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Global economy's ups and downs | Business Times: Wed, Apr 04 | |
| GROWTH appears to be back on track in the US economy while China and the rest of emerging Asia still retain strong momentum even if Europe has become the 'sick man'. But growth could be derailed universally if oil prices continue their upward spiral, especially if Iran is attacked. The Business Times convened its panel of economic and investment experts to assess the risks - on the upside and the downside. PANELLISTS MODERATOR Anthony Rowley: Tokyo Correspondent, The Business Times Anthony Rowley: Welcome back, to all of you. Let's start by looking at a key issue, the geo-political risk to the global economy from the Iran/Israel situation and from rising oil prices? William Thomson: This is the big one if it goes wrong. Should an attack occur the impact on the global economy would be grim. Oil could reach US$200 a barrel, creating a renewed and deeper recession, and turmoil in the Middle East would worsen. The banking crisis would deepen and some countries would finally exit the euro. Even China and the emerging world would suffer from the high oil prices and exports slow further. But I think the odds of an attack before the November elections in the US are relatively low. (President) Obama is set against an attack and the leadership of the US military is also opposed and only the powerful Israeli lobby supportive. The Israeli PM seems alone in wanting one and is using the issue to force Obama out of the White House. Kenneth Courtis: A war against Iran would surely lead to vast disruption of global energy markets. As the hawks pound harder and harder on the drums of war, markets have moved to add an increasing risk premium to the price of oil. Where the world economy is currently, and where it is headed this year, oil ought to be trading in the US$70-80/a barrel range. Instead, it is trading at US$105-110 and is poised to move still higher. That difference is the war risk premium. Should Gulf tensions not be reduced, this premium will become a major depressant for the US and the world economy. Yet, the US public is war weary and the Pentagon is war weary. The US administration does not want to participate in yet another war of problematic outcome and unknown duration. So the Obama administration will be doing all it can to dissuade Israel from starting a war with Iran. Robert Lloyd-George: If oil prices reach US$150 a barrel again as they did in the summer of 2008, there is a significant risk to growth in India, China and the developing world, as well as to Europe. We have to assume that the Israelis will not stand by and allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. The assumption is, therefore, that if they are to take action it will be in the next six months and that this could be the shock which derails the current optimism in world markets. Ernest Kepper: The world today runs on oil with China, India and other growing markets consuming oil at a faster pace than ever while worldwide production has been stagnant for much of the last decade. In today's markets, the threat of war creates the ideal backdrop for a massive speculative spike in oil to US$150 by the summer. Futures traders such as banks and hedge funds who have no intention of taking physical delivery but only of turning a paper profit, control some 80 per cent of the energy futures market, and it is this huge inflow of speculative money that creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that is driving up the price of oil. The illusion of global growth will be dissolved as oil prices rise. I expect oil to reach US$150 a barrel by year-end mostly due to low inventory positions. Israel is playing a great game but I don't expect them to attack Iran this year. I don't believe the Israelis want a war. Their biggest concern is with economic growth. However, the threat of military intervention remains a serious one. Rowley: The US economy is looking healthier and the eurozone a little less sick while China appears to be slowing. What's the 'net, net' of all this for the global economy? Courtis: I'm still looking for a pretty weak 2012 for the mature economies. This holds also for the developed commodity economies. Oil has been strong, largely due to tensions driven by increasing Israeli threats against Iran, but the rest of the energy complex is weak. Similarly, base metals, grains, cotton, livestock, lumber, steel, aluminium and copper are all lower than they were