應該refinance嗎?

幫朋友問問.

她現有5/1 ARM 4.5% 72萬貸款,還有一年半到期,可是擔心那時的貸款利息上升,所以想現在refinance.

現在有super conforming loan 5/1 ARM 5.25%,她應該refinance嗎?

我幫她算了一下:如果現在refinance到5.25%,17個月她要損失約$9000,如果一年半後利息漲到6%,再過1年半後她才可以打平(共3年),那麽後麵2年她可以少付利息.可是如果貸款利息仍是在6%以下,她基本上不省錢,還有可能多付利息.

她現在refinance的理由是可以protect her from worst senarios (interest rate goes higher than 7%),也就是吃點眼前吃虧,保得晚上睡安穩覺(也隻有3年半的安穩覺哈).

我認為她現在不必refinance.我的理由是現在聯邦利息隻有2%,銀行要5%,利潤很高.因為銀行以前screwed up, now they are making up the money by charging high mortgage interest rates.在彎曲,房價如此高,如果interest rate goes to 7%,沒有幾個人買得起房子,那彎曲的房地產市場就會崩潰.政府不會允許銀行如此人為的貪婪行為.

So this is basically a risk management question. I know nobody has a crystal ball for the future, but some meaningful analyze can help to make wise decisions.

請大家踴躍發言.

One from someone works in mortgage backed security:

bank charging 5% is not they want to make money, it is because they are short cash in their balance sheet and unwilling to lend. So if the liquidity stress is eased in one year time and the  fed fund rate stay low, bank will lower the lending rate. But the problem is when liquidity stress is over, fed will consider inflation and may raise rates again. The net effect may cancel each other and make lending rate stay high/unchanged.

This is why I am not clear about the direction of lending rate. California housing market was the worst hit in this crisis and housing price in average is going down 14% per year. House value in your area remained high is an exception to the over all market.

In terms of ARM, i think the lending rate will be more or less stable or even lower in the next 18 month, so I am more agree with you not to refinance now. But again, this one I can't predict as market is so uncertain...