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研究報告:交易量今年首季減20%至25% 本地私宅價格整體趨穩

(2011-03-29 00:21:13) 下一個

龔慧婷 (2011-03-29)

  分析師說,私宅價格已出現趨軟跡象,顯示降溫措施已開始生效,政府短期內推出新降溫措施的可能性不大。

  最新的房地產研究報告顯示,與去年第四季比較,私宅交易量在今年第一季減少了20至25%,整體價格已趨穩,有分析師猜測,政府在短期內再推出新降溫措施的可能性不大。

  萊坊(Knight Frank)研究部主管方寶順在其研究報告中更指出,整體私宅價格(包括由發展商直接售賣的新單位、樓花轉售和轉售私宅)大致已趨穩,特別是大眾私宅價格已出現趨軟跡象,顯示降溫措施已開始生效,政府應該不會再出手。

  他指出,今年首季的住宅房地產價格,上下的波動不超過2%,已經穩定下來,達到了政府希望讓房地產價格維持穩定和可持續發展的目標。

 

  他也預測,今年全年,大眾私宅的價格將下跌最多達5%。

  昨天發布新報告的還有世邦魏理仕(CBRE)和戴德梁行(DTZ)。

  世邦魏理仕指出,在今年第一季,由發展商直接出售的私宅,估計介於3200至3400個單位之間,比去年第四季售出的4241個單位,少了20至25%。除了成交量減少,與去年底比較,新私宅價格也大致維持平穩。

  方寶順也發現,不少示範單位的參觀者減少,與去年下半年火熱的情況相去甚遠。在第一季,發展上每個月平均賣出約1100個新單位,比2010年的平均1382個單位少了約12%。

  雖然降溫措施後,買家開始采觀望態度,成交量下跌是預期中的事,但成交量下跌的幅度,沒有分析師較早前預期的大。

  售價比之前稍降

  盡管如此,方寶順昨天也指出,整體價格,尤其是大眾私宅的價格,已開始趨軟。在一些情況下,發展商開始推出一些“好康”,如現金回扣禮券和為最早購屋者可享有特別折扣。一些新項目在最近推出新單位時,售價也比之前的一些單位稍微便宜一點。

  根據萊坊截至22日的數據,在首季,高檔共管公寓價格季比上漲2.1%,平均成交價是每平方英尺2270元;超高檔豪宅價格稍下跌0.3%,達3229元;中檔私宅成交價上漲最多,達8.5%,達1670元;大眾私宅價格隻上漲2.2%,達900元,與去年第四季3.6%比較,漲幅收窄。

  方寶順說,第一季,中檔私宅的漲幅比第四季的1.6%漲幅大,但主要由東海岸一些有海景的公寓帶動,若加入其他地區比較,整體價格上漲的幅度其實很小。

  他認為,接下來,隨著更多發展商推出更多新項目,價格估計會進一步趨軟。

  在第一季,總價讓人覺得較負擔的起的“迷你型”單位,依舊受到市場歡迎。此外,一些地點好,靠近地鐵站的項目也賣得不錯。

  世邦魏理仕的報告也顯示,第一季賣得好的項目有靠近火車站的Spottiswoode 18,已賣出251個單位中的90%,平均尺價2000元,此外,瀕水項目Waterfront Isle(561個單位)和靠近三巴旺地鐵站的Canberra Residences(320個單位),也分別賣出75%的單位,尺價分別為990和830元。

  高檔買家依舊在等待時機進場,因此,豪宅項目隻零星賣出一些單位。

  世邦魏理仕私宅部執行董事陳金道也猜測,一些可能在第二季登場的新項目,包括弗洛拉通道(Flora Drive)的Hedges Park、基裏尼路(Killiney Road)上的The Boutiq、湯申路上段的共管公寓和Luxus Hills有地私宅的第五期項目。

  陳金道說:“假設經濟穩定,第二季與第一季的發展步伐相同,那麽,在第二季,新單位的成交量可能介於3000至3500個單位之間,價格相信不會有顯著的波動。”


《聯合早報》

S’pore private apartment prices climb to record high in first quarter

Mass market prices of private apartments in Singapore have climbed to record highs in the first quarter of this year, mainly driven by demand from mainland Chinese buyers.

