1987 vs 2007 曆史會重演嗎? (Update)

1987年的市場大崩盤總是熊派愛抄的熱門話題,

現在的熊氣衝天和三月初市場剛大跌時是何其相似. 那會就已經有人對1987 和2007 作了對比.
看看當時的對比很有意思, 轉貼如下:

1987 versus 2007

I keep repeating I am not a fan of the 1987 parallel to 2007. I am not saying its impossible -- just less likely than other potential parallels (My choice is 1973, Doug Kass' is 1937).

Yet many readers keep drawing my attention to the 1987 conclusion. As a service to those of you who find this compelling, here is an overlay of the chart several of you have sent in.

Dow Industrials 1986-87 - 2006-07

看上去真的很嚇人.


結果,有好事者後來又重新作了對比, 不同的是歸一成同樣的尺度:


UPDATE: April 20, 2007 6:21am

This chart (courtesy of Charles) shows the scale of the run up between the two eras to be very different . . .

Dow 1987 and 2007, scaled to 100
click for larger graph

 
原來有這麽大差別的圖, 也可以弄的如此相似. (對比上圖) 隻要不成比例關係的放大就可以了.

所以, 不要自己嚇自己.