私宅價格「力不從心」

（2012-01-04）

● 李敏雯

　　新加坡私宅價格漲幅進一步收窄。市區重建局昨天出爐的預估數據顯示私宅價格指數去年第四季度僅微升0.2％。

　　這意味著私宅價格的全年漲幅已從2010年的17.6％，明顯降至5.9％。這個全年漲幅甚至還不如轉售組屋在2011年取得的10.7％漲幅。

　　昨天出爐的私宅價格指數顯示，政府過去三年來五次推出的降溫措施已使私宅價格漲幅放緩。去年第四季度的漲幅是自2009年第二季度房價見底以來，最微小的季度漲幅。這也比前個季度的1.3％漲幅來得小。

　　從2009年第四季度開始，私宅價格漲幅已經連續九個季度收窄。

完整數據月底出爐

　　在非有地私宅領域中，代表大眾化私宅的中央區以外，仍然是第四季度漲幅最顯著的領域，上升了0.6％，但明顯少於第三季度的2.1％。其次是代表高檔私宅的核心中央區，漲幅僅為0.5％；代表中檔私宅的其他中央區則價格持平，價格指數沒有改變。

　　這些數據來自第四季度首10個星期的新私宅和轉售市場的成交價格。完整數據將在本月底出爐。

　　就去年全年而言，大眾化私宅領域仍然表現最亮麗。根據預估數據，中央區以外全年漲幅達到7.7％；代表中檔私宅的其他中央區漲幅則為4.4％；代表高檔私宅的核心中央區則漲得最少，全年僅為4％。

漲幅放緩因素

        高力國際（Colliers）研究與谘詢部主管謝岫君受訪時指出，目前的價位分別比2008年第二季度和1996年第二季度的兩個房地產巔峰水平高出16.2％和13.7％。

　　她指出，一些促使價格漲幅放緩的因素包括2011年1月推出的第四輪降溫措施，如業主在購買後的四年內出售私宅，將被抽取4％至16％的賣方印花稅；政府大舉推出官地供應；經濟展望不確定；以及買家對私宅價格更為敏感，購房也變得更謹慎。

　　第一太平戴維斯（Savills）研究與谘詢部副董事張敏璋則指出，去年第四季度0.2％的漲幅，明顯低於他之前預測的1.6％。他因此把今年首季度和次季度的私宅價格指數漲幅預測，分別降低至0.6％和0.1％。

　　張敏璋甚至認為本月底出爐的私宅價格完整數據，就可能持平或稍微下滑。

　　世邦魏理仕（CBRE）執行董事李曉和相信私宅價格已經回穩。

　　“私宅價格去年的漲幅主要得到大眾化私宅的支持。中央區以外的私宅銷量占了全年大約1萬6000間新私宅銷量近三分之二。”

　 　今年全年賣得最理想的大眾化私宅項目是A Treasure Trove（每平方英尺中位數尺價為915元）、勿洛馨居（每平方英尺中位數尺價為1359元）、Eight Courtyards（每平方英尺中位數尺價為800元）和優和苑（euHabitat）（每平方英尺中位數尺價為1050元）。

　　展望未來，李曉和認為本地私宅的市場需求將減少15％至20％。因為一些需求可能由執行共管公寓（Executive Condominium，簡稱EC）吸納。

　　他預測豪華公寓的價格將在2012年下跌10％至15％，大眾化私宅的跌幅將介於5％至10％之間。

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分析員：經濟增長停滯時房地產降溫措施或調整

（2012-01-04）

李敏雯　報道

 對於新出台的降溫措施是否會成為永久性的公共政策，市場人士看法出現兩極化。有些認為這一輪新措施今年內就有放寬的空間，另一些則相信新措施與去年5月大選後，政府表示要更加體恤公民的公共政策是一致的，因此不會撤銷。

　　今年經濟前景不明朗，對於政府對房地產市場實行新一輪降溫措施，向買家征收額外買方印花稅的做法，有房地產分析員認為可能在經濟增長停滯時加以調整。

　　對於新出台的降溫措施是否會成為永久性的公共政策，市場人士看法出現兩極化。有些認為這一輪新措施今年內就有放寬的空間，另一些則相信新措施與去年5月大選後，政府表示要更加體恤公民的公共政策是一致的，因此不會撤銷。

　　針對新降溫措施是否有調整空間，國家發展部受詢時說：“由於額外買方印花稅（Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty，簡稱ABSD）剛開始實施，政府仍然在密切關注降溫措施（對市場）所產生的影響。”