Average values of properties are now at S$1,935 per square foot for prime areas, and S$1,043 for non-prime areas, the highest since the first quarter of 2008, according to a release from Jones Lang LaSalle.

Prime market property sales continue to be dominated by foreigners, with Chinese, Indonesian and Malaysian buyers taking at least half of the sales in the first quarter of 2011.

Chinese buyers have overtaken Malaysians in purchasing prime residential units and were only second to Indonesian buyers.

Chinese buyers took up the largest share for mass market units, at 63 per cent, priced between S$500,000 and S$1.5 million.

Their share of units priced above S$5 million in central and prime districts was at 32 per cent.

“The surge in Chinese buyers in Singapore coincided with the policy tightening in China. While we do not expect a repeat of what is observed this past quarter, we can expect the number of Chinese buyers to continue at a healthy level as seen in previous quarters as the fiscal and monetary policy in China remains conducive to overseas investment by the wealthier Chinese” said Dr Chua Yang Liang, head of research for South-East Asia and Singapore at Jones Lang LaSalle.

While resale capital values for luxury prime and typical prime properties saw marginal increases, capital values in the Central and East Coast regions have enjoyed growth of between 2 to 2.5 per cent compared with the same quarter last year.

Rental values in the Central and East Coast regions have remained stable from levels in the fourth quarter of 2010 while prime properties saw rental values only growing marginally at 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter from last year.

Rental demand for smaller units softened while larger four-bedroom units in prime districts were the only residential unit type to see an increase in rental value for this quarter.

Head of Residential at Jones Lang LaSalle, Ms Jacqueline Wong, said; “The preference of the expatriate community is for larger four bedroom apartments of at least 2,800 sq ft. The smaller size units are not particularly attractive as the majority of middle and upper management families relocating prefer spacious 4 bedroom units that come with entertainment areas.”

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 30 Mar 2011

Residential property market rationalised by cooling measures

Mar 29, 2011 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
 
  Between 3,200 and 3,400 private homes were sold in Q1, down 20 to 25 percent from the 4,241 units sold in Q4 last year, according to CB Richard Ellis (CBRE).

The commercial property services firm said that home prices in the first quarter remained stable, as the cooling measures implemented on 13 January “rationalised (the) residential market”.

Some of the developments that attracted buyers in the first quarter were projects located near existing or future Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) stations, as well as in places earmarked as potential growth areas. For instance, 90 percent (around 251) of the units were sold at Spottiswoode 18, which is adjacent to Tanjong Pagar Railway. Canberra Residences, which is within walking distance to Sembawang MRTstation, were nearly 75 percent sold, at an average price of S$830 psf.

Meanwhile, activity in the high-end market remained subdued, as property players waited for the right opportunity to enter. Isolated units from various luxury projects were sold, with top-line prices achieved by a unit of The Orchard Residences at S$4,258 psf, as well as three units of Scotts Square at between S$4,119 psf and S$4,646 psf. A joint venture (JV) partnership between Lippo Group and CLSA Capital Partners also sold the remaining 14 units at the 26-unit The Holland Collection, at around S$50 million. This worked out to nearly S$1,600 psf for the collection of two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments.

CBRE also said that since the return of the executive condominium (EC) in October 2010 after a five-year hiatus, some 1,580 ECs have been sold, comprising 71.9 percent of the 2,199 EC units launched. Small-format units also remained popular among homebuyers in Q1, with Loft@Holland, Loft@ Stevens and Palmera East being fully sold at an average price of S$2,100 psf, S$1,960 psf and S$1,255 psf respectively.

Developers showed confidence in the market with their keen purchases of sites in Q1; the most contested site under the GLS programme was a condo site at Bishan Street 14. It was acquired by CapitaLand for S$550.1 million. The company also acquired the 51,185 sq ft Marine Point site for S$100.68 million (S$1,056 psf ppr), while Novelty Group successfully acquired Newton View for S$147.60 million (approximately S$1,403 psf ppr).

