapidly. Similarly, state and local governments seem likely to face tougher cutbacks with no further boost from the fiscal stimulus while defense spending is likely to cool. Meanwhile, residential investment looks likely to keep growing but at a less vigorous pace while business investment spending growth looks unlikely to improve much more until a clearer picture on consumer demand emerges. However, net exports seem likely to resume an improving trend as the weak dollar and nascent Asian recovery boosts exports while import growth slows. –Nomura Global Economics
* While Cash for Clunkers was a big help, outlays for nondurable goods and for services both picked up as well… We expect growth to remain solid over the next two quarters. Even though final demand (most notably, consumption) will probably decelerate noticeably in the fourth quarter, the inventory liquidation phase should be coming to a gradual end over the next six months. As a result, GDP growth should be boosted materially in the fourth and first quarters, as businesses bring their output back up to match their sales. –Stephen Stanley, RBS
* The fact that the economy exceeded expectations of a 3% rise means that the growth bulls will maintain their 3.5% fourth quarter growth assumptions; however, the stress line in the economy showing through in the latest data still keeps my double dip scenario alive. Now the focus shifts to the labor market and the upcoming auto sales numbers to assess the sustained ability of the rebound. –Steven Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities
* Today’s GDP report saw government spending rise by another 2.3% after increasing 6.7% in the second quarter. While this number fell, it largely reflected national defense, which rose just 8.4% after gaining 14% in the second quarter. Nondefense spending by the federal government rose 6.8%, more than the 6.1% growth in the second quarter. Given that this category of government spending has risen 3.57% on average this decade, this can be viewed as direct evidence of the stimulus package having a positive effect on economic output. –Dan Greenhaus, Miller Tabak
* The biggest upside surprise in the report was a sharp jump in defense spending, but there should be significant moderation in this component going forward. There is no way to make a precise determination of the impact of the $787 billion fiscal stimulus package that was enacted in February, but we suspect that the impact was quite modest — perhaps a percentage point or so. Note that state and local government spending was -1.1% in the quarter (very close to our expectation) and consistent with our view that the infrastructure spending component of the stimulus has not yet had any impact. In sum, we continue to believe the impact of the fiscal stimulus legislation enacted back in February is quite modest — and very stretched out. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley
* The final handful of dirt on the Great Recession’s grave: today’s data provides a needed psychological end to seven quarters of shrinking economic output. While there’s a great deal of uncertainty as to conditions for the coming few quarters and years, at least we can say the last few months have been good ones for output. We remain very much concerned, however, that the pace of consumer activity will slow sharply now that government spending incentives are expiring. Our overall impression on today’s data was positive, however. –Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott
* We expect economic growth to continue at about the same pace for the next few quarters, as pent up investment demand is released, inventories are restocked and the boost from the fiscal stimulus continues. Our concern, however, is that all those positive factors will fade badly in the second half of next year. If consumption growth remains unusually lacklustre, then GDP growth would slow to a crawl again. –Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics
* All things considered, this was a very good report, and suggests that the U.S. economy has finally shaken off the shackles of the deep economic recession and is beginning the economic recovery process. However, with the significant fiscal and monetary stimulus providing the main impetus for this sharp rebound, we expect GDP growth in the coming quarters to be less robust as their impact wanes, though we do expected the recovery process to remain intact. –Millan L. B. Mulraine, TD Securities
* The most important factor limiting growth will be households continuing to struggle with ravaged balance sheets and lingering labor market weakness. Moreover, many negatives related to sour commercial real estate loans, consumer lending, commercial & industrial loans, non-subprime mortgage lending, etc. are yet to be felt as far as banks and other creditors are concerned, while soft demand and substantial spare capacity will weigh on any recovery in capital spending. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.
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