　　國家發展部答複本報詢問時指出，自從征收額外買方印花稅的新措施在上個月宣布以來，當局已接獲一些公眾的意見，表示能理解政府實行新降溫措施的理由，並對新措施為促進一個穩定與可持續的房地產市場的目標表示支持。

　　不過，也有外國買家感到被這項新措施所歧視而頗有微言。韓國人李鎬敬（42歲，中介）接受本報訪問時，對新加坡政府向外國買家抽取更高的印花稅感到不滿。

　　她說：“我覺得新加坡政府應該一視同仁，在本地工作的外籍人士一樣繳付個人所得稅，因此不應該懲罰那些想買房自住的外籍人士。”

　　此外，受外籍人士歡迎的討論區如Singapore Expats Forum，也針對額外買方印花稅展開熱烈討論。

　　一名署名SundayMorningStaple的網友，就把額外買方印花稅的簡稱ABSD和“荒謬”（Absurd）劃上等號。

他說：“我希望世界上其他國家也仿效新加坡，讓新加坡人在海外買房子投資時，受到同樣的對待。”

　　國家發展部在答複中重申額外買方印花稅是一個經過精細調準（calibrated）的措施，目的是緩和來自本地人和外國人的投資需求，以避免將來可能出現更嚴重的價格調整。

　　賓夕法尼亞大學沃頓商學院房地產係教授瓦克泰（Susan Wachter）上月接受本報訪問時，就肯定了新加坡政府的做法。她認為新加坡政府向外國買家征收10％額外買方印花稅，以遏止熱錢過快流入，相信能有效避免資產泡沫形成。

　　政府上月初宣布的最新一輪房地產市場降溫措施，集中火力針對外國和永久居民買家的需求。外國買家須繳付相等於房產售價或估價10％的額外買方印花稅，而購買第二套或更多住宅的永久居民，則加抽3％的額外買方印花稅。現有買方印花稅約3％。

　　昨天剛出爐的私宅價格預估數據也顯示私宅價格已經回穩。戴德梁行（DTZ）亞太研究部主管蔡楚芬說，由於政府在去年12月剛推出了額外買方印花稅，加上經濟增長下來將放緩，她預料今年的私宅價格將下滑，而高檔私宅的下跌幅度將超越大眾化私宅。

　　她說：“若本地發展商無法承擔額外買方印花稅，外國買家可能會到其他國家買房，或者購買較小的私宅，將支出保持在原有預算之內。”

　　智信研究與谘詢（R’ST Research）總監王伽勝指出，今年上半年的私宅價格預計跌幅會達到8％。昨天出爐的第四季度數據，可能是這一輪房地產周期最後一次出現漲幅。隨著買家退場，私宅價格調整最可能在今年下半年出現。

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Home prices sputter, poised to fall this year

