盡管目前本地房市潛在供應量處於曆史新高，仲量聯行研究部主管蔡炎亮博士卻不認為房價會因此而下跌，相反的從現在到2015年，每年還能有至少1.8％的漲幅。 他縱觀本地房地產市場曆來的走勢，發現房價很少會因供應量充裕而下調。加上過去幾年的人口增長速度比興建房屋的步伐更快，市場已有足夠的積壓需求來支持價格。 蔡炎亮在他最新發表的《新加坡住宅市場新供應白皮書》中指出，若按照下來比較緩慢的人口增長來估計，新加坡人口到2015年應該可達到520萬，這將足以吸納2014年和2015年每年將注入市場的5萬間私宅和組屋。 這份報告指出根據人口普查數據，我國自2003年以來的人口增長主要是由外來移民帶動，其中非居民人口過去十年以每年7％的速度增長，居民人口（公民與永久居民）則每年增長1.9％。 然而在同一時期，市場上的私宅與組屋整體供應量每年卻隻增加2.1％。這導致住戶的平均人數增至去年的4.37人，高於過去十年平均的4.08人，將刺激對新房屋的需求上揚。這也進而推高房價，尤其是在2006/07年和2009/10年，全國私宅價格分別上漲了31％和18％。 蔡博士說，由於需求強勁，發展商在過去幾年興建了更多私宅，自2006年以來每年推出1萬2000間，這比從1998年至2005年，每年平均推出6600間高出82％。 盡管如此，即使是在2014/15年每年有約5萬間私宅和組屋供應，市場也要到2015年才能取得較為理想的平衡點。由此可見買屋自住者的需求，仍將繼續保持強勁。 經濟若衰退 房價照樣跌 不過，蔡博士昨天在記者會上強調上述預測是基於我國經濟到2015年仍保持穩定，如果出現衰退，私宅價格仍然會走下坡。 他指出，根據曆來走勢，新加坡的私宅價格指數基本上是由市場情緒所主導，自1998年以來出現過兩次顯著下調，第一次介於2000/01年，第二次則在2007/08年，這兩次調整都出現在市場並沒有足夠供應的情況下。然而，在初始的震蕩後，市場很快又恢複原有水平。 詢及目前全球經濟局勢不穩定，將為本地房市帶來多大的衝擊時，他說：“這將影響房市情緒，造成短期內需求和房價波動，但整體上來說，在這些基本麵支撐下，中長期展望保持穩定。” 他指出，如果外來移民繼續流入，就算步伐有所放緩，以求保持住戶平均人數為4.08人，到了2015年，我國人口也將達到550萬。 如果這種情況發生，目前的供應還不足以應付需求，房價因此將更快速地上漲，從現在到2015年，每年的漲幅將達到7.5％。 政府每年仍須注入至少1萬6000單位 因此，蔡炎亮指出決策者仍需繼續向市場注入供應，以應付需求。 如果外來移民的增長速度放緩，市場每年也需要1萬6000至1萬7000個單位，這意味著人口年平均增長率為0.8％或在2015年達到520萬人。 若人口增長速度為每年平均1.5％，或到2015年達到550萬人，那政府就需要為市場注入約2萬2000至2萬4000個單位。 至於2015年之後的供需情況，蔡博士認為取決於政府移民政策方向。 巴西立盛港榜鵝 供應過多衝擊最大 國際產業顧問（IPA）總裁邱瑞榮對房市供應量問題則有不同的見解。他指出目前歐美經濟和債務危機重重，本地房屋供應量過剩的情況，對代表大眾化私宅的中央區以外（Outside Central Region，簡稱OCR）的衝擊最令人擔憂，尤其是在巴西立、盛港和榜鵝。 不過，他說若把代表中檔、高檔領域和有地私宅都計算在內，私宅價格仍然可能會出現升幅。 Orange Tee研究部董事陳國強認為房市是否會因供過於求而出現調整，主要得看政府的移民政策和人口增長速度，但這個問題很棘手，因為有一部分新加坡人已經對人口增長過快感到不滿，而其他基礎設施，如地鐵網絡的擴大還未到位。 “目前對於經濟展望，各方都持有不同的意見，但我並不排除全球經濟出現衰退的可能性。不過，我們應該不會看到2008/09年的曆史重演，因此未來數月，私宅價格應該處於橫擺狀態。” *lminwen@sph.com.sg 《聯合早報》 Housing demand to remain stable, says Jones Lang LaSalle
September 15, 2011 Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), a global property consultancy firm, has
expressed a different view from most analysts who have said that
Singapore will face a housing glut between 2013 and 2015.
“Demand for housing is likely to remain fairly stable and support the
injection of new stock over the next few years,” said Dr Chua Yang
Liang, Research Head of JLL Southeast Asia.
It added that the residential market will not see a correction in
2014 and 2015, even though a large amount of new homes are due for
completion over those two years.
JLL believes that an average of around 50,000 HDB flats and private homes will be available each year in 2014 and 2015.
Dr Chua noted that the housing market will not contract as a result
of new stock. He added that the growth in population over the past few
years has outgrown the rise in physical housing stock. This implies that
the demand backlog is expected to keep prices stable.
JLL employed two different rates of population and immigration growth
to determine the expected state of Singapore’s housing market in 2014
and 2015.
In the first scenario, the group assumes that Singapore’s population
is just 5.2 million by 2015. This implies that the cumulative
residential stock (the total number of houses available for rent and
owner-occupation) cannot meet the total demand in 2014.