“Moving on to the second quarter, some of the new launches to be expected are Hedges Park at Flora Drive, The Boutiq at Killiney Road, a condominium at Upper Thomson Road and Phase 5 of Luxus Hills landed project,” said Mr. Joseph Tan, Executive Director for Residential at CBRE.

“Assuming a stable economy and that the market moves at the same pace as the first quarter, new home sales volume will be around 3,000 to 3,500 units in Q2 2011, with no significant fluctuations in home prices.”

Home prices slip but the 'centre' still holds

Central region resists overall dip for now, but luxury market also expected to stay flat.

Thu, Mar 31, 2011
The Business Times

By Kalpana Rashiwala

SINGAPORE - Prices of completed private apartments and condos have slipped slightly, overall, as the government's cooling measures made themselves felt. But those in the most posh part of town are still holding their own.

Latest flash estimates for February from the National University of Singapore show a weaker month-on-month performance in price indices compared to January.

'The Jan 13 cooling measures are certainly working,' said Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng. 'The lower loan-to- value limit has affected investors with outstanding housing loans even if they have some financial capacity to purchase another residential property.'

NUS's overall Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) dipped 0.4 per cent month on month in February, a reversal of a gain of 2.9 per cent posted in January.

The sub-index for the Central region - home to Singapore's choicest residential districts (1-4 and 9-11) - rose one per cent month on month in February, a slower rise than the 3.1 per cent gain recorded in January.

The sub-index for the Non-Central region (where suburban mass-market condos are located) declined 1.5 per cent in February over the preceding month, in contrast with a 2.8 per cent appreciation in January.

Mr Tan predicts that private home prices in Singapore are likely to drift at current levels - 'unless the government opens the immigration tap again and removes some of these very severe cooling measures such as the seller's stamp duty rates and 60 per cent LTV for those with existing housing loans'.

Meanwhile, prices in the Central region have risen at a faster clip in the first two months of this year since end-2010 than in the Non-Central region. This marks a reversal of last year's pattern.

As a result, the SRPI for the Central region has finally surpassed its pre-global financial crisis peak of November 2007, albeit by just 0.1 per cent.

NUS's indices are produced by the university's Institute of Real Estate Studies and cover only completed non-landed private homes. The February 2011 flash estimate for the Central region index is up 4.1 per cent from the end of last year. This is a bigger gain than the 1.3 per cent year-to-date appreciation in the index for the Non-Central region.

The February Non-Central region index is up 18.8 per cent from its pre-crisis peak in January 2008.

The overall SRPI has appreciated 2.5 per cent year to date and is 11.5 per cent higher than its November 2007 peak.

February flash estimates reflect year-on-year increases of 10.3 per cent for the Central region, 13.1 per cent for the Non-Central region and 11.9 per cent for the overall index.

International Property Advisor (IPA) chief executive Ku Swee Yong said that prices of projects such as St Thomas Suites and Trillium in the prime districts, which were completed towards the end of last year, have posted price gains as buyers viewing the finished projects have found their quality better than expected.

'Clients whom we have brought for viewing for other projects like 8 Napier and Parkview Eclat have also been impressed by the quality of finishings,' he added.

Despite the NUS SRPI for the Central region outperforming that for the Non-Central region in February, Mr Ku is doubtful that this trend will prevail for the whole of this year.

'Unfortunately, wealth does not trickle from the bottom to the top,' he said. He does not expect the luxury condo market to outshine the suburban market in 2011 unless 'we see an influx of more high net worth individuals into Singapore both as tenants and buyers, and bankers receive their one and two-year bonuses again', he added.

The luxury market is likely to remain flat this year in terms of both prices and transactions, Mr Ku predicts.

Last year, out of the 16,292 private homes developers sold, only about 100 were above $3,000 per square foot.

'Foreigners are still scouting for buys but are not coming back to the high-end market the way they were in 2007,' he added.

Agreeing, Knight Frank's Mr Tan said: 'The foreign contingent is not back in full force. And there's still a good selection of units in prime district projects available from developers, which will put pressure on prices. For these reasons, I don't see a need for further cooling measures.'

This article was first published in The Business Times.

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