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經濟師:降溫措施雖帶來調整 私宅價格不致大跌

(2011-12-09 23:12:18) 下一個

(2011-12-10)

● 何麗麗 報道

  新的房地產降溫措施出台,經濟師預計我國的住宅房地產價格將有所調整,但不至於“大跌”。

  巴克萊資本亞太區除日本外策略主管兼董事德斯巴勒思(Olivier Desbarres)昨天在一個亞太區經濟展望記者會上回答媒體問題時表示,有足夠資金購買房地產的買家,不會因為額外印花稅而打消購買房地產的念頭。

  他指出,海外買家仍積極在本地買樓,顯示他們對我國的經濟還是信心十足。

  巴克萊資本在新加坡的經濟師巴加利亞(Rahul Bajoria)則指出,新加坡是亞洲區首選的避風港,因此政府控製房地產價格的做法是明智的。

  他也認為,本地房價料會逐步回落,但類似1996年到1998年的暴跌情況相信不會重演,這是因為住宅需求仍然強勁,而且政府的出發點是穩定房地產市場,若情況急轉而下,政府可能會取消一些降溫措施。

  由於可大量 借貸買房,德斯巴勒思不認為新的降溫措施會促使投資者將原本計劃拿來購買房地產的資金轉入股票、債券或其他資產類別。

  在經濟前景方麵,巴加利亞指出,多數亞洲經濟體料在明年上半年見底。

  他指出,我國經濟明年的增長料將放慢至3%,比今年5.2%的增長預測低,上半年的增長步伐將比下半年來得緩慢,主要因為佳節期間過後的電子與藥劑產品需求將放慢。

  巴克萊資本預料我國經濟在本季度將萎縮2%(年率化),巴加利亞認為,藥劑領域可能沒有辦法維持上個季度的強勁增長,而隨著貸款業務增長放慢,金融服務領域也將放緩,其他經濟周期敏感度較高的領域也將受影響。在通貨膨脹方麵,巴克萊資本預計我國明年的通脹率將放慢至3.1%,比今年全年的約5%來得低。巴加利亞說,這主要是因為底線效應(base effect)較高,而住房成本、租金以及擁車證價格相信不會出現大幅增長。

  針對我國的人力市場展望,巴加利亞指出,新加坡目前的失業率為2%,明年的新增工作漲幅相信將放慢,不過大規模的裁員活動相信不會發生。

  他說,政府在確保人力市場維持緊縮狀態這方麵扮演著重要角色,若經濟局勢轉惡劣,他相信政府將推出類似“雇用補貼計劃”的措施,而在明年的財政預算案,他相信政府會繼續實行同提高生產力相關的政策。

  巴加利亞相信,亞洲經濟體包括新加坡接下來將采取財政政策,如展開基礎設施項目來刺激經濟與人力市場。他指出,這是因為本區域經濟體多數的公共債務對國內生產總值比例並不高,因此有足夠財務能力實施財政政策,而財政政策也比貨幣政策更快見效。

  在明年4月份的政策會議上,巴加利亞預計金融管理局將維持讓新元逐步升值的政策。

  對於歐洲銀行去杆杠化(deleveraging)的行動,德斯巴勒思指出,新加坡和香港對歐洲銀行貸款的曝險主要來自英國,而英國銀行目前也仍在繼續擴大在本區域的貸款業務,因此我國受影響的程度並不大。

  德斯巴勒思強調,和2008年不同的是,目前本區域的貿易活動雖然已經放慢,不過還算強勁。他指出,有了2008年環球金融風暴的經驗,政策決策者將更有經驗應付任何突發狀況。

*holily@sph.com.sg

巴克萊資本在新加坡的經濟師巴加利亞認為,本地房價料會逐步回落,但類似1996年到1998年的暴跌情況相信不會重演,這是因為住宅需求仍然強勁,而且政府的出發點是穩定房地產市場,若情況急轉而下,政府可能會取消一些降溫措施。

[社論] 私宅投資需求過度值得關注

(2011-12-10)

社論

2011年12月10日

政府日前突然出台房地產降溫新措施,有人形容那是晴天霹靂,也有人稱之為重炮出擊。新加坡產業發展商公會 (REDAS)則對政府在決定采取新降溫措施之前沒同業界協商表示失望,並指它在市場前景不確定的情況下宣布這項降溫措施顯得不合時宜。與此同時,市場分 析師已紛紛對私宅需求將下降的幅度做出各種預測。