at the start of the year. Weaker natural resource prices are as good an indicator as any of the current state of the world economy. Lloyd-George: Although the immediate sense of danger from default or sovereign debt problems in Europe and the US has receded, the underlying problem is still there. The willingness of the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to continue printing money and supplying liquidity to the banking system is essential to avoiding a deflationary economic slowdown, but the question is how long this process can continue. I'm cautious about the medium-term outlook for the global economy and I believe that the trade deficit which China has just announced, together with the slowdown in its GNP growth forecast to 7.5 per cent is a clear indicator that China will eventually slow to around 5 per cent and although it will continue to import at a rapid pace, its manufacturing boom will slow. Thomson: The situation is somewhat better for the moment but still very fragile and growth will remain well below par this year. The US is showing signs of healing but true unemployment and under-employment remains sky high with the labour participation rate continuing to fall to record levels. Real median after-tax incomes continue to fall. The budgetary situation is tightening and the Fed, which otherwise might be inclined towards further monetary easing, is feeling pressure in an election year against such actions. In the absence of any external shocks, economic policy will be on hold till after the November election, after which it seems likely fiscal policy will tighten considerably and 2013 could be more challenging than this year. Kepper: The outlook for economic recovery in the US appears better than in most other regions because of the broad-based nature of the economy. For example, new oil shale and gas fields in North Dakota have grown rapidly and provided many new jobs. The success of Apple with its new products and suppliers is also an economic engine of sorts, affecting not only the US but also Asia. Employment numbers are encouraging and, in short, America can heal itself quicker than many people expected. Rowley: Certainly the US economy does seem to be on the move again. Could it regain the role of global economic locomotive? Courtis: Over the last few months, the United States has been generating some 250,000 new jobs a month, which suggests growth of around 3 per cent. Consumer spending continues to trend slightly upward, although for how long remains questionable, given that household debt levels have started rising again. America's once more expanding trade deficit also indicates a stronger economy even though higher oil prices account for part of this deterioration in the external account. At the same time, numbers for investment and production have been on the weak side, and are suggesting growth in the one per cent range. The real problem for the US comes later this year, when it will face the prospect of tax increases for high-income-earning families, and the social programme and defence spending cuts as a result of the recent debt ceiling renewal negotiations. To counter these powerful downward pressures on the economy, the US will have no choice but to engage QE3 as we move into the later part of the year. Lloyd-George: The outlook for economic recovery in the US appears better than in most other regions because of the broad-based nature of the economy. New oil shale and gas fields in North Dakota have grown rapidly and provided many new jobs and the success of Apple with its new products and suppliers is also an economic engine of sorts, affecting not only the US but Asia. Employment numbers are encouraging and, in short, America can heal itself quicker than many people expected. Kepper: With November presidential elections, I expect to see a QE3 introduced sometime in the next three months or so. The Fed cannot afford to raise interest rates as this could increase the costs of borrowing, and higher borrowing costs for US households and businesses will discourage private investment, reducing economic growth and depressing the standard of living. The US economy looks better only because Europe looks so bad. In reality, the US debt mountain is in even worse shape (than those elsewhere) and when it collapses it will fall hard. But as long as Europe's crisis worsens, the US will look like the better place to invest, which is why the US dollar is starting to rally again. It appears that investor confidence in the US is