市建局援引研究報告：投資鞋盒公寓要三思

(2012-04-19)

華京京　報道 [e-mail] 　　市區重建局表示，本地鞋盒公寓的數量將在2015年底達到8200個單位。多家機構的研究報告都提醒想要投資的公眾，在決定購買鞋盒公寓前要三思而後行。 　　根據當局的數據，截至去年底本地市場上共有2400個鞋盒公寓，其中1000個位於高檔地區（CCR）、1000個位於中檔地區（RCR）、400個位於大眾化地區（OCR）。 三年後數量達8200單位 　　市建局預期鞋盒公寓的數量會持續增加，在今年達到4100個，明年達到5400個，後年達到6800個，並在2015年達到8200個，其中有2100個會在高檔地區、3900個在中檔地區、2200個在大眾化地區。 　　當局援引野村證券（Nomura）、花旗集團（Citi）和法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）的研究報告指出，私宅市場的強勁需求是被鞋盒公寓的購買所推動，而其中許多買家都是為了投資，不是為了自己居住。 　　這些報告指出，隨著鞋盒公寓的供應越來越多，這些投資型買家在尋找租戶時所麵對的競爭也將提高，所以在決定購買前有必要仔細考慮租金回報率究竟能有多高。同時，若貸款利率走高，這類買家必將大受影響。 　　野村證券分析過去兩年完成的私宅項目後指出，鞋盒公寓的租金需求表現並不穩定，有些項目如Parc Imperial和Zedge固然租賃需求不錯，但Kembangan Suites、Heritage East等卻相對難以出租。 　　“明年又將有一大批新竣工的鞋盒公寓湧入市場，如果市場的租賃需求沒有顯著上升，其中很多單位恐怕都會麵對出租困難的局麵。” 　　野村證券強調，大眾和中檔地區的鞋盒公寓目前有超過半數是被組屋居住者買來投資。這些買家如果租不出去，而又遭遇貸款利率上揚，勢必對他們造成很大的經濟負擔。 　　巴黎銀行也對鞋盒公寓的投資需求日益增加感到擔憂，並認為鞋盒公寓的租賃市場依然有待接受考驗，特別是在政府收緊移民政策的前提下。 　　“在未來需求不穩定的情況下，我們認為市場可能在明年下半年就會感受到供過於求的痛楚，包括租金疲軟、購買氣氛低迷等。” 　　巴黎銀行指出，低至穀底的貸款利率外加較高的流動性使得市場的購買氣氛熱烈，但如果貸款利率上調，後果將十分嚴重，會對購屋能力和需求都造成顯著影響。

聯合早報》 （編輯：王秘） Thursday, Apr 19, 2012 AsiaOne Oversupply of shoebox flats could cool demand, reduce rents: Experts Investors buying shoebox apartments hoping for capital gains and good rental returns may be driving up demand in the overall private property market, property analysts warned. The Straits Times reported that analysts at major research firms cautioned investors about such purchases even though the price tags look tempting. Thousands of these shoebox apartments, usually 500 sq ft or smaller, are set to flood the market in the next year or so, analysts said. This could mean problem getting a tenant or a good resale price for those who purchased these apartments. Most buyers of these units tended to be investors, rather than occupiers, who lived in Housing Board flats. According to the English daily, a report by BNP Paribas Group said there has been a spike in private units purchased by Housing Board dwellers since 2008. These purchases are believed to be not for owner occupation. A research report by Nomura Group said the number of completed shoebox units could triple in 2013. The report also said that most of the units scheduled for completion are mass and mid-market projects, and that more than half of these units were purchased by Housing Board dwellers. Those who bought the units hoping for rental returns may also see their hopes dashed - different developments have seen different levels of rental demand. Tighter immigration rules could also mean difficulty finding tenants for these shoebox units. All these factors could lead to an oversupply of units, resulting in lower rents and buyer sentiments. HDB dwellers who bought the shoebox units could further be affected, as they have less holding power to fund their shoebox unit purchases. [e-mail]  Shoebox flats rake in higher rental yields Straits Times: Fri, Apr 20 TINY 'shoebox' homes here are raking in much higher rental yields for investors than other apartment types but experts warn the good times might not last. Data from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) found that gross yields for shoebox apartments were 5.4 per cent in the first three months of the year. This is well above the 2.5 to 3.5 per cent yields that residential properties typically return to investors. The SRX shoebox yield was based on the average rent of $6.51 per sq ft (psf) per month for the 197 leasing deals inked in the period. The average unit price of the 123 shoebox homes sold then was $1,450 psf. Typically, rental yield is calculated by dividing the rental sum received over 12 months into the cost of the unit. But SRX calculated the yield by dividing the average psf rent over 12 months by the average psf price of units sold in the first quarter. Shoebox units are typically 500 sq ft or smaller and can be found in projects like Parc Imperial, Thomson V One and Prestige Heights. A total of 42 shoebox units at Prestige Heights have been rented out since the start of the year, SRX's data showed. They enjoyed average rents of $6.89 psf per month with yields at 4.9 per cent. Just last month, a 409 sq ft unit at the Balestier Road project was leased for $2,850 while another 420 sq ft apartment secured a tenant at $2,700 a month in February. There were 16 leases signed for shoebox units at Heritage East in East Coast Road, with average rents of $6.30 psf and yields of about 5.1 per cent. SRX collates and displays transactions by the major property agencies, accounting for more than 80 per cent of resale transactions in the market. Experts say investors have flocked to the shoebox segment in droves, attracted by the affordable prices - typically less than $1 million. In fact, about one in seven buyers picked up new homes 500 sq ft and smaller last year, according to R'ST Research. And the climbing yields seem to be the main driver pulling investors in. Yields of these tiny apartments have climbed from 4.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 to 5.4 per cent in the first quarter this year. This is more than double the rental yield of 2.4 per cent in the luxury segment, according to analysis by Citi Investment Research. It also dwarfs the 3.6 per cent yield in the mid-end segment and 4.1 per cent yield for mass market homes. But these high yields are not expected to last as an increasing supply of completed shoebox homes enters the market. The number of these small homes is expected to double from about 4,100 units later this year to 8,200 units by the end of 2015. Experts note that many of the completed shoebox apartments are in good locations such as in the city fringe area and River Valley area and are thus commanding decent rentals now. Many of the upcoming units, however, are in suburban areas, which might not be able to support similar rent levels. Mr Tan Kok Keong, OrangeTee's research and consultancy head, said that while a dip in prices of shoebox flats could cause yields to rise temporarily, yields are likely to trend towards the norm of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent in the long run as supply picks up. He expects the yield gap between shoebox units and typical residential yields to narrow to between 0.5 and 1 per cent from 2014 onwards. [e-mail] Source: The Straits Times