insight
工程技術，地產投資，信仰家園，時尚生活
早報導讀
對私人住宅發展商而言，今年是一個銷量紅火的年頭。雖然價格上升幅度不如過去兩年顯著，但銷量卻是創下了有史以來的新高，而這一紀錄在未來多年裏相信都不容易被打破。
根據市區重建局（URA）的數據，發展商在今年前三個季度共售出1萬7844個私宅單位，10月和11月的預估數據則顯示共有3035個單位在這兩個月內售出，使得今年前11個月的總銷量達到2萬零879個單位。
分析師普遍預測，今年全年的銷量將達到2萬2000個單位，較去年的1萬5904個單位激增38％，也比前年創下的曆來銷量紀錄1萬6292個單位高出35％。
欣樂國際（SLP）執行董事麥俊榮相信，即使私宅銷售市場在12月趨於淡靜，但若要使全年銷量突破2萬2000個單位仍然是不在話下，從而使得銷量達到難以突破的新高。
“明年的銷量則相信會介於1萬6000至2萬個單位，因為畢竟將會有很多新項目推出，而盡管政府在兩個月前剛推出新的降溫措施，但低利率、高租金回報率等支撐銷量的市場因素依然存在。”
德偉產業（DWG）培訓、研究與谘詢部高級經理李思德讚同這一看法。他認為在考慮經濟展望的擔憂、投資者轉向海外房地產和商用房地產的可能性等因素後，明年的私宅銷量預計將依然能夠達到月均1300至1500個單位。
他表示，今年前11個月的銷量達到月均1900個單位，明年要達到這樣的水平將會相當困難，但隻要沒有出現意料之外的嚴重經濟衝擊或利率上調等情況，發展商相信還是能賣出1萬6000至1萬8000個單位。
也有分析師相信 銷量會因經濟展望不明朗被拉低
不過，還是有分析師相信銷量會被經濟展望不明朗的因素所拉低，仲量聯行（JLL）新加坡研究與谘詢部主管王德輝便預計，明年的私宅銷量將下滑至1萬4000至1萬7000個單位。
第一太平戴維斯（Savills）研究與谘詢部董事張敏璋則更看低至1萬至1萬2000個單位，因為他覺得今年的銷量激增主要是由於政府在去年大量增加了土地供給。
“相比之下，今年的政府售地計劃比去年有所放緩，這便意味著明年推出的新項目數量將不會如今年這麽多，從而使得銷量較低，月均可介於800至1000個單位。”
另一方麵，在銷量創新高的當兒，今年的私宅價格則雖然繼續呈上升趨勢，但增速已顯著放緩。市建局的私宅價格指數在第一季同比下滑0.1％，在第二季和第三季則分別同比上揚0.4％和0.6％。
高力國際（Colliers）研究與谘詢部主管謝岫君指出，私宅價格全年的漲幅預計會在2％以內，較去年的5.9％和前年的17.6％有所放緩，顯示政府穩定價格的努力還是產生了顯著的效用，明年則相信會趨於穩定。
“在經過六輪的降溫措施後，私宅市場的炒作和投資行為一定程度上已經減少，使得價格開始出現趨於穩定的跡象。但是盡管如此，政府如果覺得降溫效果仍然有限，便絕不會在出台更多措施上手軟。”
世邦魏理仕（CBRE）私宅部執行董事陳金道則表示，雖然私宅價格在明年繼續上揚的可能性不大，但如果要出現下滑恐怕也不太可能，主要是考慮到發展商在今年標地時所承擔的較高地價，因此不太可能降低新項目的售價。
“對於位置優越的好項目而言，需求預計還是會維持強勁。市場對於豪華項目的興趣也格外濃厚，特別是外國人，他們尤其覺得投資豪宅是為財富保值的好方法。”
不過，麥俊榮、李思德和張敏璋則都繼續看好明年私宅價格的走勢。
麥俊榮指出，價格會繼續上漲主要是因為低利率、高流動性、通脹壓力、市場買家信心等推動銷量的主要因素仍舊維持不變，因此有望使得私宅價格在明年取得1％至5％的年比漲幅。
李思德說：“近期地價的走高將會讓一些新項目嚐試挑戰價格新高，促使價格可能在明年上漲達5％。不過，如果價格連續兩個季度維持較高漲幅，政府相信便會再度出手，可能會對買家的債務收入比率設限。”
張敏璋則指出，市建局的價格指數其實有些過於學術，事實上市場普遍覺得今年有些地區的價格漲幅高達5％至10％。“就明年而言，一些大眾和中檔公寓的價格很可能進一步上揚10％至15％。”
《聯合早報》 （編輯：梁嘉芪）
2012 record year for property market
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Despite six rounds of cooling measures in the last couple of years, the private property market continued its uptrend unabated in 2012.