collapsing as central banks in China, Russia, Mexico and beyond have begun systematically liquidating their investments in the dollar and US Treasuries. While a US default on its debt is probably the best long-term solution to its debt problem, it is unlikely. It is equally unlikely that US will choose an option of austerity plus higher taxes in an effort to pay the debt down, which would mean cutting military spending, social security and most other government entitlements. This leaves the only other option as runaway inflation which is the easiest one because all US debts are denominated in dollars and US the controls the supply of those, allowing it to print its way out of debt. Printing money inevitably leads to inflation. Rowley: What about the eurozone. Is it really over the worst? Kepper: In truth, nothing has been solved in Europe. There may be a lull in the crisis, but it will soon return. Severe austerity measures do not create growth, so there's no way Greece can grow its way out of its debt, even after the latest debt write-downs. Austerity measures are imploding the Greek economy, causing the worst social chaos we have seen. Meanwhile, Italy, Portugal and Spain still remain vulnerable. Each and every one of them is just beginning to feel the impact of austerity, causing tensions among countries in Europe. European banks themselves don't buy any of the solutions. They show no confidence in the continent's ability to survive the crisis. Rather than lend, they are hoarding cash, and depositing hundreds of billions with Western central banks. With growth slowing sharply, there is a very real chance of a massive bear market collapse in European debt this year. I expect Greece and Portugal to exit the eurozone within 12 months. High energy prices as well as inflation are making matters worse. I fear the European oil embargo will hurt the EU more than it hurts Iran. Courtis: Large swathes of the eurozone are already in recession now, and its southern tier - Greece, Spain, Portugal, as well as Ireland - are in outright depressions. The economies of France, Italy and the UK are sputtering and even Germany has started to see increasing difficulties. The combination of a weak euro and (sterling) pound plus high and still rising oil prices is now adding further to downward pressures across the EU economic area. So don't hold your breath for a upside surprise in EU economic performance. The risk is on the downside. Lloyd-George: It is difficult to see how Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland can grow their way out of their debt problems. On the other hand, Germany has had tremendous success in exporting its quality automobiles and other products to new markets to China, the Middle East and beyond. It is, therefore, perhaps easier to predict a 'two speed' Europe in terms of economic growth. Thomson: Growth in Europe is absent except in the Germanic core. Fortunately the new leader of the ECB Mario Draghi has been more creative than his predecessor. But the social situation is extremely fragile in the 'Club Med' countries with unemployment at depression levels and youth unemployment at over 50 per cent in some. We also have to see how repercussions from the Greek default feed through the banking system. I still expect an eventual Greek exit from the euro but I believe the authorities have had sufficient time to prepare and avoid another post-Lehman systemic crisis. Still, it could be a close call and go either way. Rowley: How serious is the slowdown in China, and what about the rest of Asia? Courtis: The (current) situation places enormous importance on what happens in the key emerging BRIC economic giants - Brazil, India, Indonesia and China. The four of them, together with other emerging markets, will make up virtually 80 per cent of the net real growth in the world economy in 2012. China, of course, is the key as it alone will account directly for half of that growth; half of the remainder will be related to China through the continuing surge of Chinese imports. Virtually every country in Asia enjoys a strong trade surplus with China. On top of that, China has become the leading foreign direct investor in emerging markets. China's economy has run ahead at a blistering speed since early last decade, with neither a substantial pause nor broad reform and inevitably significant imbalances have developed. The drop in consumer income and household consumption relative to GDP, the tightening grip on the economy of large state company monopolies, increasingly