新加坡私人住宅外國買家增加

吳淑賢　(2011-10-21)

購買私人住宅的外國人已增加，政府正在密切關注市場走勢，並會在必要時推出更多措施來控製情況。 　　國家發展部長許文遠昨天回應迪舒沙（荷蘭—武吉知馬集選區）的詢問時說，私宅的海外買家已從去年占交易量的12％，增加至今年上半年的16％。 　　但許文遠也說，房地產價格上漲不應該完全歸咎於外國買家。這是因為其他因素如低利率以及良好的經濟基礎都可能影響房屋需求。 　　國家發展部受詢時說，外國買家去年購買4315個單位，今年上半年則購買2552個單位，數目分別占交易量的12％及16％。 　　許文遠說，政府會密切留意情況，並在必要時推出更多措施。政府最近已收緊外國人購買有地住宅的條件。 　　“不過，環球金融市場仍舊不明朗，歐美的增長也疲弱，我們須小心翼翼，以免加速市場信心的流失。” 　　迪舒沙進一步提問時說，外國買家在本地私宅市場的占有率是否太高，因為一旦經濟走下波，這些外國屋主較可能離開，留下本地屋主承擔後果。 　　他因此想知道，我國是否能效仿澳大利亞的做法，讓外國人在買賣房地產時麵對更多限製。據他說，外國人隻能在澳洲購買新的房地產，並須售賣房子給當地人。 需調整房屋政策 但不應影響經濟 　　許文遠回應時說，每個國家的曆史不同，情況也不一樣，澳洲有自己處理問題的方式，我國也是如此。 　　他說：“我需要對房屋政策作出調整，但更重要的是得確保任何調整不會不經意地影響我國經濟及社會。” 　　許文遠表示明白迪舒沙的擔憂，並會小心處理問題。然而，環球經濟局勢不在他的控製之內，而這方麵的波動必定影響我國。 　　李美花（義順集選區）則想知道，外國買主得占有私宅市場多高比例，才會促使政府推出額外措施？ 　　許文遠說，施政的智慧難以轉換成數字，否則依賴電腦就行了。他語帶玄機地說，無論是推出還是減少降溫措施都會影響市場走勢，因此他現在不便透露太多。 　　整體來說，購買私宅的仍以本地人居多，占今年所有交易的超過八成。許文遠說，許多成功的新加坡人都希望擁有私宅，首次購買私宅的國人更會對屋價高漲感到擔憂。 　　然而，許文遠說，相對於承諾讓幾乎每個家庭都能擁有一個組屋單位，政府不能保證每名要購買私宅的人都能如願以償。 　　“但是我們會確保建造私宅的土地供應足夠，讓國人有更多機會可以擁有私宅。” 　　為滿足國人對私宅的強勁需求，政府在售地計劃下推出更多地段，今年推出的地段可建造1萬4500個單位，比去年的1萬個單位多。政府售地計劃的步伐將持續下去，直到市場完全穩定下來。 　　目前，市場仍有3萬4000個私宅單位還未出售，估計可滿足超過兩年的需求。 　　許文遠說，政府已采取一係列措施來穩定市場，減少投機需求。這些措施已初見成效，不過還須要一段時間才能完全發揮效用。新單位也要時間建造，長久來看將有助於穩定市場。 　　他也透露，雖然私宅價格一直上漲，2009年第三季以來的增幅已放緩，今年至今的價格漲幅是6％，比去年全年的18％來得少。

《聯合早報》

 Private home market gaining momentum

October 21, 2011

For the past couple of weeks, you get the sense that momentum is building up in the private housing market.

In an ironic twist, a private residential site tender at Flora Drive in Upper Changi broke new ground on Wednesday, the same day National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan said it was not time yet to remove the property market cooling measures.

It was the first site sale to reverse the tide of cautious bids for the past few land tenders. The tender attracted eight bids, with the top offer coming at S$163 million or S$361 per sq ft per plot ratio. This is 11 per cent higher than the S$325 psf winning bid for an adjacent site sold in June which attracted only four bids.

You could say that this day was some time in the making. Even as the past few state land sales attracted lower – and fewer – bids, the point is that they still got sold. The past few years have been golden years for developers, with many achieving strong profits. Many are facing the “good” problem of how best to re-invest these profits.

But more important than profits for developers is that housing sales are continuing, albeit at stable price levels.

The latest developer sales numbers for last month showed housing units sold jumping by 20.7 per cent from the previous month, or by 25.8 per cent, including the sale of Executive Condominiums.

Can the buying momentum continue and surpass the record 16,292 private homes achieved last year? It is a tall order but why not, if – as many have predicted – developers are rushing over themselves to push out their units.

And if sales continue to be robust, can we expect prices to remain unchanged for long since rising prices and sales often always go hand-in-hand?

Adding to the momentum is the ongoing collective sales – but with a big difference this time. The en bloc sale scene has clearly entered a new phase where the majority of owners for some projects are “determined” to sell.

This week alone saw five developments being put up for collective sale – Faber Garden, Dragon Mansion, Newton Lodge, Dunearn Gardens and Jasmine Court.

For the majority of owners in Dragon Mansion and Dunearn Gardens, they are openly lowering their price expectations. If owners are determined to sell, I strongly suspect they will get it sold eventually.

What will be the impact of this continuous stream of collective sales? For one, they will remove some of the housing stock and possibly some rental units – which will lend some support to the rental market.

Some owners will choose to rent while others will downgrade for the time being. This will again impact both the rental market and raise housing sales for existing developments. Others will seize their opportunity to make big money, enough to possibly retire comfortably.

For these owners and other investors, the path is clear. There is price stability in the private housing market – which means no more cooling measures for the time being. They may even derive some comfort from Mr Khaw’s announcement on Wednesday that his top priority for the next two years will be to tend to the housing needs of two groups: Newlyweds and vulnerable families.

As the saying goes, when the cat’s away, the mice will play.

By Colin Tan – head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.