Business Times: Wed, Jan 04

(SINGAPORE) Prices of both private homes as well as HDB resale flats are poised to fall this year. This was foreshadowed in the official flash estimates for the fourth quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in growth for both segments. Urban Redevelopment Authority's private residential property price index rose a mere 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2011, its most anaemic growth in 10 quarters since the index bottomed out in Q2 2009. From the 15.8 per cent q-on-q increase in Q3 2009, the index has now moderated for nine consecutive quarters, according to CBRE's analysis. The 0.2 per cent q-on-q hike in Q4 was lower than the 1.3 per cent q-on-q rise for Q3 last year. For the whole of 2011, the index rose 5.9 per cent - a marked slowdown from the 17.6 per cent jump in 2010. Most market watchers say it is a given that prices will go down this year, amid the weaker economic outlook and poorer sentiment, especially after the introduction of the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) last month. 'Developers know they need to cut prices but the difficulty is in gauging how much. If they don't cut enough, buyers are not going to act. But if they give too much, there's always a fear that buyers will expect a bit more. What you want to do is to give enough for the fence sitters to come back into the market. Despite the weaker economic outlook, there's still a lot of cash and liquidity in the market,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng. DTZ's head of Asia Pacific research Chua Chor Hoon predicts a 10-15 per cent drop in URA's overall private home price index in 2012 citing the ABSD which took effect on Dec 8 and the economic slowdown. The luxury housing segment, where there are more foreign buyers, is expected to take the biggest hit given the top ABSD rate of 10 per cent levied on their residential property purchases. CRBE executive director Li Hiaw Ho expects overall demand for new private homes to be trimmed by 15-20 per cent this year. 'Prices of luxury/prime condos may fall by 10-15 per cent in 2012, and mass-market condos, by 5-10 per cent,' he added. URA's flash estimates show that the price index for non-landed private homes in Outside Central Region (OCR) - where mass-market condo projects are located - was the star performer, though it has also dimmed somewhat. It rose 0.6 per cent q-on-q in Q4 last year, a slower rise than the 2.1 per cent increase in Q3 2011. The full-year 2011 increase of 7.7 per cent was also slower than the 15 per cent climb in 2010. Prices of non-landed private homes in OCR increased the fastest as demand was supported by HDB upgraders as well as investors, notes DTZ's Ms Chua. Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui notes: 'The strong run in the OCR market has led to their current (Q4 2011) prices being 28.3 per cent above their pre global financial crisis peak in 2008, while prices in Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) are only 6 per cent and 15.9 per cent higher than their respective 2008 peaks.' The price index for non-landed homes in CCR - which includes the traditional prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove - appreciated 0.5 per cent q-on-q in Q4, following a 0.7 per cent gain in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 4 per cent, significantly lower than the 14.2 per cent rise in 2010. The index for RCR for Q4 was unchanged from the preceding quarter, taking the full-year appreciation to 4.4 per cent, after rising 17.6 per cent in 2010. In the public housing segment, HDB's resale flat price index rose just 1.7 per cent q-on-q in Q4, after rising 3.8 per cent in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 10.7 per cent, slower than 2010's 14.1 per cent climb. The ramp-up in supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats launched by HDB last year as well as the increase in buyers' monthly household income ceiling from $8,000 to $10,000 has led to more first-time home buyers switching to BTO flats from the resale market, say agents. ERA's key executive officer Eugene Lim says that cash over valuations (COVs) stabilised at around $30,000-40,000 in Q4, based on transactions handled by ERA. 'Going by what happened in the last recession, flats were sold at or below valuation. If Singapore enters a recession this year, COVs may also turn negative and hence transacted prices also fall.' He predicts HDB's resale flat price index may ease 5-8 per cent for the whole of 2012 in such a scenario. The drop will be more severe if the HDB proceeds to allot a higher proportion of new Build-To-Order (BTO) flats to second timer buyers, as this leads to further diversion of demand from the HDB resale market. However, if Singapore escapes recession, the HDB resale flat price index should still increase by up to 5 per cent this year, even if the government sets aside more new flats to second timers, he added. PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail forecasts a correction of up to 3 per cent in the index. Dennis Wee Group senior manager Lee Sze Teck reckons it could ease up to 5 per cent. HDB will launch 3,890 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines this month. Source: Business Times

Public and private home prices moderating

Posted by luxuryasiahome ⋅ January 3, 2012 ⋅

Home prices in Singapore are showing signs of moderating. Flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority and Housing and Development Board (HDB) for the last quarter of 2011 saw prices increasing at a slower rate.

Prices of resale flats grew by 1.7 per cent, compared to the 3.8 per cent growth seen in the third quarter. This brings the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) – which provides information on the general price movements in the public residential market – to 190.4.

Meanwhile, private home prices rose by a marginal 0.2 per cent, down from the 1.3 per cent rise in the third quarter. The Private Residential Property Price Index stood at 206.2 at the end of the fourth quarter.

Market watchers said the softening in prices was expected.

The figures confirmed what the market had been expecting – a moderation in home prices following a year of policy tweaks by the government to cool the red-hot property market.

The price increase of resale flats slowed sharply in the last three months of 2011, following two straight quarters of more than 3 per cent growth.

Market watchers said home buyers are more cautious in light of the uncertain economic outlook.

And the ramped up supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats will continue to draw first-time home buyers away from the resale market.

In light of these two factors, some analysts expect HDB resale prices to correct by up to three per cent this year.

Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Realty, said: “The success rate (for BTO applicants) is higher now, it is a lot better. In fact, any first timer that applies for a flat is almost certain of getting it. So with this improved success ratio, more and more buyers are crossing over to the BTO market and that translates into lower demand in the resale market.”

In 2011, HDB offered some 28,000 flats – 25,000 under the BTO system and some 3,000 units under the Sale of Balance Flats exercise.

For 2012, home buyers can look forward to 25,000 BTO flats.

HDB said “these projects will have a good geographical spread in the various towns”.

It will offer nearly 3,900 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines in January.

Property firms said the cash premium that is paid upfront, also known as cash-over-valuation (COV), is showing signs of softening, dropping about S$5,000 to S$8,000 in the last quarter of 2011.