Dr Chua noted, however, that supply will be greater than demand in 2015.
As a result, the official property price index is expected to rise by an average of 1.8 percent a year until 2015.
In the second scenario, JLL assumes a total population of 5.5 million
in Singapore by 2015. This suggests that the new housing stock may be
insufficient in both 2014 and 2015 to meet annual residential demand.
As a result, property prices could rise by an average of 7.5 percent per year from 2011 to 2015.
Source : PropertyGuru – 14 Sep 2011
Will the Upcoming Supply Cause Property Prices to Fall?
By Mr. Propwise
In an interesting and contrarian report, Dr. Chua Yang Liang of Jones Lang Lasalle argues that the surge in upcoming supply will not cause property prices to fall. In this article I will sum up his arguments and add some of my own thoughts. Recently several property analysts have been arguing that a correction in the Singapore residential market is in the pipeline in 2014/2015 due to the large stock of housing completions during that period (~50,000 public + private unit per year), which is 2.5 times the average completed since 2001.
Dr. Chua believes that residential property prices will not fall despite this large increase in supply for the following three reasons:
1. The Singapore residential market has not corrected based on supply alone in the last decade
Dr. Chua calculates two metrics he terms as the short-term and long-term balance of housing stock. The short-term balance compares his estimated household demand formation (e.g. from marriages and immigration) with the housing completions based on URA and HDB data. The long-term balance is the cumulative sum of the short term balance over time.
He argues that if you compare this short and long term balance of housing stock with the URA Property Price Index (PPI), you will find that the PPI is mainly sentiment and not supply-driven. For example, the two major corrections in the PPI since 1998 were in 2000-2001 and 2007-2008, which happened due to external shocks and despite the housing balances indicating a stock shortage.
2. Immigration is likely to continue and support the demand for upcoming new supply
Dr. Chua believes that the recently mentioned population target of 5.5 million by 2050 is too low, as it suggests a growth rate of just 0.2% per year over the next 40 years, which will be insufficient to support economic growth.
He thinks in the low case we should use the 6.5 million target by 2050 (which was used by URA in the 2000 Concept Plan), and in the high case we could hit 5.5 million by 2015 (which would involve keeping the resident population growth rate at the same pace as 2010 while slightly lowering the foreign population growth rate).
This continued growth in population will thus create new demand for the upcoming supply.
3. “Residual demand” backlog is likely to keep prices stable
The population has increased from 4.02 million people in 2000 to 5.1 million in 2010, a 2.4% annual compounded increase (with the nonresident population growing at 5.6% compounded). But the total housing stock (private and public) has only grown from 956,275 to 1,158,885, or a 1.9% annual compounded increase.
The net effect is that the size of the average national household (Dr. Chua uses total population divided by total housing stock excluding worker and student dormitory housing, which is different from the Census
definition) has increased from 4.21 people in 2000 to 4.37 people in 2010.
Dr. Chua believes that there has in effect been a “backlog” of demand created by the inability of supply to catch up with rising demand over the past decade, and thus the upcoming supply (together with immigration) will merely result in a relieving of this backlog and a balancing of long term supply and demand, with the average household size falling back to its long term average of 4.08 with a population
of 5.5 million by 2015.
The large upcoming supply will thus not crash the market but instead help to correct the longer term shortage of housing, and Dr. Chua forecasts that the PPI will still record an average growth of 1.8% till 2015 (based on a population growth target of 6.5 million by 2050). If the population increases to 5.5 million
by 2015, Dr. Chua forecasts a continuing deficit in housing stock, thus pushing up prices by 7.5% per year.
Dr. Chua’s bottomline is that no matter what the immigration levels are, we will not see a dip in the PPI (barring an external shock).
He also recommends that policymakers continue to release land to support a supply of 16,000 to 24,000 housing units per year. My thoughts on Dr. Chua’s arguments I think Dr. Chua’s “residual demand” argument is interesting and introduces the notion of a long term demand backlog caused by the inability of supply to catch up with our population growth over the last decade (mainly driven by immigration). I’m not sure, however, about his forecast of a steadily rising PPI.
First, while the upcoming supply may serve to balance out the demand backlog in the long term, I think that in the short term there can still be a serious case of indigestion by a large amount of supply coming onto the market over a short time period.
Second, Dr. Chua takes the current price levels as fair and then forecasts the matching of supply and demand going forward. Could the current price levels already reflect a severe supply shortage situation, and correct to “fairer” levels when the new supply comes online? Markets are made at the margin, and prices are determined when marginal demand meets marginal supply.
Thirdly, there could also be different outcomes for different segments of the market. For example, the rental market for shoebox units is predicated on the continuing inflow of professional immigrants, which will be affected if this does not happen.
Fourthly, as Dr. Chua points out himself, in the short term the PPI is largely driven by sentiment and not by movements in supply. We could potentially see external shocks coming from a Developed world recession,
European crisis etc., which would impact Singapore’s open economy negatively.
At the same time, many international investors are also starting to see Singapore and the Singapore Dollar in particular as a “safe haven”. This could lead to foreigners continuing to support the high end market, as
we’ve seen in Hong Kong with the influx of Chinese buyers. With so much uncertainty in the markets, I
believe investors should adopt a cautious attitude, but be on the lookout for opportunities – as we saw during the last Global Financial Crisis, the window for buying low can come and go quickly!
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