綜合理解製裁俄羅斯和YELLEN的講話

The FOMC statement triggered a modest bounce in afternoon trading. While the minor tweaks from the June statement seemed a bit more hawkish than expected, they did not have any impact on policy normalization/exit strategy expectations. Consumer Discretionary and Financials were the standouts today. Utilities and Consumer Staples were the worst performers. Treasuries came under pressure with the curve in bearish steepening mode. The dollar rallied against the majors.

o Q2 GDP stronger:

§ Q2 GDP surprised to the upside, expanding at a 4% annual rate. This was a full point ahead of consensus expectations. In addition, Q1 was revised up to (2.1%) from (2.9%), while there were also favorable revisions to 2013 that left second half growth near 4%. Personal spending was a bright spot in Q2, increasing 2.5% after a 1.2% gain in Q1, ahead of consensus expectations for a 1.9% increase. Business fixed investment increased 5.5%, while there was also a favorable revision for Q1. In addition, residential investment rose 7.5%. Inventories added ~1.7 points to growth after subtracting ~1.2 points in Q1. Government spending rose 1.6%, driven by a 3.1% increase in state and local spending. While exports rose 9.5%, trade was still a drag on growth. Finally, the core PCE accelerated to 2% from 1.2% in Q1, leaving nominal growth at 6%. While the GDP report is backward-looking and the market was unable to sustain its early strength, sentiment surrounding the print was still upbeat as it highlighted the underlying traction in normalized weather.

o FOMC statement slightly more hawkish:

§ There were relatively few tweaks to the July FOMC statement. While they seemed to be a tad more hawkish than expected, they really did not have a meaningful impact on policy normalization/exit strategy expectations. As expected there was a slight upgrade in the language surrounding the labor market recovery. However, this was hedged to some extent with the Fed noting that a range of other labor market indicators suggests there remains a significant underutilization of labor resources. The Fed also again called out the slower pace of the housing recovery. While there were thoughts that the benign June CPI print would leave the language surrounding inflation unchanged, the statement instead noted that inflation has moved somewhat closer to the FOMC’s long-run objective. It added that the FOMC sees a somewhat diminished likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2%. Guidance language was unchanged, with rates expected to stay lower for a considerable period of time after QE. However, this was cited as one of the reasons for the dissent from Philadelphia President Plosser.

o Utilities, Consumer Staples worst performers:

§ The Utilities sector was the worst performer today. The sharp backup in rates that followed the better GDP print was the big overhang. Consumer Staples also underperformed. While there was no specific catalyst, dollar strength was mentioned as an overhang. KO (1.8%) led a broad-based pullback in beverages. Tobacco was weaker the miss from LO (0.6%) in focus. Telecom was a laggard following yesterday’s big run-up on the WIN (4.2%) REIT news. S (3%) was unable to sustain an initial post-earnings push higher (conference call seemed to weigh). The Materials sector was weaker despite the well-received Q2 results and guidance from X +19.4%. Precious metals stocks were mostly lower. While the Industrials sector finished higher, earnings sentiment remained downbeat with RBC (7.3%) and ROK (5.5%) the latest disappointments.

o Consumer Discretionary and Financials the standouts:

§ Consumer Discretionary outperformed with some help from retail with the S&P Retail Index +1.2%. KSS +3.1% was a standout. There did not seem to be anything specific behind the outsized strength in specialty apparel names such as ARO +5.4%, AEO +3.8% and ANF +2.4%. Banks helped the Financials with the BKX +0.9%. The backup in rates and signs of better recovery traction were the go-to excuses.