2008年諾貝爾經濟獎得主評Joe the Plumber-共和黨新偶像 (圖)

Paul Krugman。Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times


紐約時報專欄作家，今年諾貝爾經濟獎獲得者PAUL KRUGMAN的文章，The Real Plumbers
of Ohio，OP-ED COLUMNIST，By PAUL KRUGMAN，Published: October 20, 2008


40年前，尼克鬆總統發明了卓越的市場銷售策略。利用美國國內的分歧-越南分歧，
文化變化方麵的分歧，最重要的是種族分裂-他能夠重塑共和黨的品牌。富豪的黨被
重新包裝為“無聲的大多數”的黨，普通人-白人，不用說-不喜歡社會發生變化。

這是一個成功的模式。偉大的是，新包裝並不需要改變產品的任何實際內容-事實
上，共和黨能夠繼續贏得大選，盡管其實際政策變得更加親富豪，比以往任何時候
更不利美國的工薪階層。

參議員麥凱恩的策略，在這競選的最後階段，是基於這種信念，過去的公式仍然有
生命力。

因此，我們見到莎拉佩林表達她訪問“親美”的地區的喜悅(注，指佩林上周在北卡
時說那裏是pro-America)-是的，我們住在新澤西州中部的人都是叛徒。與此同時，
我們見到麥凱恩把J. Wurzelbacher，就是那個Joe the Plumber，-曾在奧巴馬的競
選活動中質問民主黨總統候選人將增加他的納稅-作為他攻擊奧巴馬的經濟建議的
核心。

當事實證明，保守派的新偶像存在幾個問題，如沒有得到營業許可，將奧巴馬與
Sammy Davis Jr.相比較時，保守派又扮演受害人的角色：看看有多少傲慢的精英仇
恨這個普通人？

但是實際上，對於俄亥俄州的水暖工，和美國的一般工薪階層，實際情況如何呢？

首先，他們沒有在掙大錢。人們可能還記得，在一個早期的民主黨辯論中，美國廣
播公司的查爾斯吉布森提議，一個中產階級的收入是 $20，0000/年。把這個數字
告訴給那個俄亥俄州的水暖工：根據勞工統計局2007年5月職業收入報告，俄亥俄
州的“plumbers-管道工， pipefitters和steamfitters”每年的平均收入是$47,930。

第二，他們的實際收入實際上停滯或在下降，即使在假定良好的年頭裏。布什政府
向我們保證，經濟在2007年蓬勃發展-但在2007年的報告中，俄亥俄州的管道工人
平均收入隻高於2000年報告的15.5%，不足以跟上中西部地區17.7%的消費物價增長。
俄亥俄州水暖工的狀況反映了全國的情況：2007年中等家庭的收入，調整通貨膨脹
後，低於2000年。

第三，俄亥俄州的管道工們已經越來越難獲得健康保險，尤其是許多在小公司工作
的工匠們。據愷撒家庭基金會資料，在2007年隻有45%的少於10名雇員的公司提供
健康保險，低於2000年的57%。

記住，所有這些數據僅涉及2007年-這是最近幾年的好光景。現在，“布什繁榮"，
象以往一樣，已經結束了，我們可以看到它取得了令人沮喪的成績：有史以來第
一次，經濟增長沒有提高大多數美國人在先前的經濟高峰期時的收入。

從那時起，當然，事情已經迅速下滑，數以百萬計的美國人已經失去他們的工作和
自己的家園。而且，所有指標顯示事情會在幾個月和幾年後變得更糟。

所有這一切究竟對總統候選人意味著什麽？誰是真正在為俄亥俄州的水暖工說話？

麥凱恩先生先生稱，奧巴馬的政策將導致經濟災難。但是布什總統的政策已經導致
了災難-無論他將怎麽說，麥凱恩提出在所有的基本方麵繼續布什總統的政策，他
分享布什的反政府，反調控的哲學。