  新一輪針對外來投資者(包括個人與公司)的降溫措施,實際效果如何,還有待觀察,但它 所產生的即時的休克(shock)卻是顯而易見的。包括房地產發展商在內的諸多業內人士,看來都有猝不及防之感,但這種對市場極度敏感的措施,確實沒有同 業界協商的空間,否則其有效性必然要大打折扣。

  新措施規定,非個人投資者與外國買家繳付的買方印花稅大幅度上調。除了繼續支付原有約 3%的印花稅率,這些買家還須繳付10%的額外買方印花稅(Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty)。非個人投資者指的是公司、信托和集體投資計劃等。由於事前沒有什麽明顯征兆,因此,新措施促使一些潛在外來買家駐足觀望,以及發展商采取應急 措施,設法止瀉,都是意料中事。市場人士一般都預料需求的勢頭將會受到遏製。有分析師預測高檔房地產的價格將在未來6個月內下跌15%至20%,有者甚至 預測房價下跌幅度會高達30%。不過這些都隻是臆測。

  值得討論的是新降溫措施的必要性。國家發展部和財政部的聯合文告指出,盡管目前經 濟前景充滿不確定因素,私宅市場的需求依然堅挺。鑒於股市的不確定性以及市場利率保持低迷,新加坡私宅繼續吸引本地和外國投資者。但過度的投資需求將令房 地產周期波動較大,並因而加大經濟和銀行體係所承受的風險。對外國買家征收更高額的買方印花稅是必要的,此舉的目的在於推動房地產市場的可持續發展,使其 價格增幅與經濟基本麵保持一致。政府公布的數據顯示,在今年下半年至今購買本地私宅的外國人比率,已達到19%,比2009年上半年的7%多了許多。目前 的房價已比1996年次季度的高峰高出13%,比2008年次季度則高出16%。

  我國私宅之所以受到外國買家青睞,並成為投資首選之 一,顯然和我們的政治穩定、治安良好、法製完善等有關。在世界經濟極度不穩定、利率持續低迷、歐美等國房地產市場潰敗、中國嚴厲實行房價調控等情況下,新 加坡成了極少數世界遊資相中的投資目的地並非偶然。但這卻給我們的經濟帶來了資產價格膨脹(asset price inflation)的問題,也即資產價格的增幅脫離了經濟的基本麵。

  政府早前已預計,受到歐元區主權債務危機等因素影響,出口需求放 慢,我國明年的經濟將會顯著萎縮,但是,外來買家對本地私宅的需求卻依然殷切,這不僅刺激本地買家進場,也導致私宅價格的迅速膨脹。經濟前景看淡,私宅價 格卻反其道而行,政府顯然不能坐視這種扭曲的房地產投資和價格趨勢,有必要即時出手遏製,並設法把充沛的外來資金引向生產性的投資。雖然有人覺得,在此時 此刻出手,不合時宜,可能增加市場的悲觀氣氛,但抑製熱錢大量流入房市,避開必會與之俱來的經濟與金融風險是更加重要的。我們也相信,降溫措施是可控的, 政府必會密切留意追蹤接下來的發展,確保新措施能起到預期的效果,並盡量減少其可能產生的負麵效應。

私宅銷量與價格 未來數月料出現跌勢

趙愷健 (2011-12-10)

