走向深淵

A Bumpy Ride Ahead for the US Economy and Your Jobs

 

Buckle up, please.  We are heading towards a cliff.  Mark today's date: September 7, 2008.  We are making history today.

As many of you might have learned over the weekend, the US government took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac overnight. This is a drastic measure intended to save the slumping US economy, mired by foreclosures, job losses, and credit crunch.  We are in uncharted water right now.

It was reported that 9% of all US mortgages are behind schedule.  That’s kind of scary since almost 1 out 10 US households is on the way to short sale/foreclosure in the future.  Although I said “the writing is on the wall” for the housing market in WXC's Career forum months ago, I am still shocked by the magnitude of such a landslide.  If you can’t afford a house, do not buy one!  If you have to sell your house, mark it at the right price and get out quickly before your neighbor does the same thing.

Last week the US unemployed rate crept up to 6.1%, which was a record in five years.  That means the jobs you and I have now are in danger; new graduates will face fierce competition from laid-off old-timers; more Chinese professionals will go back to China for better opportunities there, and foreigners without a green card in the US will be left between a rock and a hard place.  I won’t say that China will be immune to the worldwide recession.  But it is one of a few bright spots in the global picture.

Moreover, more banks will collapse before the pendulum swings back.  Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers are playing for time (and a buyer).  Once these or other investment banks shut their doors, it would trigger an avalanche on the Wall Street and the main street.  This, in turn, will cause more job cuts, more housing blues, more severe credit shortage, and the vicious cycle feeds off of itself until we reach a new balance in economy that is health and sustainable.  I believe that the greediness of Wall Street dragged the whole economy into this turmoil and a paradigm shift is needed to redistribute the profits and risks.

How should we weather the storm?  Well, first, cut down on your non-job-related web surfing time including visiting WXC.  Call your contacts to get a fresh look at the financial health of your professional sector.  Polish your CV for a rainy day.  Last but not the least, think hard on your career goals.  The recession might cause a setback or two on your professional advancement.  It might also weed out your competitors who are not up to the challenge.  Remember, “The mark of greatness is survival. He laughs best who laughs last.”

As to the debate of career woman vs. house wife, the two camps might switch places during the ongoing bumpy rides and "the campers" therein might have to walk in each other's shoes to sort things out.

If you ask my opinion about the debate, I will claim that career success and family values are vital cogs of a functional family.  Let them move in sync.

One muggle