私宅價格增幅連續九個季度放緩

 

韓寶鎮 (2012-01-28)

 　　我國私宅價格增幅連續九個季度放緩，去年第四季隻微增0.2％，比前一個季度的1.3％來得低，成為自2009年第三季以來最小的增長率。去年全年私宅價格隻增長5.9％，比前年的17.6％明顯低了許多。

　　市區重建局昨天發布去年第四季和全年的房地產數據。多數分析師認為這顯示我國私宅價格在去年第四季已經見頂，但也有分析師認為數據指向私宅價格會在今年見頂。

　　此外，不論是同比或環比，去年各類型私宅的價格都取得更低的增長率。去年第四季高檔地區（核心中央區，簡稱CCR）的非有地住宅的價 格，增長了0.5％，而前一季是0.7％。中檔地區（其他中央區，簡稱RCR）和大眾化地區（中央區以外，簡稱OCR）則分別增長0.1％和0.6％，比 前一季的分別1.2％和2.1％來得低。

　　全年來說，高檔、中檔和大眾化地區的非有地住宅價格分別增長4％、4.5％和7.7％，比前年14.2％、17.6％和15％低許多。

　　供應量方麵，未來項目供應的未完成私宅單位共有7萬7089個，是有紀錄以來最高的一次，比第三季的7萬6255個單位要多一些。截至第四季，未來供應當中有3萬9184個單位還未售出。

　　發展商在去年第四季總共推出4105個未完成的私宅單位供銷售。去年一整年，發展商總共推出1萬7710個未完成的私宅單位供銷售，而前年則是1萬6575個。

　　去年全年，發展商總共售出1萬5472個未完成單位和432個完成單位；前年售出的未完成單位和完成單位則分別是1萬5832個和460個。

售賣EC去年創新高

　　至於執行共管公寓（Executive Condominium，簡稱EC）的總數目，截至去年第四季，仍然保持在1萬零430個單位。未來單位有6058個。此外，另有2900個單位可能來自今年上半年政府售地計劃發放的EC地段。

　　發展商售賣的EC在2011年創下2883個單位的新高，2010年隻售出1052個單位。

　　世邦魏理仕（CBRE）私宅部執行董事陳金道指出，由於假期和政府宣布加抽額外買方印花稅（additional buyer’s stamp duty，簡稱ABSD），新私宅銷量在去年第四季放緩。

　　齊樂行研究與谘詢部門主管王德輝認為房價可能已經見頂或者接近見頂。由於ABSD和經濟放緩影響需求，房價將難以恢複衝勁。持續的房屋供應和賣主之間的競爭，也將使房價不會高漲。

　　德偉（DWG）產業谘詢與研究高級經理李思德則認為房價已經在去年第四季見頂。不過，他認為房價增長放緩的導因不能全算在ABSD頭上，因為ABSD是在去年12月初才推出的。市場情緒在去年第四季開始受不利的環球經濟局勢影響，買家轉而采取觀望態度。

　　展望方麵，陳金道認為市場逐漸轉為謹慎。雖然大眾化私宅市場保持良好，但將不會看到跟去年一樣水平的購買率。那些有地點優勢和創新特點 的公寓仍賣得不錯，就像最近推出的The Hillier和“水之都”（Watertown）一樣。對於新私宅的需求預料下降1萬3000個至1萬4000個單位。

　　欣樂國際（SLP）執行董事麥俊榮認為，下降的價格增長和租金增長指向私宅價格將在今年見頂，而隨著去年第四季半獨立式洋房價格和租金下跌，其他類型的私宅價格可能也會跟著下滑。

　　房地產經紀公司博納（PropNex）預測，隨著額外買方印花稅的推出，私宅價格在下來這一季預料出現負增長。2012年將有更多執行共管公寓推出，博納集團總裁伊斯邁預測，大眾化私宅價格將穩定下來。由於預見有更大供應量，私宅價格今年將下滑5％。

