insight
工程技術，地產投資，信仰家園，時尚生活
吳慧敏 (2011-10-29)
全球經濟前景不明朗，本地私宅價格也連續第八個季度放緩漲幅，由第二季的上漲2％，收緊至上漲1.3％。不過 ，今年第三季的私宅價格指數仍繼續挺進至205.7點的曆史新高位。這比2008年第二季的高峰高了15.9％，也比1996年第二季的高峰高了13.4％。
高力國際研究與谘詢部主管謝岫君認為，私宅價格漲幅緩慢，可能是因為買家感受到外在風險加劇，再加上政府大舉發放土地，所以變得更加謹慎，並且對價格的進一步上調開始產生抗拒心理。“這在一定程度上抑製了價格的大幅上漲。”
博納（PropNex）集團總裁伊斯邁則認為，除了全球經濟前景不明朗，這也是因為2009年月至2011年1月實施的一連串降溫措施正在奏效。
“賣方必須更合理地定價，以便讓組屋提升者負擔得起，因為今年下半年預計有超過1萬個新私宅單位推出，這也將為潛在買家提供了更多選擇權。”
在公寓方麵，代表高檔領域的核心中央區（CCR）價格上漲最少，隻有0.7％。
ERA房地產公司助理副總裁林東榮說：“通常，核心中央區的房子是買來投資的。因此這類買家比較容易受到全球經濟波動的影響。”
代表中檔領域的其他中央區（RCR），房價上升了1.2％。
至於代表大眾化領域的中央區以外（OCR），房價漲幅最多，上升了2.1％。
謝岫君指出，這反映了真誠買家和長線投資者的需求、利率處於低位，以及充裕的現金環境。
伊斯邁指出，有地住宅的行情也在逆境中依然吃香，人們還是對購買有地住宅非常感興趣。特別是較小型的有地住宅，如排屋和半獨立洋房的價格，分別在第三季上升了3.9％和3.7％。
今年首三個季度，本地私宅價格已經累積上漲了5.6％。受訪的分析員認為，今年全年的房價漲幅將達到6％至7％。這意味，第四季的房價可能繼續上升1％至1.6％。
伊斯邁認為，有鑒於全球經濟局勢可能惡化，並最終影響到買房氣氛，價格漲幅可能會繼續放緩。不過，低利率環境和強勁的基本因素將繼續支撐房價保持穩定。
私宅交易仍活躍
在成交量方麵，今年第三季的私宅交易也保持活躍，達到7866個單位。這雖然比第二季的9786個單位少，卻比第一季的7725個單位多。
在公開市場上賣出的二手單位減少至3604個，但是，發展商賣出的新私宅單位卻高達4262個，這雖然低於第二季的4444個單位，卻比2010年第一季以來成交量第二高的季度。
其中賣得最好的項目，包括8月份推出的EuHabitat、The Luxurie和Boathouse Residence，以及9月份推出的A Treasure Trove和The Meyerise。
今年至今以來，發展商已經賣出了1萬2301個新私宅單位。
受訪的分析員大多認為，今年的新私宅銷售量不會超越2010年的1萬6292個單位曆史最高水平。
一般猜測，今年房市對新單位的“消化能力”應該介會於1萬5000至1萬6000個單位。
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國大數據顯示 轉售私人公寓價格9月連續第三個月橫擺
（2011-10-29）
● 《聯合早報》龔慧婷 報道新加坡國立大學所追蹤的新加坡房地產價格指數（簡稱SRPI）顯示，本地轉售的私人公寓價格在9月份連續第三個月橫擺。
不過，9月份領漲和領跌的領域與8月份完全相反。
在8月份，價格上漲幅度最大的是小型公寓，而在9月份，小型公寓的價格下跌幅度最大。
經過調整後的8月份數據顯示，在該月領漲的主要是小型公寓，價格攀升了3.0％；領跌的是不包括小型公寓在內的中央區公寓價格，下滑了0.5％。不包括小型公寓的非中央區公寓價格，在8月份持平。因此，整體指數為下跌0.2％。
在9月份，領漲的卻是不包括小型公寓在內的非中央區公寓價格，但也隻微漲了0.2％；領跌的是小型公寓，下滑了1.9％。不包括小型公寓的中央區公寓價格，在9月份微跌0.2％。因此，整體指數微微上揚0.1％。
戴德梁行（DTZ）東南亞研究部主管蔡楚芬說，指數似乎顯示，非中央區的轉售私宅價格，比中央區的轉售私宅穩定。
她認為，那是因為非中央區有來自組屋提升者的強勁需求做後盾，價格對投資者來說，也是在比較能負擔得起的範圍。
卓登新達（Chesterton Suntec）研究部主管陳瑞謹也說：“這些數據反映了市場上的實際情況：所有的（交易）活動都集中在郊區或屬於大眾私宅的項目。”
此外，他指出一些地點較中心的項目，或是在市區外圍卻靠近中央商業區的項目，或許出現較少的銷售活動，因此價格增長停滯或稍微下滑。
Mass-market home prices rise above froth
《Business Times》Published October 29, 2011
Driven by genuine demand, this segment shines brightest in Q3 as cooling measures keep speculators on the sidelines
THE mass-market housing segment or Outside Central Region in Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) parlance continued to be the clear outperformer in the private housing market this year. While speculators who target other segments have been scared away by cooling measures, the mass-market segment was again held aloft in Q3 by genuine buyers.