  政府周三宣布新一輪房地產降溫措施後,這兩天的私宅銷售量還沒有明顯出現大幅度下滑,不過市場人士預計接下來數個月將看到私宅在銷售量和價格方麵都出現一定的下跌。

  博納集團(PropNex)高級副總裁林永富表示,這兩天有的原已決定要購買的買家臨時表示要退出,不過人數不多,包括了打算買來居住和投資的買主。

  在前天起生效的新措施下,外國買家除了繼續支付原有約為房價3%的印花稅率,還須繳付10%的額外買方印花稅,顯然將大大影響買氣。

  不過林永富指出,這項措施才推出兩天,因此不太會馬上看到其對銷售量的影響,造成的衝擊還需要時間才會在市場中被完全反映出來。

  他預測,再過兩個月就能看到轉售私宅銷售量的下跌,加上每年在年底過年時都會有一定銷售量的下跌,因此覺得保守估計也至少會下跌三四成,甚至更多。

  然而,他也認為本地買家若是想把房子買下來長期居住的,對這個群體的影響反而不會太大,因為他們找到適合與合乎心意的房子還是會買下來,不想錯過了。

  Dennis Wee房地產經紀行董事許家榮則表示,由於他們的機構是每個月統計銷售量的,因此這兩天是否有明顯的下滑無法做出評斷。

  不過他指出這個月的銷售量一定會受影響,影響幅度還比較難預測,這是因為很多買家與業主都表示要先按兵不動,靜觀其變。

  對於私宅銷售量未來走勢,他則估計在下一季度可以看到約10%到20%的下滑。許家榮表示,每當政府發布一項新措施時,大家都會需要一些時間來分析和消化,因此目前可能還看不到措施帶來的全麵影響。

  他也指出,其實這項措施對於急需購買房子或是遇到真的鍾意房子的本地買主而言,影響不大,因為他們依然會買,而不會等待價格在未來可能下跌時才出手。

  此外,本地11家房地產經紀公司聯合設立的房地產交易網站SRX,記錄了每天的交易訊息,包括銷售量與成交價等。

  負責為此網站建立數據管道和應用軟件的StreetSine公司董事李俊暘表示,雖然網站記錄了今天的交易,但隻有在客戶繳交了訂金,才算是當天的交易,因此這些客戶可能在三個星期甚至三個月前就做好要買房子的決定了,目前還看不出交易量是否有下跌。

  在價格方麵,博納總裁伊斯邁預測,市場價格將會出現調整,在接下來的六個月中,核心中央區私宅價格會下跌約15至20%,大眾私宅價格則下調10至15%。

  他表示,大部分買家應該都會先等待市場調整,並仔細觀察此降溫措施的影響後,才會再度入場,核心中央區的交易量可能會下跌約40%。

  許家榮對於價格調整的估計則比較保守,他認為私宅價格在下個季度隻會下跌約5至10%,並不會掉太多。

  他認為很多外國投資者也不會急著馬上把房子脫手,因此也不會在市場調整前急於出售房子,而會選擇繼續持有這些資產直到市場逐漸恢複。

  另外,其實這個新政策也有例外,與我國簽署自由貿易協定的五個國家的公民,是無需支付外國買家的額外10%印花稅的。

  這五個國家分別是美國、瑞士、列支敦斯登、挪威和冰島,這些國家的公民在我國買房時,隻需要繳付和新加坡人一樣的印花稅。

《聯合早報》










A different take on latest property curbs
Straits Times: Sat, Dec 10















THE latest round of measures to promote what the government claims would be 'a stable and sustainable property market' begs many questions. Let's begin with the basic parameters. First of all, the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) is applicable only to the private residential segment, not to other segments such as office, retail, industrial, HDB shops, HDB flats, Executive Condominiums (ECs), etc. So perhaps a more appropriate claim should be 'a stable and sustainable private real estate sector'.

Next, the key objective listed was 'to promote a sustainable residential property market where prices move in line with economic fundamentals'.

Prices of private residential properties have continued to rise, albeit more slowly in the last two quarters. According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority, prices are now 13 per cent above the peak in Q2 1996 and 16 per cent above the more recent peak in Q2 2008.

In the many overseas seminars I have spoken at, I am always happy to reassure investors that as a broad guiding principle, foreigners and Singaporeans are not treated any differently when investing in Singapore. However, now we have imposed a 10 per cent ABSD on foreigners who purchase residential units. If we apply these stamp duties on the residential real estate asset class, does it imply that other asset types, such as commercial properties, stocks, capital equipment, cars, COEs, etc are also likely future candidates for additional stamp duties if the public perception is that a particular asset is beyond Singaporeans' reach?

Or, if the stock market becomes too hot and the Straits Times Index surpasses the October 2007 peak of 3,850 points by 20 per cent, reaching, say, 4,600 points, will the authorities also implement higher stamp duties on foreigners' stock investments, 'owing to the small market size of the SGX' to make the stocks more affordable for Singaporeans?