《聯合早報》

Private property prices and rentals at standstill

	Business Times: Sat, Jan 28
PRICE rises for private homes almost ground to a halt last quarter while rental increases also tapered off. The latest official data has sparked a discussion in property circles on whether the market has peaked. Most observers say that either the peak has already been touched, or will be touched very soon. The Urban Redevelopment Authority's benchmark private home price index inched up just 0.2 per cent quarter on quarter (q-o-q) in Q4 last year, its ninth consecutive quarter of moderation. For the full year, the index's 5.9 per cent rise was a third of the 17.6 per cent gain registered in 2010. The figures were identical to flash estimates released on Jan 3. And for the first time since Q3 2009, the increase in URA's landed property sub-index was lower than that for the non-landed property sub-index. The landed sub-index rose just 0.1 per cent q-o-q in Q4 2011, compared with 0.3 per cent for the non-landed sub-index. In fact, for semi-detached houses, the price index actually fell 0.6 per cent q-o-q in Q4. 'In that quarter, prices of semi-detached houses in the east fell 1.6 per cent while those in the north-east softened by 1.3 per cent. This shows that some segments of the landed market are facing stronger price resistance,' says Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui. 'However, landed prices have risen 80 per cent from the market trough in Q2 2009, outperforming the 48 per cent increase for non-landed for the same period.' URA's overall rental index for private homes rose 0.4 per cent q-o-q in Q4, or half the 0.8 per cent rise it had posted in Q3. Full year 2011, the index was up 3.8 per cent - a fraction of the 17.9 per cent gain it had put on in 2010. The outlook for private home prices looks bleak. CBRE predicts a price drop of 5-15 per cent this year, with luxury/prime properties taking the bigger hit and mass-market homes being the least affected. Credo's Mr Ong says: 'It's difficult for prices to regain momentum as the recently imposed ABSD (additional buyer's stamp duty) and the economic slowdown could ease demand. Sustained supply and competition among sellers will also keep a lid on prices.' Giving a different take, Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong said: 'We still believe it's difficult to conclude if we've reached an inflexion point, if any at all.' Mr Cheong cites the oligopolistic nature of the Singapore residential property market, with large developers with deep pockets who're likely to resist any price cut. 'A cocktail of low interest rates till at least late-2014 (as pledged by the US Federal Reserve) and higher inflation will in due course reignite another round of interest in the residential market as it's deemed a good hedge against inflation,' he said. Credo's Mr Ong paints two scenarios. 'In the best-case scenario, if the economic slowdown is milder than expected, then buying sentiment may remain positive, translating to sustained buying activity which will help to keep prices stable amid the build-up in supply. In the worst-case scenario, if there's a recession, we can expect demand to slacken, creating downward pressure on prices.' Lamenting the difficulty in making accurate predictions, Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng said: 'Each time after the government has announced cooling measures in the past two years, I thought the measures would be sufficient to cool the market. But things have turned out to be otherwise.' He admits that the ABSD will have some effect in curbing investment and foreign demand for private homes. 'Prices will come down - but to what degree before they go up again? What's the alternative for people with savings? Where should they put their money? If you believe in the longer term, property is as good a bet as any. After all, interest rates are expected to stay low for the next couple of years.' Price declines could be exacerbated by the secondary market, where volumes have slowed down more sharply than in the primary market (that is, developer sales). The number of units (excluding executive condos, or ECs) sold by developers fell 2.4 per cent from 16,292 units in 2010 to 15,904 units in 2011. However, the number of homes sold in the secondary market (resales and subsales combined) slipped 27.6 per cent, from 22,608 in 2010 to 16,357 in 2011. Developers are wooing buyers with nice showflats and appealing ad pitches. The ease of stretching out progress payments over a few years - compared with having to pay the full price upfront when buying a completed home in the secondary market - is another reason to buy a home directly from a developer. DTZ's Asia Pacific research head Chua Chor Hoon said: 'When secondary volumes come down, eventually it will affect prices. If demand slows down and sellers find it hard to sell after a few months hanging on to their prices, some owners will start to reduce prices. There will be more bargaining power for buyers as well as occupiers as rents start to ease.' URA stats also show that developers completed 12,469 private homes (excluding ECs), up 19.9 per cent from the 10,399 in 2010. This has begun to weigh on residential rents, which are rising at a slower rate. Savills Singapore expects a 'mild correction' of 5 per cent in rentals this year as more new apartments come on stream in the months ahead. It also expects the number of private residential leasing deals (excluding ECs) to hover around 45,000 in 2012, after hitting an all-time high of 45,062 leases last year. The figure for 2010 was 41,573. 'The strong 2011 showing may be attributed to Singapore becoming the preferred location among MNCs for their regional HQs. This has also attracted more senior and top executives to relocate here,' said Savills' residential leasing head Patrick Lai. DTZ's Ms Chua said rental pressure is greater in Core Central Region but this is likely to shift to Outside Central Region in three to four years due to expected completion of projects in suburban areas arising from the ramp-up in Government Land Sales since the second half of 2010. Source: Business Times