那種斷言，基於喬-管道工的投訴，在奧巴馬領導下的美國工薪階層將麵臨較高的稅
收，的真相是什麽？實際上，奧巴馬提議僅對2%收入最高的人提高所得稅-也包括,
年收入,在扣除後，$182,400 的戶主。

也許有水暖工可以賺這樣多的錢，或他們可能因為奧巴馬提議的適度增加對紅利和
資本收益的稅收而而減少收入-美國是一個大的國家，也許會有一個高收入並擁有
大量股票的水暖工存在。但是，典型的管道工收入較低，而不是更高，根據奧巴馬
的稅收政策，管道工們將有一個更好的機會獲得醫療保險。

我不想暗示，每個人都將在奧巴馬的稅收計劃中得到更好的待遇。喬-水暖工幾乎可
以肯定過得更好，但象Richie這樣的對衝基金經理將會受到沉重打擊。

說的就是這一點。無論今天的G.O.P.是什麽，它不是美國工薪階層的政黨。

www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/opinion/20krugman.html

Paul Krugman
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Paul Robin Krugman (February 28, 1953) is an Americaneconomist, columnist,
author and intellectual.[1] He is a professor of economics and internationalaffairs 
at Princeton University, and a columnist for The New York Times. In2008, Krugman 
won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences "for hisanalysis of trade patterns 
and location of economic activity".[2][3]Krugman is well-known in academia for his 
work in international economics,including trade theory, economic geography, and 
international finance.



Biography
Krugman was born into a Jewish family and grew up on Long Island in New York.He is 
married to Robin Wells, a fellow professor at Princeton, his second wife.They have 
no children.[4][5]Krugman says that his interest in economics began with Isaac 
Asimov'sFoundation novels, in which the social scientists of the future use
"psychohistory" to attempt to save civilization. As psychohistory doesnot exist at 
present, Krugman turned to economics, which he considered the nextbest thing.[6]

Economic career
Krugman earned his B.S. in economics from Yale University in 1974 and his Ph.D.from 
MIT in 1977. From 1982 to 1983, he spent a year working at the Reagan WhiteHouse as 
a staff member of the Council of Economic Advisers. He taught at YaleUniversity, MIT, 
UC Berkeley, the London School of Economics, and StanfordUniversity before joining 
the faculty of Princeton University in 2000. He is amember of the Group of Thirty 
international economic body and the Council onForeign Relations.When Bill Clinton 
came into office in 1993, he considered Krugman for a leadingpost; Krugman was flown 
out for a meeting in Arkansas. Krugman'soutspokenness was reported to be "the main 
reason the Clintonadministration didn't offer him a job."[7] Krugman says he would 
nothave been interested in such a job; he told Newsweek, "I'mtemperamentally unsuited 
for that kind of role. You have to be very good atpeople skills, biting your tongue 
when people say silly things."[7] In his New York Times blog, Krugman repeated that 
statement, saying that he was"temperamentally unsuited to politics".[8]

Nobel Prize
Krugman was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, the soleawardee 
for 2008. This award, created in 1968 by the Swedish central bank inAlfred Nobel’s 
memory, includes a prize of about $1.4 million and was awardedto Krugman for his work 
associated with New Trade Theory.[9][10] In the words ofthe prize committee, "By 
having integrated economies of scale into explicitgeneral equilibrium models, Paul 
Krugman has deepened our understanding of thedeterminants of trade and the location 
of economic activity."[11]
Academic contributions
Paul Krugman has done extensive work 
in international economics, including workon international trade, economic geography, 
andinternational finance. Accordingto the Research Papers in Economics project, he is 
among the 50 most influentialeconomists in the world today.[12] Krugman's International 
Economics: Theoryand Policy, co-authored with Maurice Obstfeld is a standard 
introductorytextbook on international economics. He also writes on economic topics 
for thegeneral public, sometimes on international economic topics but also on income
distribution and public policy. He is generally considered a neo-Keynesianeconomist,[13] 
with his views outlined in his books such as Peddling Prosperity.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/opinin/20krugman.html?em