stretched local government finances, regional disparities, labour skills, runaway residential real estate prices, issues of price stability, are all part of the result. The government imposed a strong policy squeeze, which has had the effect of moderating growth back to the 8 per cent level, reducing the consumer inflation rate and of putting a lid on residential real estate prices. The squeeze peaked late last year and between now and mid-summer I expect to see a good portion of it reversed. The result will be an accelerating Chinese economy over the end of the year. The problem for China is not so much growth in the short term but the increasingly urgent need to re-engage very substantial supply side reforms. If it does not do so, the result will be that it will become difficult to keep the economy on a stable course. Kepper: I think the biggest impact on China's economy this year is that it's in a year of political transition, and we can expect it to be aggressive and stimulate the economy. The currency is currently strengthening, exports are decreasing but we can expect the currency to stabilise and we can also expect growth targets of 7.5 per cent to be met with a surprise on the upside. However, in the short run, China's GDP growth will likely continue to fall. GDP growth will most likely be balanced by growth-model changes to support consumers. China will move away from state-owned enterprises which require massive capital investment and export subsidies to companies that operate in the red or on wafer-thin margins. These reforms will, in turn, eliminate the need to recycle surpluses and keep buying US Treasuries in order to keep the currency suppressed, because a stronger yuan will increase consumer wealth relatively, making the transition to a new model more efficient, i.e. benefiting importers at the expense of exporters. Asian-block nations have suppressed the value of their currencies over the last several years, thanks to China's currency suppression and growth model. So they will be relieved if China signals that it is serious about making a transition that empowers its consumers. Thus, China's change in its growth model will likely be reinforced strongly across the region. Stronger Asian consumer demand and stronger Asian currencies mean that Western consumer goods will flow more freely to Asia and the US and European trade balance could improve. However, this scenario could be disturbed by contagion to emerging markets from the European debt crisis, a financial crisis in China as debt grows to dangerous levels and unrest is met with more internal crackdowns, or if the US remains mired in a never-ending-war policy and does little to improve its fiscal deficits. Source: Business Times（香港） (2012-04-04) 香港文匯網報道，據人民日報海外版4月4日報道，美聯儲主席伯南克日前暗示，盡管美國經濟狀況有所改善，但是麵臨就業、樓市等 挑戰，美國將不排除啟動第三輪量化寬鬆政策。此番表態一出，立即引發全球各大經濟體的廣泛關注。央行行長周小川對此表示，美國在實行貨幣寬鬆政策以重振經 濟和增加就業時，要采取負責任的態度。 第三輪量化寬鬆為時不遠 作為全球最大經濟體的央行掌門人，伯南克每一次發言都會被市場解讀為美國經濟政策的風向標，而一向口風甚嚴的伯南克近日卻頻頻暗示或將 推出QE3(第三輪量化寬鬆政策)。繼3月26日公開表示，如要創造足夠就業機會、進一步緩和失業問題，可能得要生產連同消費者與企業需求更迅速地擴張， 這個過程可由持續性的寬鬆政策支撐，3月27日，伯南克在接受美國廣播公司采訪時再次強調，現在宣稱複蘇取得勝利為時過早，基於當前美國經濟形勢，美聯儲 不排除任何進一步支持經濟的可能性。 分析人士認為，伯南克的一係列言論被市場解讀為第三輪量化寬鬆可能為時不遠了。 即將公布的3月份美國經濟數據則對是否實施新一輪量化寬鬆政策更為關鍵。高盛經濟學家Tilton認為，美聯儲仍有可能在4月底召開的貨幣政策會議上宣布寬鬆措施。 「從伯南克的理論邏輯判斷，推出QE3的預期大幅增加。」清華大學中國與世界經濟研究中心研究員袁鋼明認為，在政策動向上，美聯儲將低 利率時間延長到2014年，美國國債繼續承壓並第二次提高國債上限等，在很大程度上都要靠寬鬆的貨幣來支持;再加上美國經濟增長預期調低，使得總體上美國 對自己經濟信心下降。此外，歐債危機難以化解，因此，美國最有效的辦法還是量化寬鬆。 開動印鈔機輸出通脹 對於美國或將實施新一輪量化寬鬆政策，周小川強調，美國須擔負起更多責任，不僅要考慮其經濟自身的需要，還應考慮對全球經濟的影響。他 表示，美聯儲並不是一個簡單的中央銀行，它和其他許多銀行不一樣，因為美聯儲他們是創造了美元，而美元是世界上的儲備貨幣，在世界經濟中得到了廣泛的使 用。美國的量化寬鬆勢必會使資金流向其他新興經濟體，從而使得這些國家控製通脹難度加大。 事實上，量化寬鬆貨幣政策的實質是向市場注入超額資金，旨在降低市場利率，刺激經濟增長。美元是當今世界的核心貨幣，但是發行權卻掌握 在美國手中，美聯儲可以不受任何約束無限製發行美元。尤其是金融危機爆發後，美國加大馬力開動印鈔機，連續推出兩輪量化寬鬆政策，將過多的美元輸出到全世 界，將美元貶值的壓力不斷轉嫁給其他國家，尤其是中國等新興經濟體。 量化寬鬆在引起美元貶值的同時，還會引起人民幣持續升值，進而對中國的就業、出口等將產生更多不利影響。此外，還將會進一步推高原油等 大宗商品的價格，進而對中國造成輸入型通脹壓力。實際上，2009年美國實行量化寬鬆政策就導致黃金價格屢創新高，石油、鐵礦石、糧食等大宗商品價格漲幅 超過20%。 「中國需要防止美國第三輪量化寬鬆政策帶來的熱錢湧入和通脹壓力。」清華大學中國與世界經濟研究中心主任李稻葵表示，量化寬鬆政策對全球流動性而言，其推出一定會持續地推高全球資產價格。 變相逃債轉嫁危機 為什麽在歐債危機愈演愈烈之時，美國卻沒有發生歐洲那樣嚴重的債務危機?「其中一個重要原因，是美國一直采取通貨膨脹和美元貶值『變相 違約』方式，從而轉嫁了美國債務危機風險。」成都大學副校長張其佐認為，采用美元貶值和通貨膨脹變相違約，早已是美國減債減赤轉嫁風險的隱蔽做法。而對全 球投資者來說，最終和最大的風險也正在於此。 事實上，對於借債成癮的美國來說，量化寬鬆的最大作用就是通過貨幣貶值和輸出通脹化解債務，處理美國的經濟負債，也就是先將「私人債務國家化」，然後將「國家債務國際化」。 「世界很可能已經進入一個中央銀行印鈔票時代。」中國社會科學院學部委員餘永定表示，由於歐洲國家，美國還有其他的一些國家，不能夠在 政治上、經濟上采取一種通過勒緊褲腰帶搞發明創造來還債的決心、意誌和能力。他們想通過印鈔票的方法，通過通貨膨脹的方法，把他們的債務「脹」沒。 餘永定表示，中國是世界上最大的債權人，我們不得不擔心，美國進行貨幣貶值的最大的受害者就是債權人。在這個情況下，中國必須要加快自己的調整速度，加快經濟調整，轉變經濟增長方式，不要再進一步陷入各種各樣的陷阱。 | ||