What about stamp duty on foreigners' purchase of COEs because the COE pool is limited? What is the significance of measuring our private residential prices against the previous peaks? And what has this got to do with foreigners today, given that in 2006-2008, prime properties such as St Regis Residences, Ardmore II, Sentosa Cove, Orchard Residences and were snapped up mainly by foreigners.

Most foreigners invested in Singapore's long-term future as part of their portfolio diversification and wealth protection for their families. Why were such measures to curb foreign ownership (individuals, families or institutional funds) of residential properties not implemented at that time when the luxury residential sector was booming hot?

I have expressed in several articles that the climb in the private residential index is the result of strong sales at new record prices in mass-market launches. This climb is mainly contributed by Singaporeans and Singapore permanent residents (PRs). The proportion of foreigners purchasing in the mass market is low, at 10-20 per cent as the mass-market residential segment is not considered 'investment grade'. I have also provided data to show that foreigners have not been significant contributors to the increase in mass-market home prices.

The fundamental cause of the climb in mass-market prices has been the strength of HDB resale prices, where the rate of growth is higher than that of the private residential index. Owners of HDB flats feel confident about the rising values of their flats. And since money in savings accounts devalues due to the prolonged 5 per cent inflation, and mortgage costs are low, they look for safe, secure investments. This leads them to purchase private residential properties for rental income and as an inflation hedge.

Unfortunately, the new measures do not address the rising HDB resale prices and so the effect on mass-market private apartment prices may be limited. Likewise, newly launched ECs and ECs that are not yet privatised will not be hit hard in terms of volume and price.

I believe that landed properties may suffer a direct, but limited, impact. A handful of Singaporean investors who buy many landed properties for the long term will be affected. They may not mind paying the extra 3 per cent ABSD if they can find their ideal landed property investments. That said, a Good Class Bungalow (GCB) collector wishing to invest in a $30 million house will be paying around $1.8 million (6 per cent) stamp duty if this were his third or more residential property. If he were to purchase the GCB under a trust, for wealth transfer purposes, a $3 million stamp duty would also apply.

This round of measures will positively benefit the strata office, retail and industrial segments of the property market. Many mass-market investors will surely flock to these products, as well as more exotic overseas properties. We should expect to see more 150-sq-ft retail units or tiny industrial units for sale. Time will tell whether such investments will turn out to be stable and sustainable for the property market, or not.

The biggest impact will be felt by developers of luxury residences who are more dependent on foreign investors. Several developers have overseas sales offices to promote their Singapore residential products. However, foreign investors wishing to buy a $10 million Orchard Road property will now think many times about paying almost $1.3 million (13 per cent) in buyer stamp duties. This is not a measure that increases the amount of equity foreign investors need to put into their properties; it is a tax which once paid cannot be recovered. Our residential market has just got uglier in terms of investment returns.

The other stakeholder group directly hit by the measures are the real estate agents, many of whom are active in promoting Singapore residential properties in Indonesia, China, Malaysia and Hong Kong. Following closely behind would be the relationship managers in private banks active in prospecting foreign high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and getting them to park their investments under Singapore trusts. Then we have the priority bankers, the mortgage bankers, the contractors and interior designers who serve the high end market. Many rice bowls, if not already shaken by the global jitters, will surely be shaken now.

My main worry remains: What is the signal perceived by foreigners?

There are genuine foreign buyers who prefer to purchase the roofs over their heads. For example, A*Star and our medical fraternity have gone overseas to attract foreign doctors and medical researchers to work in Singapore. They may relocate here for our high quality of medical practice but these professionals also need homes for their families. Not every foreigner likes to pay rent. Many prefer to build up equity through purchasing their own homes and taking bank loans.

There is another group under the MAS Financial Investor Scheme (FIS) worth mentioning. HNW families applying for the FIS invest $10 million into Singapore are allowed to apply $2 million towards the purchase of a residential property for their own use. Probably the most expensive PR scheme in the world, the FIS has a long queue of HNWIs, some having waited over a year for approval. The latest measures mean that if they choose to apply $2 million of their $10 million investment into a residential unit, they need to pay ABSD in excess of $260,000 depending on the value of the property purchased.

