亂彈煤井新聞 -- 總統登基與金融部門崩潰

While Americans spent $1.5 million on the first black president's inaugural, the stock market was not happy, and all three US indexs plunged more than 4%. The banking sector got their worst day in history.

1. State Street Crop.: plungnd 59 percent to 14.89
2. Citigroup: fell 20 percent to its 17-year-low $2.8
3. Bank of America: lost 29 percent to $5.10
4. Morgan Stanley: fell $2.49, or 16 percent to $13.10
5. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: Fell 13.85 or 18.96% dollars to $59.20
6. Wells Fargo & Co: one pick of Warren Buffet, plunged 23.82% to $14.23
7. JPMorgan Chase & Co.: the evergreen in US finance world, also fell 20.73% to $18.09
8. Roy Bank of Scotland: 75 owned by British govenment after losing up to $41.2 billion in 2008, fell 69 percent in one day
9. The bank stocks: accounts for less than 10 percent of the SP 500 index for the first time since 1992. Believed it or not, at the end of 2006, banks made up 22 percent of the stock market bench
10. As to 3 indexes in US, Dow plunged 4.01% to 7,949.09; Nasdaq fell 5.78% to 1,440.86; and S&P 500 was cut 5.28% to 805.22.

Is finance a good buy now? I don't think so. The story of BAC, C and GS still does not reach the end yet. Would one of them collapse, nationalized or split in the end? If the market would go to the 1992 level finally, most stocks are still not cheap right now. There are still more room on downside if we consider in the long term view. When will it end? Nobody knows. That's why while millions of people celebrate the inauguration of president Obama, Wall Street smells something worse and special ahead.In middle term, perhaps there will be one bounce to welcome Mr Obama's 100-day-plan! The key is how long could it last, and will it sustain and bring us out of the dark! Americans have lost their confidence, ans started to feel fear of unpredictable future. Are we really one like the Sunday party advocated? It needs time for people to think about it

Then, how are  the important earnings issued today? Here is the data:

1. IBM Corp. give better-than-expected 09 outlook, predicated at least $9.20 per share in profit compared with $8.75 expected by Wall Street. Believed it now, you will see adjustment later!
   
2. IBM's net income in 4th quarter of 2008 was $4.4 billion/$3.28 per share compared with expected $3.03 per share. But its revenue fell 6 percent to $27 billion, short of the expectation of $28.1 billion
   
3. Johnson & Johnson 4Q profit rises 14 percent while revenue fell 4.9 percent to $15.18 billion. However, it gave one outlook weaker than expected.

So the earning looks good, right? But the effect of financial crisis to industries just started: the drop of revenue is not a good sign though the profit was achieved by many measures adopted by the management. Industry will lag behind the finance sector, and the bad just kick off if you read both IBM and J&J's revenue carefully and again and again. Be prepared, be cautious, and then be safe!!!