彎曲房價之我見

我們搬到彎曲十幾年了。來得早不如來得巧。我們剛搬來是正是彎曲房價開始上揚時，又因為是工作調動，公司有很好的relocation packege,買房有很多補貼。真是不買白不買，所以很快就買了房。自那以後就看著房價不停的漲了十幾年直到去年底。那麽今後幾年彎曲的房價會不會crash呢？

我認為今後幾年總的來說彎曲房價也許會持平,或小降，而不會像Los Vegas 或 Florid 等地那樣大跌。原因是：

1。彎曲集天時地利、人和的優勢：氣候好、自然條件優越是天時地利；公司雲集、高工資工作機會多是人和。俺以前也在東部待過好些年。個人看法是北加州的氣候、地理、環境得天獨厚，是居家的上選。就衝著上天給的這麽好的條件，今天有高科技在這裏發展起來，明天高科技沒了，也會有其他的什麽東東在這裏發展。就是都沒了，有錢人也會將此地建成他們的樂園. 對人類來說，mother nature is the queen.

2。Limited land vs. big demand created by job opportunities.
3。也是與LV，FL很不同的是：very few speculators (投資房），it has lowest % of investment properties compare to all other hot real estate areas. As long as the job is here, the housing market will not crash. At this time, over all economy is good for the companies in the Valley, so it's very unlikely the job market will disappear like 2000 hi-tech bubble burst. Even during the hi-tech crash years, Silicon Valley's house price (lagged 2 years) only dipped a little bit in 2002 (less than 5%) and recovered quickly after.

[日出江花紅]

好文。下麵是不是到漢中了？