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'These people typically go for homes in affordable locations, in mass market projects in Outside Central Region (OCR),' said Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui. On the supply side, too, the government has been pushing out development sites predominantly in OCR, which is translating to new project launches in these locations, say market watchers.
URA's figures show that the overall private home price index rose 1.3 per cent quarter on quarter (q-on-q) in Q3 this year, a slower rise than the 2 per cent q-on-q gain in Q2 2011. The sub-index measuring prices of non-landed private homes in OCR posted a 2.1 per cent q-on-q rise in Q3, outpacing a 1.2 per cent q-on-q increase in Rest of Central Region and 0.7 per cent q-on-q rise in the Core Central Region (which covers Singapore's choicest residential locations). Year to date, the increases for the three regions are 7.1 per cent, 4.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively.
Numbers from Institute of Real Estate Studies (IRES) at the National University of Singapore released yesterday also showed that the Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) for Non-Central Region (excluding small units) has increased 10.2 per cent year to date (between December 2010 and September 2011), outpacing the 3.3 per cent rise in the SRPI Central Region (excluding small units) index.
IRES defines Central Region as Districts 1-4 (which includes the financial district and Sentosa Cove) and traditional prime residential districts of 9-11. SRPI covers completed private apartments and condos.
Reflecting the popularity of smallish units, the SRPI Small index, which tracks prices of completed non-landed private homes up to 506 sq ft islandwide, has climbed 10.1 per cent year to date. The Overall SRPI has appreciated 7.3 per cent year to date.
URA's numbers show that developers sold a total of 4,262 private homes (in uncompleted and completed projects) islandwide in Q3, down 4.1 per cent from 4,444 units in Q3.
In OCR alone, developers found buyers for 3,082 uncompleted units in Q3, up 13.8 per cent from Q2's 2,709 units. The figure for the first nine months of this year was 7,692 units - exceeding the full-year 2010 figure of 7,296 units for 2010 as well as the figures for the previous years, notes Credo's Mr Ong.
'This trend attests to the robust suburban mass market which has been the focus of market activity during this period. In contrast, for Core Central Region (CCR) only 207 units were sold in Q3, reminiscent of the volumes in 2008 when the market slumped. The 1,269 units sold in CCR from Q1-Q3 2011 is 59 per cent below that for the same period in 2010. The upper end of the market has become more sluggish, partly due to a lack of demand from investors,' he added.
Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong predicts that it is unlikely the market will see any inflexion point for Q4 2011 or even Q1 2012 in the URA private home price index 'given the broad-based positive momentum from all (private residential) property types, both uncompleted and completed'. He predicts URA's headline index will rise 1.6 per cent in Q4 followed by 0.4 per cent in Q1 2012. 'Fundamentally this is supportable because HDB resale prices have also been rising strongly, thereby buttressing the lower end of the private property segment,' he added.