Experts said that COV is likely to continue dropping amidst the various housing policies, until it bottoms out at around S$20,000 to S$30,000. Short of an economic downturn, COV is unlikely to hit zero, as there remains a constant demand from PRs, downgraders and singles.

But market watchers point out that buyers now have more bargaining power.

Mohd Ismail, CEO of PropNex, elaborated: “In areas where the prices are very high, for example, in central locations, where the houses are valued currently at S$600,000, S$700,000. And these houses are on the low floor – assuming on the second floor – and they may also be affected by ethnic ratios.

“When such houses are put in the market, you don’t even get a buyer at zero cash-over-valuation. Therefore, if you ask, ‘are there possibilities of picking houses today without paying any cash?’ Yes, there are. But they may not have the best of the panoramic view and so on.”

In the private housing market, prices too have taken a hit following the slew of cooling measures. The rate of increase has continued to moderate for the ninth straight quarter, leading some to believe that the market is at a turning point.

Nicholas Mak, executive director of research and consultancy at SLP International, said: “The market prices are actually teetering on the edge of a decline and what it really needs is a factor, something to push it over the edge, and this could come in the form of macroeconomic factors such as an economic slowdown or some impending crisis.”

Private home prices are now at an all-time high, at 16 per cent above the previous price peak in 2008.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 3 Jan 2012

	Private home prices may have peaked	Straits Times: Wed, Jan 04
	PRIVATE home prices, which have been defying gravity for the past two years, finally seem to be close to their turning point, inching up by just a smidgen in the three months to December. Flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday showed prices rising just 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter last year, down from a 1.3 per cent gain the quarter before. Experts note that while this brings home prices to a new high, it is the smallest quarterly growth since the market bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009 and could signal that the market has peaked or is close to doing so. A series of market cooling measures since September 2009 - most recently last month - global economic uncertainties and a boost in housing supply have provided a check on prices, they add. They say a price correction could show up as early as the first quarter's URA price index. PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail expects prices to soften further, dipping by 3 per cent to 4 per cent this year. He said it is 'very likely' that prices might fall by less than 1 per cent by the first quarter although the bulk of the expected correction will take place in the second half of the year. Developers are also expected to be more cautious about buying land, given the abundant upcoming supply with reduced participation and bid prices likely, said Ms Chia Siew Chuin, Colliers International's director of research and advisory. These will be catalysts for price declines. DTZ's head of Asia-Pacific research Chua Chor Hoon noted that the luxury segment, which has the largest share of foreigners, is likely to see a greater fall than the mass and mid-market segments. Mr Ong Teck Hui, head of research and consultancy at Credo Real Estate, said depending on how the economy plays out and how the housing market performs after Chinese New Year, the price index for the three months to March could show either marginal growth or a mild correction. Demand for new private homes could also be trimmed by up to 20 per cent, as some of the demand could be siphoned away by executive condos (EC), said Mr Li Hiaw Ho, executive director of CBRE Research. Executive condos are a hybrid of public and private housing. The Government had earlier said that it is ready to supply sites for up to 5,000 EC units through its land sales programme this year. 'Prices of luxury and prime residential properties may fall by 10 per cent to 15 per cent in 2012, and mass market homes by 5 per cent to 10 per cent,' he added. 'Separately, landed home prices will likely see a smaller correction of less than 5 per cent since foreigners are generally not allowed to buy and supply is limited.' Overall, home prices increased 5.9 per cent last year, well below the 17.6 per cent growth in 2010 as the Government rolled out five rounds of cooling measures, the latest on Dec 8. But as with the previous quarter, non-landed suburban homes continued to post the biggest price gain. They rose 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, but this was well down from a 2.1 per cent jump in the three months before. ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim said that this could be due to healthy sales at projects like Bedok Residences and The Palette in Pasir Ris. There was no change in city fringe home prices which grew 1.2 per cent previously, while city centre home prices were up 0.5 per cent, down from 0.7 per cent before. ERA's Mr Lim said the increase in city centre prices might be due to sales at The Scotts Tower and Scotts Square while city fringe prices remained flat due to a lack of large-scale project launches. Experts point out that the flash estimates are compiled based on transactions during the first 10 weeks of the quarter, with the Dec 8 cooling measures - which include an additional buyer's stamp duty of 10 per cent for all foreigner home purchases - unlikely to have made an impact on the figures yet. The URA also cautioned that past data has shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and actual price changes - updated about four weeks later when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects is captured - could be significant when the change is small. Source: The Straits Times