有地私宅資產價值三年來大增 東部獨立式洋房價格翻倍

趙愷健 (2012-07-25)

中央區的有地私宅在過去三年內的價格漲幅比不上東部的項目。東部獨立式洋房資產值上漲104.4％，而中央區獨立式洋房的價格則上漲了82.3％。圖為荷蘭綠園的一個有地私宅項目。（檔案照片）

　　過去三年，有地私宅的資產價值大幅增長。東部的獨立式洋房的表現最為亮眼，三年來資產值上漲104.4％，價格翻倍。

　　根據橙易產業谘詢公司（OrangeTee）的報告顯示，有地私宅的價格已經增長了多達79.7％，遠遠超越了非有地私宅的47.9％價格漲幅。

　　報告指出，自從2009年第二季以來，反映私宅市場價格的市區重建局私宅價格指數已連續十個季度上升，直到今年第一季微跌0.1％。有地私宅在這段期間平均每個季度價格上升4.7％，超過非有地私宅3.0％的價格漲幅。

　　橙易產業認為，有地私宅的價格大幅增長，是因為市場上新完成的有地私宅項目變少了。過去三年中，平均每季度隻為市場增加了73個項目。這個供應量遠遠比不上1995年至2009年這段期間，每季度平均完成180個新項目的速度。

　　此外，根據今年第一季的數據，在所有私宅項目中，有地私宅隻占25.9％；而在2010年第一季，有地私宅的比率占了27.8％。相對越來越稀有的有地私宅項目，也是推動有地私宅過去三年內價格大漲的原因。

　　以有地私宅項目的類別來進行比較的話，其中獨立式洋房的價格漲幅是最大的，達84.1％，相等於平均每季度價格上升4.8％。排屋以及半獨立式洋房三年來的價格漲幅則分別是81.4％與70.1％。

　　其中，位於東部的獨立式洋房的表現最為亮眼，三年來資產值上漲104.4％，價格翻倍。緊隨著的則是東北區以及中央區的獨立式洋房，價格分別提高了83.4％與82.3％。這也相等於他們的價格平均每季度上漲了6.3％、5.3％以及4.7％。

　　在排屋當中，依然是東部的價格漲幅最大，季度價格漲幅為5.2％。半獨立式洋房價格漲幅則由東北區的項目領跑，平均每季價格上揚5.4％。

　　有地私宅料成為 長期投資者風險避風港

　　展望有地私宅的市場前景，橙易產業認為隨著新加坡居民財富的增長，加上有地私宅項目的有限供應，這個領域的項目預計會成為長期投資者的一個風險避風港。

　　他們認為，雖然價格漲幅預計會放緩，但由於新加坡吸引越來越多富裕人士前來居住，加上本地居民的財富增長，會支撐著有地私宅項目的需求；而相對有限的存貨與未來可用來建造有地私宅項目的地段，也意味著供應方麵會受到限製。因此，有地私宅市場依然受投資者青睞。

　　另一方麵，高力國際（Colliers）昨天發布的一份私宅市場報告則指出，在非有地私宅項目方麵，雖然高檔地區（核心中央區，簡稱CCR）的銷售與價格在上個季度都有所上漲，但是發展商在推出豪華與超級豪華的項目時都變得更加謹慎了，買家對於這些價格特別高昂的項目興趣依然隻是溫熱。

　　隨著豪華與超級豪華項目在市場中的活動較為平靜，高力國際的研究顯示豪華與超級豪華公寓的平均資產價值繼續下滑，截至今年6月底，每平方英尺的價值環比下跌了3.8％到2768元。每月的平均毛租金也下降了0.8％至每平方英尺5.64元。

　　報告指出，由於去年底推出的額外買家印花稅以及今年第二季取消了“金融投資者計劃”（Financial Investor Scheme, FIS）與經濟發展局將修改了“全球投資者計劃”（Global Investor Programme, GIP），壓抑了對於豪華與超級豪華公寓項目的外來需求，對於這些項目的買賣與出租都產生了影響。

　　接下來的半年，由於預計海外派駐人員人數將緩慢增長，而市麵上會推出更多新項目的供應，因此高力國際預計豪華與超級豪華公寓的平均每月毛租金將保持平穩或微跌。

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《聯合早報》

UBS forecasts dip in home prices by 10%-15%

Straits Times: Wed, Jul 25

RESIDENTIAL property prices might fall 10 to 15 per cent in the next 12 months, a new report said. UBS said last week that while the market has remained resilient despite the Government's cooling efforts, it is near a tipping point. This forecast is, however, considerably more pessimistic than other experts' views, which mostly predict either stable prices or smaller falls of up to 5 per cent. But it is still less grim than estimates last December when experts said prices could correct by as much as 30 per cent on the back of that month's cooling measures. While UBS acknowledged that tight residential supply and low interest rates are keeping prices resilient, it said other factors point to a more cautious outlook over the next 12 months. For instance, Singapore's economic growth, while still recovering, is more uncertain now. The Government's residential property cooling measures are also likely to continue to discourage foreign buyers and resale market activity. The proportion of private residential homes bought by foreigners and companies has fallen from 20 per cent last year to 7 per cent in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, the population growth rate has also slowed and is likely to decline further given the recent tightening of immigration policy. And while the supply of homes is still tight, the expected ramp- up from next year onwards should help to compensate fully for the earlier supply shortage by 2014 or 2015, the report noted. UBS expects 140,000 to 150,000 homes to be completed from this year to 2015, higher than its estimated cumulative supply shortfall of 90,000 units built up from 2000 to 2011. This mix of negative factors has turned the bank sour on the property market's prospects, leading to its prediction of a 'moderate' 10 to 15 per cent correction. 'Property developers still have strong balance sheets, which may lower the probability of their having to significantly lower the prices of their residential projects to generate cash flow. 'We currently see a higher risk for mass-market private homes (versus prime ones) as this segment has largely led the current recovery, and (is likely) the bulk of private residential supply over the next few years,' the report said. Private home prices inched up 0.4 per cent in the second quarter, according to preliminary estimates, reversing a 0.1 per cent dip in the first quarter. Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui, however, disagreed with the report's estimates. Assuming no major events globally, he expects prices to move marginally, either up or down, similar to previous quarters. 'For prices to correct 10 to 15 per cent, they will have to fall about 2.5 to 4 per cent every quarter from now. This means that something serious has to happen and we should be experiencing some softening but we haven't seen that,' he added. [e-mail] Source: The Straits Times