URA highlighted the build-up in the pipeline supply of uncompleted private homes to 76,255 as at end-Q3 2011, up 7.2 per cent from 71,111 units at end-Q2 2011 and the highest figure since such data was made available in 1999. Of the latest pipeline supply, 39,111 units were unsold. Credo's Mr Ong acknowledged: 'The number of unsold units has certainly increased in the past few quarters indicating a build-up in supply. However, this has to be seen in perspective to understand its severity. Back in 2008, when the market corrected due to the global financial crisis, the number of unsold units was as high as 43,473, constituting 64 per cent of the pipeline supply (67,569) in Q2 2008. The current 39,111 unsold units is 51 per cent of the Q3 2011 pipeline supply. What the current figures suggest is that the situation is not dire but could get risky if demand falls significantly,' he added.
DTZ's Southeast Asia research head Chua Chor Hoon noted that while the price increases of private residential homes continued to moderate in Q3, prices of office, shop and industrial space rose at a faster clip in Q3 than they did in Q2. 'This is likely due to investor interest as the non-residential sectors are not subject to cooling measures,' she notes.
'However, the pace of increase in commercial and industrial rents is slower in Q3 q-on-q as the slowdown in the economy and increasing concerns over the eurozone debt crisis take a toll on occupier sentiment. A continued slowdown in the rental increase will eventually filter down to prices as it will affect yields.'
Private housing prices moderate
Prices of private residential properties increased by 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2011, lower than the 2.0 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
This was the eighth consecutive quarter in which the rate of increase in overall private housing prices had moderated, according to real estate statistics released on Friday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).
Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region (CCR) — which includes postal districts 9, 10 and 11 — increased at a slower pace of 0.7 per cent in the third quarter, compared to the 1.6 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, prices for Rest of Central Region2 (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) increased by 1.2 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively in the third quarter.
This is slightly higher than the 1.1 per cent and 1.7 per cent increase in the previous quarter.
Rentals of private residential properties rose by 0.8 per cent in the third quarter, less than the 1.3 per cent increase in the previous quarter.
URA said there was a total supply of 76,255 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline, as at the end of the third quarter this year.
This supply is higher than the 71,111 units in the previous quarter, and also the highest ever recorded since
such data was first available in 1999.
Meanwhile, the total stock of completed Executive Condominium (EC) units remained unchanged at 10,430 units as at the end of the third quarter.
In addition,there were 5,332 EC units in the pipeline.
URA added that another 1,115 EC units could come from the EC sites that have been released for sale via the 2nd Half 2011 government land sales (GLS) Programme.
Source : Channel NewsAsia – 28 Oct 2011
Private home prices hit new high, growth pace slows
Private home prices hit another all-time high even as the rate of increase continued to moderate, suggesting that caution had crept into the market amid heightened uncertainty in the macro-economic environment and a large supply pipeline.
According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the price index of private residential properties increased 1.3 per cent in the third quarter this year from the previous quarter to hit 205.7. Still, the rise was significantly lower than the 2-per-cent increase in the previous quarter and the URA said it was the eighth consecutive quarter in which the rate of price growth had moderated.
Ms Chia Siew Chuin, director of Research & Advisory at property consultancy Colliers International, said: “This is the first time since 4Q 2010 when the final full-quarter price index remains unchanged from the flash estimate. This could be reflective of a more cautious market sentiment.”
The URA said that as at the end of the third quarter, there were 76,255 uncompleted private homes from projects in the pipeline, higher than the 71,111 units at the end of the second quarter and the highest ever recorded.
A breakdown of the URA data showed that price growth in the city fringe and suburban areas outpaced that in the prime areas.
For the Rest of Central Region (RCR), prices increased 1.2 per cent, up slightly from 1.1 per cent in the previous quarter. In the Outside Central Region (OCR), prices rose 2.1 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent previously.
Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region (CCR) increased at a slower pace of 0.7 per cent compared to the 1.6 per cent in the previous quarter.
On the strength in OCR prices, Ms Chia said: “This is despite the grim global economic outlook and reflects demand from genuine home-buyers and longer-term investors as they remain confident about Singapore’s economic fundamentals amid a continued low interest rate and ample liquidity environment.”
Separately, the National University of Singapore yesterday released its Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) for September. The overall SRPI, which tracks prices of completed non-landed private homes, increased a marginal 0.1 per cent from the previous month after falling 0.2 per cent in August.
The SRPI Small, which tracks prices of homes under 506 sq ft, fell 1.9 per cent after rising 3 per cent in the previous month.
Source : Today – 29 Oct 2011