Although data for December is yet to be out, but both sales volume and prices of new private homes have already surpassed previous highs.
In the past two years, the Yaps have bought four private properties, three of which were in 2011.
They hold to the view that property investments are a good hedge against inflation.
But with property prices hitting the roof, the family of four is finding it increasingly difficult to find new investment opportunities.
Prices of private homes have gone up by 3.7 per cent so far this year, according to Savills. And experts expect marginal increases in 2013.
A property investor, Soh Poh Neo, said: “Even if rental is coming down, we still can support the mortgage payment because loan-to-value (LTV) is very much lower so mortgage monthly instalment is also much lower. So yield will be coming down in view of the supply but interest rate is low, so it is not so frightening. I believe that not many people will sell in a crash situation because everyone has good holding power. The latest cooling measures caught people like me being filtered out. Next what am I going to do, I will use my children’s name to buy – they have longer term for the loans.”
The Yaps used their son’s name – 23-year-old Travis Yap – for the latest purchase of a unit at eCo.
Since 6 October, property investors like Madam Soh and her husband Mr Yap, aged above 35, could borrow less from banks to finance their mortgages.
The latest cooling measure, which has also capped loan tenures at 35 years, is the sixth to be implemented in Singapore in the last couple of years.
Experts said more cooling measures may be implemented if home prices do not show signs of easing. But with the current low interest rates and access liquidity in the market, property investors are finding it easy to finance mortgage loans, and this may drive demand and home prices higher going forward.
DTZ’s research head for Asia Pacific, Chua Chor Hoon, said: “The government may be looking at the HDB market, at the rules and regulations over there, because a high proportion of buyers in the private condominium market are people with HDB addresses. So these could be people who are not just upgrading but buying a private condominium for investment purposes.”
To cope with demand, the government has increased the supply of land for new private homes through its Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme.
For the first half of next year, the GLS programme will put up 12 private residential sites including five for executive condominium projects put up for sale. These will yield some 14,035 private and executive condominium units.
But since 2011, the total number of units yielded from the government land supply has been getting less – from 14,300 units for GLS H1 2011 to 14,100 units for GLS H1 2012 and 14,035 units for H1 2013.
Savills Singapore’s research head, Alan Cheong, said: “This year, the high supply numbers and therefore the high demand numbers were a by-product of the very aggressive 2011 government land sales supply. But moving into 2013, you find that the 2012 GLS numbers were much more muted. And these will be launched next year. So next year and corresponding the new home sales numbers would come through at a more sedate pace.”
Knight Frank’s research head, Png Poh Soon, said: “The assessment from our house view is from 16,000 to 18,000 for the whole year. Compared to 2012, which our assessment and forecast is up to 22,000. In terms of price wise, we don’t foresee that in 2013 there will be any quick correction. But on the other hand, we don’t think there will be runaway prices. We foresee that prices will trend upwards but at a slow steady pace.”
Another trend that will see the property market cooling in 2013 – capping the total number of units that can be built on a site for non-landed private residential developments outside the central area from 4 November 2012, reducing the number of investors looking to buy a property that requires less capital.
Chua Chor Hoon said: “Volume will come close to it but won’t surpass because a lot of shoebox units have been sold so we will see larger units.”
Up till November, nearly 21,000 new units have been sold. This have already surpassed the previous record where about 16,000 units were sold for the whole of 2010.
Source : Channel NewsAsia – 21 Dec 2012