Overall, I think these measures will effectively grind the luxury residential segment to a crawl. Foreign residential property funds will also surely stay out while this tax is in place. The measures could be less effective in the mass markets, given the bulk of Outside Central Region (OCR) launches are snapped up by Singaporeans who feel confident about their rising HDB valuations. Recall the queues and fast-paced sales at recent OCR launches.

I would hope for a tweak in the policy to allow foreigners to buy their first home at the existing 3 per cent buyer stamp duty. Many foreigners are here to work and to settle down with their families and they have a genuine need to own one home for shelter. Singapore is a country made successful by the influx of foreigners in the last two centuries and it must remain an open economy in order to survive. The Economic Development Board, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and other government agencies' efforts to attract foreign investors to our shores may be tougher if this signal were read negatively as a protectionist measure.

Foreigners who are already settled here but who have not purchased their homes may feel short-changed by such discriminatory policies, especially when there is insufficient evidence that foreigners are the main cause for the rise in home prices.

With the new measures, are we signalling: Our right hand welcomes you while our left hand blocks you from getting a comfortable life? Would we want the government agencies to slow down the pace in attracting foreign financial institutions and MNCs to expand in Singapore? That will reduce demand for housing but it will also weaken the robust job environment.

This policy aimed at foreigners will harm our reputation as an investment capital. Instead of penalising foreigners with heavy taxes, we could give more incentives to support Singaporeans and Singapore PRs. Already, loan-to-value ratios for purchasing properties are more attractive for Singaporeans than those for foreigners. Let's have more carrots for Singaporeans instead of wielding the stick on foreigners.

  • The writer is CEO of International Property Advisor Pte Ltd and author of the book: 'Real Estate Riches - Understanding Singapore's property market in a volatile economy'


    Source: Business Time

    Analysts expect property prices to soften in 2012

     

    The Singapore private residential property market was hit with two rounds of cooling measures in 2011 – moves widely described by analysts as harsh.

    Coupled with an expected slowdown in the global economy, home-buying decisions may stall in 2012.

    And developers may also roll out more incentives to prop up sales.

    Despite the uncertain economic outlook in 2011, home-buying interest remained healthy judging by the long queues at recent property launches.

    Analysts expect new private homes sales to hit a total of 15,000 to 16,000 units this year, compared to nearly 16,300 units sold in 2010.

    Next year, crowds at property launches could get thinner as weak economic sentiment undermines the confidence people have in keeping their jobs.

    Sales volume for 2012 is likely to dip further to under 14,000 units for the whole year.

    Dr Chua Yang Liang, Research Head, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “If the transaction volumes were to declined and sustained into 2012, then prices are expected to be affected. From our forecast we think possibly between 10 to 15 percent on the downside.”

    Analysts say there is no chance of recovery for high-end property next year, with prices likely to slide 20 per cent.

    The sale of high-end units was already lacklustre before the government imposed an Additional Buyers’ Stamp duty in December, which will further dampen demand from foreigners.

    Market watchers expect some diversion of investor interest from residential, to other real estate including office and strata industrial properties.

    Meanwhile, the cheaper home loans and genuine latent occupier demand are expected to continue to drive the mass market home segment.

    However, prices for such homes could see a downward correction of about 10 per cent next year

    To mitigate the impact of the cooling measures, experts say developers are likely to dangle a carrot in front of home buyers.

    Chia Siew Chuin, Director, Research & Advisory, Colliers International, said: “They may have to even align their prices to move the sales or even look at incentives, soft sale kind of measures, probably extending rebates in the sense of discounts or even absorbing stamp duty on behalf of buyers or extending other kinds of incentives not only to buyers but also to agents to help them move sales.”

    Developers will also continue to launch new projects, especially those in the suburban areas.

    Donald Han, Vice Chairman, Cushman & Wakefied, said: “We will continue to see more launches coming up for mass market, mainly because the government sales of sites that have been launched in the last 24 months…a record number of over 20 sites will have to come into the market. They (the developers) have to do it now as these are on 99-year leases, unlike the high-end or mid-end projects which are traditionally freehold projects having a longer tenure life.”

    Analysts say developers will also be more measured in their land bids next year, and prices for sites that are less attractive could dip by some 10 to 12 per cent.

    Source : Channel NewsAsia – 14 Dec 2011







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